Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 31/10, 19:30
Prediction: Deportivo Merlo vs Arsenal de Sarandi
Team pages: Deportivo Merlo · Arsenal de Sarandi
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.18Total
Deportivo Merlo0.86
Arsenal de Sarandi1.32
1X2
Deportivo Merlo
Draw
Arsenal de Sarandi
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 63%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Deportivo Merlo
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Arsenal de Sarandi
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Deportivo Merlo
0–1
Arsenal de Sarandi
(1 last)
- Arsenal de Sarandi4-2Deportivo Merlo
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Deportivo Merlo 1458 · Arsenal de Sarandi 1566
| Deportivo Merlo | Draw | Arsenal de Sarandi | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 23% | 31% | 46% |
| Market | 24% | 28% | 47% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.18 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arsenal de Sarandi (rating 1458 vs 1566).
- Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Deportivo Merlo | Arsenal de Sarandi | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 0.9 | 1.6 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.3 | 0.6 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 2.8 | 3.7 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.2 | 4.8 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Merlo 0–0–1 Arsenal de Sarandi
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Arsenal de Sarandi | 4-2 HT 3-1 | Deportivo Merlo |
Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excursionistas | 41 | 24 | 9 | 8 | 68 | 31 | 81 |
| 2 | Arsenal de Sarandi | 41 | 21 | 13 | 7 | 55 | 27 | 76 |
| 3 | Talleres Remedios | 41 | 20 | 11 | 10 | 46 | 26 | 71 |
| 4 | Sportivo Italiano | 41 | 19 | 12 | 10 | 47 | 33 | 69 |
| 5 | Villa Dalmine | 41 | 18 | 14 | 9 | 40 | 27 | 68 |
| 6 | Atletico Camioneros | 41 | 18 | 13 | 10 | 48 | 34 | 67 |
| 7 | Real Pilar | 41 | 18 | 11 | 12 | 44 | 40 | 65 |
| 8 | Deportivo Armenio | 41 | 17 | 11 | 13 | 42 | 39 | 62 |
| 9 | Deportivo Laferrere | 41 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 50 | 52 | 58 |
| 10 | Club Comunicaciones | 41 | 14 | 15 | 12 | 39 | 35 | 57 |
| 11 | San Martin De Burzaco | 41 | 12 | 15 | 14 | 41 | 46 | 51 |
| 12 | Villa San Carlos | 41 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 40 | 45 | 50 |
| 13 | CSD Flandria | 41 | 13 | 9 | 19 | 39 | 49 | 48 |
| 14 | Deportivo Merlo | 41 | 11 | 15 | 15 | 39 | 54 | 48 |
| 15 | Argentino Merlo | 41 | 12 | 11 | 18 | 37 | 44 | 47 |
| 16 | Argentino Quilmes | 41 | 10 | 17 | 14 | 33 | 40 | 47 |
| 17 | CS Dock Sud | 41 | 11 | 14 | 16 | 41 | 49 | 47 |
| 18 | Defensores Unidos | 41 | 10 | 15 | 16 | 34 | 40 | 45 |
| 19 | Deportivo Liniers | 41 | 10 | 15 | 16 | 34 | 43 | 45 |
| 20 | CA Brown de Adrogue | 41 | 9 | 16 | 16 | 25 | 38 | 43 |
| 21 | UAI Urquiza | 41 | 7 | 21 | 13 | 25 | 36 | 42 |
| 22 | CA Ituzaingo | 41 | 1 | 14 | 26 | 28 | 67 | 17 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Deportivo Merlo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 18/10 | Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
2-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 10/10 | Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 06/10 | CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | D |
| 26/09 | Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-1 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 20/09 | CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 13/09 | Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 06/09 | Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 01/09 | Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 27/08 | CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
Arsenal de Sarandi
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 17/10 | Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 10/10 | San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 3-1 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 03/10 | Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 26/09 | Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 19/09 | Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 12/09 | UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 05/09 | Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 29/08 | Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 25/08 | CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Deportivo Merlo vs Arsenal de Sarandi?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Arsenal de Sarandi win (47%). Probabilities: Deportivo Merlo 24%, draw 29%, Arsenal de Sarandi 47%.
How many goals are expected in Deportivo Merlo vs Arsenal de Sarandi?
The model expects 2.18 goals (Deportivo Merlo 0.86 · Arsenal de Sarandi 1.32), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Deportivo Merlo vs Arsenal de Sarandi?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.