Football · Argentina Nacional B · 12/09, 22:00

Prediction: Quilmes vs San Martin SJ

Team pages: Quilmes · San Martin SJ

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.99Total

Quilmes1.08

San Martin SJ0.91

1X2

38% 33% 29%

Quilmes Draw San Martin SJ

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Quilmes 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLDWDWLL

San Martin SJ 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WLWLDDDWWW

Head-to-head

Quilmes 2–4 San Martin SJ (6 last)

San Martin SJ1-0Quilmes
Quilmes0-1San Martin SJ
San Martin SJ0-3Quilmes
San Martin SJ2-1Quilmes
San Martin SJ1-0Quilmes
Quilmes2-0San Martin SJ

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Quilmes 1468 · San Martin SJ 1549

	Quilmes	Draw	San Martin SJ
Our model	38%	34%	29%
Market	38%	33%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 1.99 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours San Martin SJ (rating 1468 vs 1549).
H2H favours San Martin SJ: 4-0-2.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Quilmes	San Martin SJ
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.2	1.4 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.9	2 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0	4.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.40

X2.80

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.05

2 (+0.25)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.77

Under 1.752.02

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.6%

Time*	1	X	2
01:18 +4’	2.40	2.80	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Quilmes 2–0–4 San Martin SJ

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Argentina Nacional B	San Martin SJ	1-0 HT 1-0	Quilmes
06/08/24 Argentina Nacional B	Quilmes	0-1 HT 0-1	San Martin SJ
16/03/24 Argentina Nacional B	San Martin SJ	0-3 HT 0-1	Quilmes
04/06/22 Argentina Nacional B	San Martin SJ	2-1 HT 0-1	Quilmes
06/05/17 Argentina Superliga	San Martin SJ	1-0 HT 0-0	Quilmes
03/10/15 Argentina Liga Profesional	Quilmes	2-0 HT 1-0	San Martin SJ

Standings · Argentina Nacional B · Primera Nacional 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tristan Suarez	26	13	9	4	28	14	48
2	Club Atletico Temperley	27	12	10	5	30	22	46
3	Gimnasia Jujuy	27	13	7	7	40	33	46
4	CA Atlanta	28	14	3	11	32	28	45
5	Ferrocarril Midland	27	11	8	8	29	22	41
6	Gimnasia y Tiro	27	11	8	8	28	25	41
7	Atletico Rafaela	27	10	9	8	20	20	39
8	Deportivo Maipu	27	11	5	11	34	28	38
9	San Martin SJ	26	10	8	8	28	24	38
10	CA Colegiales	27	10	7	10	27	25	37
11	San Martin de Tucuman	28	8	12	8	27	26	36
12	Almagro	27	9	7	11	22	29	34
13	Quilmes	27	8	8	11	27	23	32
14	Agropecuario	27	7	9	11	23	31	30
15	Nueva Chicago	27	7	8	12	20	27	29
16	Patronato Parana	27	5	13	9	23	30	28
17	Chacarita Juniors	28	7	6	15	19	30	27
18	CA Guemes	26	5	8	13	21	41	23

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Quilmes	San Martin SJ
Ferrocarril Midland	0-1 L	3-2 W
CA Atlanta	2-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: San Martin SJ (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Quilmes

LWLLDWDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Club Atletico Temperley Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
23/08	Deportivo Maipu Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-1	3	7	L
16/08	CA San Telmo Argentina Nacional B	2-0	3-0	5	4	W
09/08	Almagro Argentina Nacional B	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
06/08	Gimnasia Jujuy Argentina Nacional B	0-0	2-0	7	4	W
01/08	Patronato Parana Argentina Nacional B	1-3	3-3	9	8	D
27/07	CA Colegiales Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
12/07	Ferrocarril Midland Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
04/07	CA Atlanta Argentina Nacional B	0-0	2-1	8	4	W
20/06	CA Colegiales Argentina Nacional B	0-1	1-3	8	0	L

San Martin SJ

WLWLDDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Ferrocarril Midland Argentina Nacional B	1-0	3-2	4	3	W
30/08	CA Atlanta Argentina Nacional B	0-0	1-0	1	5	W
22/08	Gimnasia y Tiro Argentina Nacional B	2-0	3-1	3	0	W
16/08	Racing de Cordoba Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
09/08	San Martin de Tucuman Argentina Nacional B	0-0	1-1	1	4	D
01/08	Atletico Rafaela Argentina Nacional B	0-0	1-1	6	2	D
26/07	Agropecuario Argentina Nacional B	1-0	1-2	8	7	L
12/07	CA Guemes Argentina Nacional B	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
05/07	Chacarita Juniors Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-1	8	9	L
20/06	Agropecuario Argentina Nacional B	1-0	2-0	10	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Quilmes vs San Martin SJ?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Quilmes win (38%). Probabilities: Quilmes 38%, draw 33%, San Martin SJ 29%.

How many goals are expected in Quilmes vs San Martin SJ?

The model expects 1.99 goals (Quilmes 1.08 · San Martin SJ 0.91), with a 53% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Quilmes vs San Martin SJ?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.