Football · Argentina Nacional B · 20/09, 22:00

Prediction: CA Guemes vs Ferrocarril Midland

Team pages: CA Guemes · Ferrocarril Midland

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.02Total

CA Guemes1.02

Ferrocarril Midland1

1X2

34% 33% 33%

CA Guemes Draw Ferrocarril Midland

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

CA Guemes 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLDDDDLL

Ferrocarril Midland 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWDWDLWLLW

Head-to-head

CA Guemes 0–1 Ferrocarril Midland (1 last)

Ferrocarril Midland2-1CA Guemes

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CA Guemes 1424 · Ferrocarril Midland 1524

	CA Guemes	Draw	Ferrocarril Midland
Our model	34%	33%	33%
Market	34%	33%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.02 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ferrocarril Midland (rating 1424 vs 1524).
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CA Guemes	Ferrocarril Midland
Goals for / against (FT)	0.4 / 1.6	1.2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.2	2.9 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.2	4.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.75

X2.80

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.88

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 22.05

Under 21.75

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 03:21

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.68 → 2.95▲	Pinn 2.95
X	2.92 → 2.93▲	Pinn 2.93
2	2.87 → 2.60▼	Pinn 2.60

See the full journey (3)

Pinnacle margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
23:50 +39’	2.68	2.92	2.87
00:55 +29’	2.83▲	2.92	2.71▼
02:40 +41’	2.95▲	2.93▲	2.60▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Guemes 0–0–1 Ferrocarril Midland

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Argentina Nacional B	Ferrocarril Midland	2-1 HT 1-0	CA Guemes

Standings · Argentina Nacional B · Primera Nacional 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Atletico Temperley	30	14	11	5	36	24	53
2	Gimnasia Jujuy	29	15	7	7	44	35	52
3	Tristan Suarez	28	13	11	4	28	14	50
4	CA Atlanta	29	15	3	11	34	28	48
5	Gimnasia y Tiro	29	12	9	8	31	26	45
6	Ferrocarril Midland	29	12	8	9	32	25	44
7	San Martin SJ	29	11	9	9	31	27	42
8	Atletico Rafaela	30	11	9	10	25	26	42
9	Deportivo Maipu	29	11	7	11	36	30	40
10	CA Colegiales	29	11	7	11	29	28	40
11	San Martin de Tucuman	30	9	12	9	32	30	39
12	Quilmes	29	9	8	12	28	24	35
13	Almagro	30	9	8	13	26	36	35
14	Agropecuario	29	8	9	12	25	34	33
15	Nueva Chicago	29	8	8	13	21	28	32
16	Patronato Parana	29	5	15	9	23	30	30
17	Chacarita Juniors	29	7	6	16	19	31	27
18	CA Guemes	28	5	8	15	22	46	23

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CA Guemes	Ferrocarril Midland
Chacarita Juniors	0-0 D	1-0 W
San Martin SJ	0-2 L	2-3 L
Nueva Chicago	0-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Ferrocarril Midland (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CA Guemes

LLLLDDDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	CA Atlanta Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
06/09	Gimnasia y Tiro Argentina Nacional B	0-2	1-3	7	1	L
30/08	San Martin de Tucuman Argentina Nacional B	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
24/08	Atletico Rafaela Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
19/08	Chacarita Juniors Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
15/08	Club Atletico Mitre Argentina Nacional B	1-1	1-1	1	5	D
08/08	Agropecuario Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-3	5	4	L
26/07	Gimnasia Jujuy Argentina Nacional B	1-0	1-2	3	2	L
12/07	San Martin SJ Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-2	5	4	L
04/07	Nueva Chicago Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-2	3	3	L

Ferrocarril Midland

WWDWDLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Chacarita Juniors Argentina Nacional B	1-0	1-0	6	5	W
06/09	San Martin SJ Argentina Nacional B	0-1	2-3	8	3	L
03/09	CA Colegiales Argentina Nacional B	0-2	0-3	6	5	L
29/08	Nueva Chicago Argentina Nacional B	1-0	2-0	3	7	W
23/08	Club Atletico Temperley Argentina Nacional B	1-0	1-2	4	5	L
14/08	Acassuso Argentina Nacional B	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
08/08	Deportivo Maipu Argentina Nacional B	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
01/08	Almagro Argentina Nacional B	0-0	1-1	5	9	D
26/07	Patronato Parana Argentina Nacional B	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
12/07	Quilmes Argentina Nacional B	0-0	1-0	3	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CA Guemes vs Ferrocarril Midland?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CA Guemes win (34%). Probabilities: CA Guemes 34%, draw 33%, Ferrocarril Midland 33%.

How many goals are expected in CA Guemes vs Ferrocarril Midland?

The model expects 2.02 goals (CA Guemes 1.02 · Ferrocarril Midland 1), with a 54% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in CA Guemes vs Ferrocarril Midland?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.