Football · Argentina Nacional B · 30/08, 23:30
Prediction: San Martin de Tucuman vs CA Guemes
Team pages: San Martin de Tucuman · CA Guemes
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.33Total
San Martin de Tucuman1.72
CA Guemes0.61
1X2
San Martin de Tucuman
Draw
CA Guemes
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 59%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
1-0 16%
Recent form · 10 last
San Martin de Tucuman
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
CA Guemes
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
San Martin de Tucuman
1–4–1
CA Guemes
(6 last)
- CA Guemes0-2San Martin de Tucuman
- CA Guemes2-1San Martin de Tucuman
- San Martin de Tucuman1-1CA Guemes
- San Martin de Tucuman2-2CA Guemes
- CA Guemes0-0San Martin de Tucuman
- San Martin de Tucuman1-1CA Guemes
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · San Martin de Tucuman 1520 · CA Guemes 1424
| San Martin de Tucuman | Draw | CA Guemes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 25% | 12% |
| Market | 63% | 26% | 11% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.33 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours San Martin de Tucuman (rating 1520 vs 1424).
- Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| San Martin de Tucuman | CA Guemes | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.1 | 0.5 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.4 | 0.4 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 22/44/33% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4 | 1.6 / 3.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.3 / 0.2 | 2.9 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · San Martin de Tucuman 1–4–1 CA Guemes
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/26 Argentina Nacional B | CA Guemes | 0-2 HT 0-1 | San Martin de Tucuman |
| 06/07/25 Argentina Nacional B | CA Guemes | 2-1 HT 0-0 | San Martin de Tucuman |
| 03/03/25 Argentina Nacional B | San Martin de Tucuman | 1-1 HT 0-1 | CA Guemes |
| 27/10/24 Argentina Nacional B | San Martin de Tucuman | 2-2 HT 2-0 | CA Guemes |
| 09/06/24 Argentina Nacional B | CA Guemes | 0-0 HT 0-0 | San Martin de Tucuman |
| 23/09/23 Argentina Nacional B | San Martin de Tucuman | 1-1 HT 0-0 | CA Guemes |
Standings · Argentina Nacional B · Primera Nacional 2026, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tristan Suarez | 24 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 25 | 12 | 45 |
| 2 | Gimnasia Jujuy | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 39 | 32 | 45 |
| 3 | Club Atletico Temperley | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 29 | 22 | 43 |
| 4 | CA Atlanta | 26 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 31 | 27 | 42 |
| 5 | Ferrocarril Midland | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 27 | 19 | 38 |
| 6 | Deportivo Maipu | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 34 | 27 | 38 |
| 7 | Gimnasia y Tiro | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 27 | 25 | 38 |
| 8 | Atletico Rafaela | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 18 | 19 | 36 |
| 9 | San Martin SJ | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 27 | 24 | 35 |
| 10 | San Martin de Tucuman | 26 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 26 | 23 | 35 |
| 11 | Quilmes | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 27 | 22 | 32 |
| 12 | CA Colegiales | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 25 | 31 |
| 13 | Almagro | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 21 | 29 | 31 |
| 14 | Nueva Chicago | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 20 | 25 | 29 |
| 15 | Agropecuario | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 22 | 30 | 29 |
| 16 | Patronato Parana | 26 | 5 | 13 | 8 | 23 | 29 | 28 |
| 17 | Chacarita Juniors | 26 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 19 | 28 | 27 |
| 18 | CA Guemes | 25 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 20 | 40 | 22 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | San Martin de Tucuman | CA Guemes |
|---|---|---|
| Chacarita Juniors | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| San Martin SJ | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| Nueva Chicago | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Club Atletico Temperley | 1-2 L | 1-4 L |
| Deportivo Maipu | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 2 L | 1 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: San Martin de Tucuman (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
San Martin de Tucuman
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Chacarita Juniors Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 16/08 | Deportivo Madryn Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 09/08 | San Martin SJ Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 01/08 | Nueva Chicago Argentina Nacional B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 9 | L |
| 26/07 | Club Atletico Temperley Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 8 | L |
| 17/07 | Deportivo Maipu Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 12/07 | Almagro Argentina Nacional B |
3-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 05/07 | Patronato Parana Argentina Nacional B |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 20/06 | Club Atletico Temperley Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 8 | D |
| 13/06 | CA Colegiales Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 9 | L |
CA Guemes
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08 | Atletico Rafaela Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 19/08 | Chacarita Juniors Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 15/08 | Club Atletico Mitre Argentina Nacional B |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 08/08 | Agropecuario Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 26/07 | Gimnasia Jujuy Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 12/07 | San Martin SJ Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 04/07 | Nueva Chicago Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 21/06 | Gimnasia Jujuy Argentina Nacional B |
1-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 14/06 | Club Atletico Temperley Argentina Nacional B |
1-2 | 1-4 | 0 | 6 | L |
| 07/06 | Deportivo Maipu Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in San Martin de Tucuman vs CA Guemes?
According to our model, the most likely result is a San Martin de Tucuman win (63%). Probabilities: San Martin de Tucuman 63%, draw 26%, CA Guemes 11%.
How many goals are expected in San Martin de Tucuman vs CA Guemes?
The model expects 2.33 goals (San Martin de Tucuman 1.72 · CA Guemes 0.61), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in San Martin de Tucuman vs CA Guemes?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.