Football · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · 29/08, 20:00

Prediction: Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn vs Victoriano Arenas

Team pages: Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn · Victoriano Arenas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.64Total

Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn0.96

Victoriano Arenas0.68

1X2

41% 35% 25%

Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn Draw Victoriano Arenas

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 50% Not both to score 56%

Most likely score

0-0 21%

Recent form · 10 last

Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Victoriano Arenas 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn 1–1–1 Victoriano Arenas (3 last)

Victoriano Arenas3-0Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn
Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn2-1Victoriano Arenas
Victoriano Arenas0-0Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn 1517 · Victoriano Arenas 1505

	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn	Draw	Victoriano Arenas
Our model	40%	37%	24%
Market	41%	33%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 1.64 goals · Bet365 line 1.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 80%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 11.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn	Victoriano Arenas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.8	0.4 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.2	0 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	0/90/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.6	2.4 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.2 / 0.5	5.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.15

X2.70

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.98

Under 1.751.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 1.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
04:14 +1’	2.15	2.70	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn 1–1–1 Victoriano Arenas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Victoriano Arenas	3-0 HT 1-0	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn
10/08/25 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn	2-1 HT 1-1	Victoriano Arenas
26/04/25 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Victoriano Arenas	0-0 HT 0-0	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn

Standings · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · Primera C 2026, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sacachispas	25	12	6	7	29	18	42
2	CA Lugano	25	10	9	6	29	22	39
3	Centro Espanol	25	10	8	7	32	22	38
4	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn	25	10	8	7	26	23	38
5	Berazategui	25	9	10	6	26	19	37
6	Club Mercedes	25	9	9	7	25	15	36
7	Victoriano Arenas	25	8	11	6	19	14	35
8	Juventud Unida San Miguel	25	9	8	8	28	24	35
9	Puerto Nuevo	25	8	11	6	22	24	35
10	Defensores de Cambaceres	25	7	7	11	21	28	28
11	Club Leandro N. Alem	25	7	6	12	26	42	27
12	JJ Urquiza	25	4	12	9	11	21	24
13	Deportivo Paraguayo	25	5	8	12	14	31	23
14	Argentino de Rosario	25	3	12	10	23	31	21

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn	Victoriano Arenas
Centro Espanol	0-2 L	1-0 W
JJ Urquiza	1-0 W	0-0 D
Club Mercedes	1-1 D	1-1 D
Deportivo Paraguayo	1-0 W	0-0 D
Club Leandro N. Alem	3-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 4 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/08	Centro Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	3	6	L
15/08	Canuelas FC Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-1	2-1	3	10	W
08/08	JJ Urquiza Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
04/08	Lujan Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	1	5	L
31/07	Club Mercedes Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	6	9	D
25/07	Deportivo Paraguayo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
04/07	Club Leandro N. Alem Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	3-0	1	4	W
28/06	Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	3-0	2	6	W
14/06	Juventud Unida San Miguel Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
06/06	Sacachispas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	5	13	D

Victoriano Arenas

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Berazategui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	6	1	W
15/08	General Lamadrid Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
09/08	CA Lugano Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
31/07	Centro Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	3	9	W
25/07	JJ Urquiza Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
17/07	Deportivo Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
12/07	Club Mercedes Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
05/07	Deportivo Paraguayo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
28/06	Puerto Nuevo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-2	1-2	6	11	L
13/06	Club Leandro N. Alem Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	4	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn vs Victoriano Arenas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn win (41%). Probabilities: Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn 41%, draw 35%, Victoriano Arenas 25%.

How many goals are expected in Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn vs Victoriano Arenas?

The model expects 1.64 goals (Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn 0.96 · Victoriano Arenas 0.68), with a 55% chance of under 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn vs Victoriano Arenas?

The model gives a 56% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.