Football · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · 12/07, 19:00
Prediction: Juventud Unida San Miguel vs CA Lugano
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.24Total
Juventud Unida San Miguel1.23
CA Lugano1.01
1X2
Juventud Unida San Miguel
Draw
CA Lugano
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Juventud Unida San Miguel
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
CA Lugano
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Juventud Unida San Miguel
0–2–4
CA Lugano
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Juventud Unida San Miguel 1510 · CA Lugano 1501
| Juventud Unida San Miguel | Draw | CA Lugano | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 31% | 29% |
| Market | 39% | 33% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.24 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours CA Lugano: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 12.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Juventud Unida San Miguel | CA Lugano | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.1 | 1.2 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.5 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.2 | 1.8 / 2.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.1 / 0.1 | 7.4 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Juventud Unida San Miguel 0–2–4 CA Lugano
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | CA Lugano | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Juventud Unida San Miguel |
| 20/11/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | CA Lugano | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Juventud Unida San Miguel |
| 19/06/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | Juventud Unida San Miguel | 0-0 HT 0-0 | CA Lugano |
| 25/09/23 Argentina Primera D Metropolitana | Juventud Unida San Miguel | 0-2 HT 0-2 | CA Lugano |
| 19/06/23 Argentina Primera D Metropolitana | CA Lugano | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Juventud Unida San Miguel |
| 23/05/23 Argentina Primera D Metropolitana | CA Lugano | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Juventud Unida San Miguel |
Standings · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · Primera C 2026, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sacachispas | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 14 | 31 |
| 2 | Centro Espanol | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 17 | 29 |
| 3 | Berazategui | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 22 | 14 | 29 |
| 4 | Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 21 | 16 | 28 |
| 5 | Victoriano Arenas | 18 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 16 | 11 | 26 |
| 6 | Puerto Nuevo | 18 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 17 | 18 | 26 |
| 7 | Club Mercedes | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 18 | 10 | 25 |
| 8 | CA Lugano | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 25 |
| 9 | Club Leandro N. Alem | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 32 | 23 |
| 10 | Juventud Unida San Miguel | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 19 | 21 |
| 11 | Defensores de Cambaceres | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 19 | 21 |
| 12 | Argentino de Rosario | 18 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 23 | 16 |
| 13 | Deportivo Paraguayo | 18 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 24 | 16 |
| 14 | JJ Urquiza | 18 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 18 | 15 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Juventud Unida San Miguel | CA Lugano |
|---|---|---|
| Sacachispas | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Argentino de Rosario | 3-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn | 2-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Berazategui | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| JJ Urquiza | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Club Mercedes | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Deportivo Paraguayo | 2-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 4 L | 2 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: CA Lugano (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Juventud Unida San Miguel
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Sacachispas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 7 | L |
| 27/06 | Argentino de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 14/06 | Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 08/06 | Berazategui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 31/05 | Victoriano Arenas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | Centro Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 16/05 | El Porvenir Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | JJ Urquiza Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 03/05 | Club Mercedes Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 25/04 | Deportivo Paraguayo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
2-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
CA Lugano
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | JJ Urquiza Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 27/06 | Sacachispas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 14/06 | Club Mercedes Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 06/06 | Argentino de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 30/05 | Deportivo Paraguayo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 23/05 | Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 11 | L |
| 16/05 | Leones de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
2-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 9 | D |
| 10/05 | Puerto Nuevo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 03/05 | Berazategui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 9 | L |
| 25/04 | Club Leandro N. Alem Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 9 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Juventud Unida San Miguel vs CA Lugano?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Juventud Unida San Miguel win (39%). Probabilities: Juventud Unida San Miguel 39%, draw 32%, CA Lugano 28%.
How many goals are expected in Juventud Unida San Miguel vs CA Lugano?
The model expects 2.24 goals (Juventud Unida San Miguel 1.23 · CA Lugano 1.01), with a 56% chance of over 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Juventud Unida San Miguel vs CA Lugano?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.