Football · Argentina Nacional B · 12/09, 22:00
Prediction: Almagro vs Deportivo Maipu
Team pages: Almagro · Deportivo Maipu
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.75Total
Almagro0.87
Deportivo Maipu0.87
1X2
Almagro
Draw
Deportivo Maipu
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 54%
Not both to score 54%
Most likely score
0-0 19%
Recent form · 10 last
Almagro
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Deportivo Maipu
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Almagro
1–3
Deportivo Maipu
(4 last)
- Deportivo Maipu1-0Almagro
- Almagro0-1Deportivo Maipu
- Deportivo Maipu3-1Almagro
- Almagro1-0Deportivo Maipu
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Almagro 1478 · Deportivo Maipu 1520
| Almagro | Draw | Deportivo Maipu | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 36% | 32% |
| Market | 34% | 33% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.75 goals · Bet365 line 1.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportivo Maipu (rating 1478 vs 1520).
- H2H favours Deportivo Maipu: 3-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Almagro | Deportivo Maipu | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.7 | 0.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3.3 | 2.1 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.1 | 4.9 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Almagro 1–0–3 Deportivo Maipu
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/26 Argentina Nacional B | Deportivo Maipu | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Almagro |
| 05/07/25 Argentina Nacional B | Almagro | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Deportivo Maipu |
| 02/03/25 Argentina Nacional B | Deportivo Maipu | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Almagro |
| 19/09/22 Argentina Nacional B | Almagro | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Deportivo Maipu |
Standings · Argentina Nacional B · Primera Nacional 2026, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tristan Suarez | 26 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 28 | 14 | 48 |
| 2 | Club Atletico Temperley | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 30 | 22 | 46 |
| 3 | Gimnasia Jujuy | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 40 | 33 | 46 |
| 4 | CA Atlanta | 28 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 32 | 28 | 45 |
| 5 | Ferrocarril Midland | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 29 | 22 | 41 |
| 6 | Gimnasia y Tiro | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 28 | 25 | 41 |
| 7 | Atletico Rafaela | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 20 | 20 | 39 |
| 8 | Deportivo Maipu | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 34 | 28 | 38 |
| 9 | San Martin SJ | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 28 | 24 | 38 |
| 10 | CA Colegiales | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 27 | 25 | 37 |
| 11 | San Martin de Tucuman | 28 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 27 | 26 | 36 |
| 12 | Almagro | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 22 | 29 | 34 |
| 13 | Quilmes | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 27 | 23 | 32 |
| 14 | Agropecuario | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 23 | 31 | 30 |
| 15 | Nueva Chicago | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 20 | 27 | 29 |
| 16 | Patronato Parana | 27 | 5 | 13 | 9 | 23 | 30 | 28 |
| 17 | Chacarita Juniors | 28 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 19 | 30 | 27 |
| 18 | CA Guemes | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 21 | 41 | 23 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Almagro | Deportivo Maipu |
|---|---|---|
| CA Colegiales | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Quilmes | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Gimnasia y Tiro | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Ferrocarril Midland | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| CA Atlanta | 3-1 W | 4-2 W |
| San Martin de Tucuman | 0-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Atletico Rafaela | 1-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 2 L | 3 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Deportivo Maipu (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Almagro
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Gimnasia Jujuy Argentina Nacional B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 30/08 | Patronato Parana Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 22/08 | CA Colegiales Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 15/08 | Deportivo Moron Argentina Nacional B |
0-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 09/08 | Quilmes Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 4 | D |
| 05/08 | Gimnasia y Tiro Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 01/08 | Ferrocarril Midland Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 9 | D |
| 28/07 | CA Atlanta Argentina Nacional B |
3-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 12/07 | San Martin de Tucuman Argentina Nacional B |
0-3 | 0-3 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 04/07 | Atletico Rafaela Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
Deportivo Maipu
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | CA Colegiales Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 23/08 | Quilmes Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 15/08 | Godoy Cruz Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 08/08 | Ferrocarril Midland Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 02/08 | CA Atlanta Argentina Nacional B |
2-2 | 4-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 26/07 | Gimnasia y Tiro Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 17/07 | San Martin de Tucuman Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 8 | D |
| 11/07 | Atletico Rafaela Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 05/07 | Agropecuario Argentina Nacional B |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 21/06 | Gimnasia y Tiro Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Almagro vs Deportivo Maipu?
According to our model, the most likely result is a draw (34%). Probabilities: Almagro 33%, draw 34%, Deportivo Maipu 33%.
How many goals are expected in Almagro vs Deportivo Maipu?
The model expects 1.75 goals (Almagro 0.87 · Deportivo Maipu 0.87), with a 51% chance of under 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Almagro vs Deportivo Maipu?
The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.