Football · Argentina Nacional B · 12/09, 22:00

Prediction: Almirante Brown vs Ferro Carril Oeste

Team pages: Almirante Brown · Ferro Carril Oeste

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.01Total

Almirante Brown0.96

Ferro Carril Oeste1.05

1X2

31% 34% 35%

Almirante Brown Draw Ferro Carril Oeste

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Almirante Brown 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

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Ferro Carril Oeste 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Almirante Brown 1–2–1 Ferro Carril Oeste (4 last)

Ferro Carril Oeste0-1Almirante Brown
Almirante Brown0-0Ferro Carril Oeste
Ferro Carril Oeste1-1Almirante Brown
Ferro Carril Oeste1-0Almirante Brown

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Almirante Brown 1571 · Ferro Carril Oeste 1527

	Almirante Brown	Draw	Ferro Carril Oeste
Our model	31%	33%	35%
Market	31%	34%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.01 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Almirante Brown (rating 1571 vs 1527).
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Almirante Brown	Ferro Carril Oeste
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.5	1.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.2	2.7 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	4.8 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

13.00

X2.70

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 1.752.00

Under 1.751.80

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
01:20 +2’	3.00	2.70	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Almirante Brown 1–2–1 Ferro Carril Oeste

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/04/26 Argentina Nacional B	Ferro Carril Oeste	0-1 HT 0-1	Almirante Brown
11/11/23 Argentina Nacional B	Almirante Brown	0-0 HT 0-0	Ferro Carril Oeste
05/11/23 Argentina Nacional B	Ferro Carril Oeste	1-1 HT 0-0	Almirante Brown
16/08/22 Argentina Nacional B	Ferro Carril Oeste	1-0 HT 1-0	Almirante Brown

Standings · Argentina Nacional B · Primera Nacional 2026, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	28	16	6	6	34	25	54
2	Deportivo Moron	28	15	7	6	45	26	52
3	Colon	28	12	9	7	35	23	45
4	Almirante Brown	27	12	8	7	23	16	44
5	Deportivo Madryn	27	11	10	6	38	25	43
6	Godoy Cruz	27	12	7	8	32	24	43
7	Club Ciudad de Bolivar	27	9	11	7	23	23	38
8	CA Estudiantes Caseros	27	9	9	9	25	24	36
9	Los Andes	27	8	11	8	20	15	35
10	Racing de Cordoba	28	9	8	11	25	32	35
11	Club Atletico Mitre	28	6	13	9	27	35	31
12	All Boys	28	6	13	9	16	24	31
13	CA Chaco For Ever	27	7	8	12	25	29	29
14	Defensores de Belgrano	27	6	11	10	19	24	29
15	Central Norte	27	6	11	10	19	27	29
16	CA San Miguel	27	6	11	10	21	30	29
17	CA San Telmo	28	6	10	12	22	33	28
18	Acassuso	28	5	8	15	19	33	23

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Almirante Brown	Ferro Carril Oeste
Club Atletico Mitre	0-0 D	0-0 D
CA Estudiantes Caseros	0-0 D	2-2 D
All Boys	1-1 D	1-0 W
Los Andes	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 0 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Ferro Carril Oeste (1 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Almirante Brown

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Deportivo Madryn Argentina Nacional B	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
22/08	Defensores de Belgrano Argentina Nacional B	1-0	2-0	2	2	W
16/08	Tristan Suarez Argentina Nacional B	0-2	1-3	5	4	L
08/08	Club Ciudad de Bolivar Argentina Nacional B	0-0	2-0	4	5	W
02/08	Racing de Cordoba Argentina Nacional B	1-0	2-0	4	2	W
26/07	Club Atletico Mitre Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
17/07	CA Estudiantes Caseros Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
11/07	All Boys Argentina Nacional B	1-0	1-1	2	2	D
04/07	Los Andes Argentina Nacional B	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
21/06	Club Atletico Mitre Argentina Nacional B	1-1	3-1	5	3	W

Ferro Carril Oeste

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Club Atletico Mitre Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
30/08	CA Estudiantes Caseros Argentina Nacional B	0-1	2-2	6	6	D
25/08	All Boys Argentina Nacional B	0-0	1-0	8	7	W
15/08	CA Atlanta Argentina Nacional B	1-0	3-1	4	0	W
09/08	Los Andes Argentina Nacional B	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
01/08	Godoy Cruz Argentina Nacional B	1-2	1-3	7	4	L
26/07	Deportivo Moron Argentina Nacional B	0-2	0-4	5	7	L
18/07	Colon Argentina Nacional B	1-0	2-0	3	9	W
11/07	CA San Miguel Argentina Nacional B	1-0	1-0	1	8	W
05/07	CA San Telmo Argentina Nacional B	2-0	2-1	5	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Almirante Brown vs Ferro Carril Oeste?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Ferro Carril Oeste win (35%). Probabilities: Almirante Brown 31%, draw 34%, Ferro Carril Oeste 35%.

How many goals are expected in Almirante Brown vs Ferro Carril Oeste?

The model expects 2.01 goals (Almirante Brown 0.96 · Ferro Carril Oeste 1.05), with a 50% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Almirante Brown vs Ferro Carril Oeste?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.