Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 17/10, 20:00

Prediction: San Martin De Burzaco vs Excursionistas

Team pages: San Martin De Burzaco · Excursionistas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.74Total

San Martin De Burzaco1.11

Excursionistas1.62

1X2

25% 28% 48%

San Martin De Burzaco Draw Excursionistas

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

San Martin De Burzaco 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLWLDWWLWL

Excursionistas 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLWWWWLW

Head-to-head

San Martin De Burzaco 0–1–5 Excursionistas (6 last)

Excursionistas2-0San Martin De Burzaco
Excursionistas4-2San Martin De Burzaco
San Martin De Burzaco0-1Excursionistas
Excursionistas4-2San Martin De Burzaco
San Martin De Burzaco1-1Excursionistas
Excursionistas1-0San Martin De Burzaco

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · San Martin De Burzaco 1490 · Excursionistas 1577

	San Martin De Burzaco	Draw	Excursionistas
Our model	25%	27%	48%
Market	24%	28%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.74 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Excursionistas (rating 1490 vs 1577).
H2H favours Excursionistas: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	San Martin De Burzaco	Excursionistas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.4	2.3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.1	2.6 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.3	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.70

X3.20

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.9%

Time*	1	X	2
21:07 +3’	3.70	3.20	1.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · San Martin De Burzaco 0–1–5 Excursionistas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/06/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Excursionistas	2-0 HT 1-0	San Martin De Burzaco
22/09/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Excursionistas	4-2 HT 2-0	San Martin De Burzaco
03/05/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	San Martin De Burzaco	0-1 HT 0-0	Excursionistas
17/08/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Excursionistas	4-2 HT 4-1	San Martin De Burzaco
30/03/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	San Martin De Burzaco	1-1 HT 1-1	Excursionistas
14/10/23 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Excursionistas	1-0 HT 0-0	San Martin De Burzaco

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	39	23	8	8	63	30	77
2	Arsenal de Sarandi	39	20	12	7	53	26	72
3	Sportivo Italiano	39	19	11	9	47	29	68
4	Talleres Remedios	39	19	11	9	41	24	68
5	Villa Dalmine	39	17	14	8	39	24	65
6	Atletico Camioneros	39	17	13	9	44	30	64
7	Deportivo Armenio	39	17	10	12	42	38	61
8	Real Pilar	39	17	10	12	42	39	61
9	Club Comunicaciones	39	14	14	11	39	34	56
10	Deportivo Laferrere	39	13	13	13	47	51	52
11	San Martin De Burzaco	39	12	14	13	40	44	50
12	CS Dock Sud	39	11	14	14	40	43	47
13	Villa San Carlos	39	11	14	14	37	43	47
14	Deportivo Merlo	39	10	15	14	37	52	45
15	Argentino Merlo	39	11	11	17	34	41	44
16	Argentino Quilmes	39	9	17	13	32	39	44
17	Deportivo Liniers	39	10	14	15	32	40	44
18	CA Brown de Adrogue	39	9	15	15	25	37	42
19	CSD Flandria	39	11	9	19	35	48	42
20	Defensores Unidos	39	9	14	16	33	40	41
21	UAI Urquiza	39	6	20	13	22	35	38
22	CA Ituzaingo	39	1	13	25	27	64	16

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	San Martin De Burzaco	Excursionistas
Arsenal de Sarandi	1-3 L	0-3 L
Argentino Merlo	2-1 W	2-0 W
Talleres Remedios	2-3 L	2-1 W
Deportivo Laferrere	2-1 W	5-3 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Excursionistas (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

San Martin De Burzaco

DLWLDWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-3	3	5	L
03/10	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-1	9	3	W
26/09	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	2-3	–	–	L
19/09	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	2-1	1	5	W
12/09	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
05/09	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
30/08	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	0-2	1	4	L
25/08	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	3-2	7	7	W
22/08	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	0-2	6	8	L
15/08	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	4	D

Excursionistas

WWWLWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	3-0	4-0	6	3	W
03/10	Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	9	4	L
26/09	Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	3-0	3	4	W
19/09	UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	2-1	4	8	W
13/09	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
08/09	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	2-1	11	2	W
29/08	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	0-3	6	8	L
26/08	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	4	1	W
22/08	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	2-1	4	4	W
15/08	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	5-3	2	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in San Martin De Burzaco vs Excursionistas?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Excursionistas win (48%). Probabilities: San Martin De Burzaco 25%, draw 28%, Excursionistas 48%.

How many goals are expected in San Martin De Burzaco vs Excursionistas?

The model expects 2.74 goals (San Martin De Burzaco 1.11 · Excursionistas 1.62), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in San Martin De Burzaco vs Excursionistas?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.