Football · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · 11/07, 20:00
Prediction: El Porvenir vs Lujan
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.85Total
El Porvenir0.97
Lujan0.88
1X2
El Porvenir
Draw
Lujan
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 56%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
0-0
Recent form · 10 last
El Porvenir
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Lujan
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
El Porvenir
0–3–3
Lujan
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · El Porvenir 1507 · Lujan 1588
| El Porvenir | Draw | Lujan | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Market | 36% | 33% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.85 goals · Bet365 line 1.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lujan (rating 1507 vs 1588).
- H2H favours Lujan: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| El Porvenir | Lujan | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 0.6 | 1.7 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.2 | 1 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 60/40/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.2 | 2.1 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.5 / 0.2 | 5.1 / 0.7 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · El Porvenir 0–3–3 Lujan
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | Lujan | 1-1 HT 1-0 | El Porvenir |
| 03/10/25 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | Lujan | 1-0 HT 0-0 | El Porvenir |
| 27/09/25 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | El Porvenir | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Lujan |
| 13/08/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | Lujan | 0-0 HT 0-0 | El Porvenir |
| 23/03/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | El Porvenir | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Lujan |
| 02/07/22 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | El Porvenir | 2-3 HT 2-0 | Lujan |
Standings · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · Primera C 2026, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lujan | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 22 | 14 | 32 |
| 2 | Canuelas FC | 18 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 21 | 12 | 30 |
| 3 | Leones de Rosario | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 28 |
| 4 | Yupanqui | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 19 | 27 |
| 5 | General Lamadrid | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 18 | 17 | 27 |
| 6 | Sportivo Barracas | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 16 | 25 |
| 7 | Deportivo Espanol | 18 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 16 | 13 | 25 |
| 8 | El Porvenir | 18 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 15 | 13 | 24 |
| 9 | CA Atlas | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 17 | 22 |
| 10 | Central Cordoba de Rosario | 18 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 14 | 20 |
| 11 | CA Claypole | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 22 | 20 |
| 12 | Central Ballester | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 21 | 19 |
| 13 | Deportivo Muniz | 18 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 13 | 17 | 15 |
| 14 | Fenix | 18 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 20 | 14 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | El Porvenir | Lujan |
|---|---|---|
| General Lamadrid | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Leones de Rosario | 0-0 D | 2-0 W |
| CA Atlas | 0-1 L | 3-2 W |
| Canuelas FC | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Deportivo Muniz | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Deportivo Espanol | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 4 D 1 L | 5 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Lujan (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
El Porvenir
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | General Lamadrid Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 27/06 | Leones de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 13/06 | CA Atlas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 10 | L |
| 07/06 | Canuelas FC Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 30/05 | Deportivo Muniz Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 23/05 | Deportivo Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 16/05 | Juventud Unida San Miguel Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 10/05 | Central Cordoba de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 03/05 | CA Claypole Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 27/04 | Central Ballester Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
Lujan
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Fenix Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
2-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 29/06 | Sportivo Barracas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 14/06 | Yupanqui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 8 | W |
| 07/06 | General Lamadrid Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 9 | W |
| 30/05 | Leones de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 24/05 | CA Atlas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
2-2 | 3-2 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 17/05 | Deportivo Paraguayo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 10/05 | Canuelas FC Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 04/05 | Deportivo Muniz Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
2-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 26/04 | Deportivo Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in El Porvenir vs Lujan?
According to our model, the most likely result is a El Porvenir win (35%). Probabilities: El Porvenir 35%, draw 34%, Lujan 31%.
How many goals are expected in El Porvenir vs Lujan?
The model expects 1.85 goals (El Porvenir 0.97 · Lujan 0.88), with a 51% chance of under 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in El Porvenir vs Lujan?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.