Football · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · 06/09, 20:00
Prediction: Puerto Nuevo vs CA Lugano
Team pages: Puerto Nuevo · CA Lugano
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.83Total
Puerto Nuevo0.9
CA Lugano0.93
1X2
Puerto Nuevo
Draw
CA Lugano
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 56%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
0-0 17%
Recent form · 10 last
Puerto Nuevo
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
CA Lugano
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Puerto Nuevo
2–1–3
CA Lugano
(6 last)
- CA Lugano3-0Puerto Nuevo
- CA Lugano1-0Puerto Nuevo
- Puerto Nuevo1-0CA Lugano
- Puerto Nuevo0-0CA Lugano
- CA Lugano0-4Puerto Nuevo
- CA Lugano3-2Puerto Nuevo
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Puerto Nuevo 1497 · CA Lugano 1549
| Puerto Nuevo | Draw | CA Lugano | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 35% | 33% |
| Market | 33% | 33% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.83 goals · Bet365 line 1.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CA Lugano (rating 1497 vs 1549).
- H2H favours CA Lugano: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 11.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Puerto Nuevo | CA Lugano | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 0.9 | 1 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/60/0% | 10/80/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.2 | 2.1 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6 / 0.3 | 5.5 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Puerto Nuevo 2–1–3 CA Lugano
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | CA Lugano | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Puerto Nuevo |
| 03/08/25 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | CA Lugano | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Puerto Nuevo |
| 19/04/25 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | Puerto Nuevo | 1-0 HT 0-0 | CA Lugano |
| 09/11/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | Puerto Nuevo | 0-0 HT 0-0 | CA Lugano |
| 08/06/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | CA Lugano | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Puerto Nuevo |
| 13/10/21 Argentina Primera D Metropolitana | CA Lugano | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Puerto Nuevo |
Standings · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · Primera C 2026, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sacachispas | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 31 | 19 | 45 |
| 2 | CA Lugano | 26 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 30 | 23 | 40 |
| 3 | Centro Espanol | 26 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 33 | 23 | 39 |
| 4 | Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn | 26 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 27 | 24 | 39 |
| 5 | Juventud Unida San Miguel | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 32 | 25 | 38 |
| 6 | Berazategui | 26 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 27 | 20 | 38 |
| 7 | Puerto Nuevo | 26 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 25 | 24 | 38 |
| 8 | Victoriano Arenas | 26 | 8 | 12 | 6 | 20 | 15 | 36 |
| 9 | Club Mercedes | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 26 | 22 | 36 |
| 10 | Defensores de Cambaceres | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 24 | 28 | 32 |
| 11 | Club Leandro N. Alem | 26 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 26 | 45 | 27 |
| 12 | JJ Urquiza | 26 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 23 | 24 |
| 13 | Deportivo Paraguayo | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 31 | 24 |
| 14 | Argentino de Rosario | 26 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 24 | 32 | 22 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Puerto Nuevo | CA Lugano |
|---|---|---|
| Club Leandro N. Alem | 3-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Defensores de Cambaceres | 0-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Juventud Unida San Miguel | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Sacachispas | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Berazategui | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Victoriano Arenas | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Centro Espanol | 0-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 2 L | 4 W 3 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Puerto Nuevo (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Puerto Nuevo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Club Leandro N. Alem Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 3-0 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 23/08 | Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 9 | L |
| 14/08 | Yupanqui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
2-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 09/08 | Juventud Unida San Miguel Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 31/07 | Sacachispas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 10 | W |
| 23/07 | Argentino de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 17/07 | Fenix Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 05/07 | Berazategui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 28/06 | Victoriano Arenas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
2-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 11 | W |
| 14/06 | Centro Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
CA Lugano
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Berazategui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 22/08 | Club Leandro N. Alem Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 16/08 | Lujan Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 09/08 | Victoriano Arenas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 31/07 | Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 25/07 | Centro Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 17/07 | Sportivo Barracas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
2-2 | 3-2 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 12/07 | Juventud Unida San Miguel Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 2 | D |
| 04/07 | JJ Urquiza Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 27/06 | Sacachispas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Puerto Nuevo vs CA Lugano?
According to our model, the most likely result is an CA Lugano win (34%). Probabilities: Puerto Nuevo 32%, draw 34%, CA Lugano 34%.
How many goals are expected in Puerto Nuevo vs CA Lugano?
The model expects 1.83 goals (Puerto Nuevo 0.9 · CA Lugano 0.93), with a 53% chance of under 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Puerto Nuevo vs CA Lugano?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.