Football · Argentina Nacional B · 30/08, 20:30
Prediction: Deportivo Moron vs CA San Miguel
Team pages: Deportivo Moron · CA San Miguel
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.26Total
Deportivo Moron1.49
CA San Miguel0.77
1X2
Deportivo Moron
Draw
CA San Miguel
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 61%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Deportivo Moron
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
CA San Miguel
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Deportivo Moron
1–2
CA San Miguel
(3 last)
- CA San Miguel2-1Deportivo Moron
- CA San Miguel0-1Deportivo Moron
- Deportivo Moron0-1CA San Miguel
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Deportivo Moron 1516 · CA San Miguel 1473
| Deportivo Moron | Draw | CA San Miguel | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 29% | 18% |
| Market | 52% | 31% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.26 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportivo Moron (rating 1516 vs 1473).
- H2H favours CA San Miguel: 2-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Deportivo Moron | CA San Miguel | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.1 | 0.8 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.2 | 0.2 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/50/0% | 22/44/33% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 3.3 | 2.8 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.1 / 0.7 | 4.6 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Moron 1–0–2 CA San Miguel
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 Argentina Nacional B | CA San Miguel | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Deportivo Moron |
| 19/10/24 Argentina Nacional B | CA San Miguel | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Deportivo Moron |
| 02/06/24 Argentina Nacional B | Deportivo Moron | 0-1 HT 0-1 | CA San Miguel |
Standings · Argentina Nacional B · Primera Nacional 2026, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 26 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 32 | 23 | 52 |
| 2 | Deportivo Moron | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 41 | 24 | 46 |
| 3 | Colon | 26 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 34 | 20 | 45 |
| 4 | Deportivo Madryn | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 38 | 24 | 43 |
| 5 | Almirante Brown | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 22 | 16 | 41 |
| 6 | Godoy Cruz | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 29 | 24 | 40 |
| 7 | CA Estudiantes Caseros | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 23 | 22 | 35 |
| 8 | Club Ciudad de Bolivar | 26 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 22 | 23 | 35 |
| 9 | Los Andes | 25 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 20 | 15 | 33 |
| 10 | Racing de Cordoba | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 24 | 29 | 32 |
| 11 | Club Atletico Mitre | 26 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 25 | 33 | 29 |
| 12 | CA San Miguel | 26 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 20 | 28 | 29 |
| 13 | CA Chaco For Ever | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 25 | 29 | 28 |
| 14 | Central Norte | 26 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 25 | 28 |
| 15 | CA San Telmo | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 22 | 30 | 27 |
| 16 | All Boys | 26 | 5 | 12 | 9 | 15 | 24 | 27 |
| 17 | Defensores de Belgrano | 25 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 16 | 23 | 26 |
| 18 | Acassuso | 26 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 19 | 32 | 22 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Deportivo Moron | CA San Miguel |
|---|---|---|
| Central Norte | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| CA San Telmo | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| Acassuso | 4-1 W | 0-0 D |
| CA Chaco For Ever | 0-2 L | 0-3 L |
| Ferro Carril Oeste | 4-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Deportivo Madryn | 2-2 D | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 1 L | 0 W 3 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Deportivo Moron (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Deportivo Moron
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08 | Central Norte Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 21/08 | CA San Telmo Argentina Nacional B |
2-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 7 | D |
| 15/08 | Almagro Argentina Nacional B |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 09/08 | Acassuso Argentina Nacional B |
3-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 02/08 | CA Chaco For Ever Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 26/07 | Ferro Carril Oeste Argentina Nacional B |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 11/07 | Deportivo Madryn Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 04/07 | Defensores de Belgrano Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 21/06 | Ferro Carril Oeste Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 13/06 | Club Ciudad de Bolivar Argentina Nacional B |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
CA San Miguel
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | CA Chaco For Ever Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | Colon Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 15/08 | CA Colegiales Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 09/08 | Racing de Cordoba Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 02/08 | CA San Telmo Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 26/07 | Acassuso Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 11/07 | Ferro Carril Oeste Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 05/07 | Central Norte Argentina Nacional B |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 20/06 | Acassuso Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 9 | W |
| 14/06 | Deportivo Madryn Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Deportivo Moron vs CA San Miguel?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Moron win (52%). Probabilities: Deportivo Moron 52%, draw 30%, CA San Miguel 18%.
How many goals are expected in Deportivo Moron vs CA San Miguel?
The model expects 2.26 goals (Deportivo Moron 1.49 · CA San Miguel 0.77), with a 56% chance of over 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Deportivo Moron vs CA San Miguel?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.