Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: Deportivo Liniers vs UAI Urquiza

Team pages: Deportivo Liniers · UAI Urquiza

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.01Total

Deportivo Liniers1.1

UAI Urquiza0.91

1X2

39% 31% 29%

Deportivo Liniers Draw UAI Urquiza

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Liniers 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLWDDWLLWD

UAI Urquiza 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LDLLWLLDWW

Head-to-head

Deportivo Liniers 2–1–2 UAI Urquiza (5 last)

UAI Urquiza2-1Deportivo Liniers
UAI Urquiza0-1Deportivo Liniers
Deportivo Liniers0-1UAI Urquiza
Deportivo Liniers3-0UAI Urquiza
UAI Urquiza1-1Deportivo Liniers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Liniers 1497 · UAI Urquiza 1474

	Deportivo Liniers	Draw	UAI Urquiza
Our model	38%	33%	28%
Market	40%	30%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.01 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Liniers	UAI Urquiza
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.1	0.8 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4.2	3.3 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.4	3.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.00

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 22.00

Under 21.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 19:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.25▼	Pinn 2.38
X	2.90 → 3.00▲	Bet365 3.00
2	2.75 → 3.00▲	Pinn 3.33 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
20:54 +5’	2.45	2.90	2.75
19:17 +26’	2.25▼	3.00▲	3.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:13 +4’	2.30	2.74	3.27
17:48 +115’	2.38▲	2.60▼	3.33▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Liniers 2–1–2 UAI Urquiza

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/06/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	UAI Urquiza	2-1 HT 1-1	Deportivo Liniers
09/11/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	UAI Urquiza	0-1 HT 0-1	Deportivo Liniers
14/06/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Liniers	0-1 HT 0-0	UAI Urquiza
27/10/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Liniers	3-0 HT 2-0	UAI Urquiza
08/06/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	UAI Urquiza	1-1 HT 0-0	Deportivo Liniers

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	39	23	8	8	63	30	77
2	Arsenal de Sarandi	39	20	12	7	53	26	72
3	Sportivo Italiano	39	19	11	9	47	29	68
4	Talleres Remedios	39	19	11	9	41	24	68
5	Villa Dalmine	39	17	14	8	39	24	65
6	Atletico Camioneros	39	17	13	9	44	30	64
7	Deportivo Armenio	39	17	10	12	42	38	61
8	Real Pilar	39	17	10	12	42	39	61
9	Club Comunicaciones	39	14	14	11	39	34	56
10	Deportivo Laferrere	39	13	13	13	47	51	52
11	San Martin De Burzaco	39	12	14	13	40	44	50
12	CS Dock Sud	39	11	14	14	40	43	47
13	Villa San Carlos	39	11	14	14	37	43	47
14	Deportivo Merlo	39	10	15	14	37	52	45
15	Argentino Merlo	39	11	11	17	34	41	44
16	Argentino Quilmes	39	9	17	13	32	39	44
17	Deportivo Liniers	39	10	14	15	32	40	44
18	CA Brown de Adrogue	39	9	15	15	25	37	42
19	CSD Flandria	39	11	9	19	35	48	42
20	Defensores Unidos	39	9	14	16	33	40	41
21	UAI Urquiza	39	6	20	13	22	35	38
22	CA Ituzaingo	39	1	13	25	27	64	16

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Liniers	UAI Urquiza
Villa Dalmine	1-1 D	0-0 D
Excursionistas	1-0 W	1-2 L
Arsenal de Sarandi	0-2 L	0-2 L
Argentino Merlo	1-2 L	2-0 W
Talleres Remedios	2-0 W	0-1 L
Deportivo Laferrere	2-2 D	0-2 L
CA Brown de Adrogue	1-1 D	1-1 D
Deportivo Armenio	3-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo Liniers (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Liniers

LLWDDWLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
03/10	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
26/09	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	0-2	2	7	L
20/09	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-2	6	7	L
12/09	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	2-0	2	3	W
06/09	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	2-2	3	2	D
29/08	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
26/08	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	3-1	3	4	W
22/08	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	9	4	L
16/08	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	4	1	L

UAI Urquiza

LDLLWLLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/10	Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	4	0	W
05/10	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	3-2	7	4	W
27/09	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
19/09	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-2	4	8	L
12/09	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	7	6	L
06/09	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	2-0	1	2	W
29/08	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
25/08	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	11	5	L
22/08	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	2	3	D
16/08	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	6	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Liniers vs UAI Urquiza?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Liniers win (39%). Probabilities: Deportivo Liniers 39%, draw 31%, UAI Urquiza 29%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Liniers vs UAI Urquiza?

The model expects 2.01 goals (Deportivo Liniers 1.1 · UAI Urquiza 0.91), with a 53% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Liniers vs UAI Urquiza?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.