Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 24/10, 22:00

Prediction: Argentino Merlo vs Deportivo Merlo

Team pages: Argentino Merlo · Deportivo Merlo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.96Total

Argentino Merlo1.22

Deportivo Merlo0.74

1X2

48% 29% 23%

Argentino Merlo Draw Deportivo Merlo

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Argentino Merlo 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

DLDLLWLLLL

Deportivo Merlo 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DLLDLWLDDW

Head-to-head

Argentino Merlo 1–3–2 Deportivo Merlo (6 last)

Deportivo Merlo2-2Argentino Merlo
Deportivo Merlo2-2Argentino Merlo
Argentino Merlo0-1Deportivo Merlo
Argentino Merlo4-0Deportivo Merlo
Deportivo Merlo2-1Argentino Merlo
Deportivo Merlo1-1Argentino Merlo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Argentino Merlo 1431 · Deportivo Merlo 1478

	Argentino Merlo	Draw	Deportivo Merlo
Our model	46%	33%	21%
Market	50%	26%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 1.96 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportivo Merlo (rating 1431 vs 1478).
H2H favours Deportivo Merlo: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Argentino Merlo	Deportivo Merlo
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.4	0.6 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/70/30%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 4.1	1.5 / 2.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.2	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.50

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 21.85

Under 21.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 1.7

Market movement

Match winner · 7 moves · last 16:35

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.93 → 1.83▼	Pinn 1.83
X	2.88 → 3.18▲	Pinn 3.18
2	4.15 → 4.11▼	Pinn 4.11

See the full journey (7)

Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
20:15 +57’	1.93	2.88	4.15
22:48 +15’	2.28▲	2.63▼	3.50▼
01:02 +17’	1.94▼	2.84▲	4.18▲
06:19 +79’	1.93▼	2.86▲	4.18
08:01 +97’	1.95▲	2.82▼	4.19▲
11:04 +59’	1.85▼	3.10▲	4.13▼
16:03 +31’	1.83▼	3.18▲	4.11▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Argentino Merlo 1–3–2 Deportivo Merlo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/06/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Merlo	2-2 HT 0-2	Argentino Merlo
19/08/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Merlo	2-2 HT 1-1	Argentino Merlo
29/03/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Argentino Merlo	0-1 HT 0-0	Deportivo Merlo
14/07/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Argentino Merlo	4-0 HT 3-0	Deportivo Merlo
25/02/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Merlo	2-1 HT 0-1	Argentino Merlo
16/09/23 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Merlo	1-1 HT 1-1	Argentino Merlo

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	40	23	9	8	64	31	78
2	Arsenal de Sarandi	40	20	13	7	53	26	73
3	Sportivo Italiano	40	19	12	9	47	29	69
4	Talleres Remedios	40	19	11	10	42	26	68
5	Atletico Camioneros	40	18	13	9	47	32	67
6	Villa Dalmine	40	17	14	9	39	27	65
7	Deportivo Armenio	40	17	11	12	42	38	62
8	Real Pilar	40	17	11	12	42	39	62
9	Club Comunicaciones	40	14	15	11	39	34	57
10	Deportivo Laferrere	40	14	13	13	49	52	55
11	San Martin De Burzaco	40	12	15	13	41	45	51
12	Villa San Carlos	40	12	14	14	40	43	50
13	Deportivo Merlo	40	11	15	14	39	53	48
14	CS Dock Sud	40	11	14	15	41	45	47
15	Deportivo Liniers	40	10	15	15	33	41	45
16	CSD Flandria	40	12	9	19	36	48	45
17	Argentino Merlo	40	11	11	18	36	44	44
18	Argentino Quilmes	40	9	17	14	32	40	44
19	CA Brown de Adrogue	40	9	16	15	25	37	43
20	Defensores Unidos	40	9	15	16	33	40	42
21	UAI Urquiza	40	6	21	13	23	36	39
22	CA Ituzaingo	40	1	14	25	27	64	17

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Argentino Merlo

DLDLLWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	2-3	2	9	L
11/10	Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-2	7	1	L
03/10	San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-2	6	3	L
26/09	Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	10	3	L
20/09	Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	2-1	3	7	W
12/09	Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	3	0	L
06/09	UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	0-2	6	2	L
30/08	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
26/08	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	1	1	L
22/08	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	1	2	D

Deportivo Merlo

DLLDLWLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	2-1	1	6	W
10/10	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	4	1	D
06/10	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	0	3	D
26/09	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	0	3	L
20/09	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-1	2	6	W
13/09	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
06/09	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
01/09	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
27/08	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-2	5	4	L
22/08	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Argentino Merlo vs Deportivo Merlo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Argentino Merlo win (48%). Probabilities: Argentino Merlo 48%, draw 29%, Deportivo Merlo 23%.

How many goals are expected in Argentino Merlo vs Deportivo Merlo?

The model expects 1.96 goals (Argentino Merlo 1.22 · Deportivo Merlo 0.74), with a 52% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Argentino Merlo vs Deportivo Merlo?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.