Football · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · 12/07, 20:30
Prediction: Club Mercedes vs Victoriano Arenas
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.88Total
Club Mercedes1.05
Victoriano Arenas0.83
1X2
Club Mercedes
Draw
Victoriano Arenas
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 57%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
0-0
Recent form · 10 last
Club Mercedes
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Victoriano Arenas
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Club Mercedes
1–2
Victoriano Arenas
(3 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Club Mercedes 1512 · Victoriano Arenas 1539
| Club Mercedes | Draw | Victoriano Arenas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 34% | 27% |
| Market | 39% | 34% | 27% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.88 goals · Bet365 line 1.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Victoriano Arenas: 2-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 11.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Club Mercedes | Victoriano Arenas | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 0.6 | 1.3 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.3 | 0.5 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 3.7 | 3 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.6 / 0.7 | 5.6 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Club Mercedes 1–0–2 Victoriano Arenas
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | Victoriano Arenas | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Club Mercedes |
| 24/11/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | Victoriano Arenas | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Club Mercedes |
| 22/06/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | Club Mercedes | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Victoriano Arenas |
Standings · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · Primera C 2026, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sacachispas | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 14 | 31 |
| 2 | Centro Espanol | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 17 | 29 |
| 3 | Berazategui | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 22 | 14 | 29 |
| 4 | Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 21 | 16 | 28 |
| 5 | Victoriano Arenas | 18 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 16 | 11 | 26 |
| 6 | Puerto Nuevo | 18 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 17 | 18 | 26 |
| 7 | Club Mercedes | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 18 | 10 | 25 |
| 8 | CA Lugano | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 25 |
| 9 | Club Leandro N. Alem | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 32 | 23 |
| 10 | Juventud Unida San Miguel | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 19 | 21 |
| 11 | Defensores de Cambaceres | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 19 | 21 |
| 12 | Argentino de Rosario | 18 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 23 | 16 |
| 13 | Deportivo Paraguayo | 18 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 24 | 16 |
| 14 | JJ Urquiza | 18 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 18 | 15 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Club Mercedes | Victoriano Arenas |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Paraguayo | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| Puerto Nuevo | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Club Leandro N. Alem | 2-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Defensores de Cambaceres | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Juventud Unida San Miguel | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Sacachispas | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 4 D 1 L | 2 W 3 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Club Mercedes
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Centro Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 27/06 | JJ Urquiza Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
4-0 | 5-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 14/06 | CA Lugano Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 06/06 | Deportivo Paraguayo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 30/05 | Puerto Nuevo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 23/05 | Club Leandro N. Alem Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 18/05 | Deportivo Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 09/05 | Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 03/05 | Juventud Unida San Miguel Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 26/04 | Sacachispas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
Victoriano Arenas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Deportivo Paraguayo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 6 | D |
| 28/06 | Puerto Nuevo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 10 | L |
| 13/06 | Club Leandro N. Alem Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 07/06 | Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 10 | W |
| 31/05 | Juventud Unida San Miguel Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 25/05 | Sacachispas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | Canuelas FC Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 09/05 | Argentino de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 03/05 | Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 26/04 | Berazategui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Club Mercedes vs Victoriano Arenas?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Club Mercedes win (39%). Probabilities: Club Mercedes 39%, draw 34%, Victoriano Arenas 27%.
How many goals are expected in Club Mercedes vs Victoriano Arenas?
The model expects 1.88 goals (Club Mercedes 1.05 · Victoriano Arenas 0.83), with a 52% chance of under 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Club Mercedes vs Victoriano Arenas?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.