Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 10/10, 20:00

Prediction: CA Ituzaingo vs Argentino Quilmes

Team pages: CA Ituzaingo · Argentino Quilmes

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.96Total

CA Ituzaingo0.68

Argentino Quilmes1.28

1X2

19% 31% 50%

CA Ituzaingo Draw Argentino Quilmes

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 59% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-1 17%

Recent form · 10 last

CA Ituzaingo 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

LDDLLLDLLL

Argentino Quilmes 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DWLLLLWDDD

Head-to-head

CA Ituzaingo 4–2 Argentino Quilmes (6 last)

Argentino Quilmes2-0CA Ituzaingo
Argentino Quilmes1-0CA Ituzaingo
CA Ituzaingo2-0Argentino Quilmes
Argentino Quilmes1-2CA Ituzaingo
CA Ituzaingo2-1Argentino Quilmes
CA Ituzaingo1-0Argentino Quilmes

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CA Ituzaingo 1405 · Argentino Quilmes 1485

	CA Ituzaingo	Draw	Argentino Quilmes
Our model	19%	32%	50%
Market	20%	30%	51%

Estimated total (ours) 1.96 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Argentino Quilmes (rating 1405 vs 1485).
H2H favours CA Ituzaingo: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CA Ituzaingo	Argentino Quilmes
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.7	0.5 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.2 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	10/90/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 3.8	1.9 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.50

X3.00

21.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.95

2 (-0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 21.90

Under 21.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 1.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 01:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.90 → 4.50▲	Bet365 4.50
X	2.90 → 3.00▲	Pinn 3.06
2	1.91 → 1.75▼	Pinn 1.82 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.7% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
21:54 +12’	3.90	2.90	1.91
01:36 +19’	4.50▲	3.00▲	1.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:21 +8’	4.45	3.08	1.79
07:18 +41’	4.37▼	3.06▼	1.82▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Ituzaingo 4–0–2 Argentino Quilmes

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/06/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Argentino Quilmes	2-0 HT 0-0	CA Ituzaingo
25/07/23 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Argentino Quilmes	1-0 HT 1-0	CA Ituzaingo
28/03/23 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	CA Ituzaingo	2-0 HT 0-0	Argentino Quilmes
15/08/22 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Argentino Quilmes	1-2 HT 0-1	CA Ituzaingo
17/04/22 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	CA Ituzaingo	2-1 HT 1-0	Argentino Quilmes
03/02/19 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	CA Ituzaingo	1-0 HT 0-0	Argentino Quilmes

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	38	22	8	8	59	30	74
2	Arsenal de Sarandi	38	19	12	7	50	25	69
3	Talleres Remedios	38	19	10	9	40	23	67
4	Sportivo Italiano	38	18	11	9	45	28	65
5	Villa Dalmine	38	17	13	8	38	23	64
6	Atletico Camioneros	38	17	12	9	43	29	63
7	Real Pilar	38	17	10	11	42	38	61
8	Deportivo Armenio	38	17	9	12	42	38	60
9	Club Comunicaciones	38	14	13	11	39	34	55
10	Deportivo Laferrere	38	13	12	13	46	50	51
11	San Martin De Burzaco	38	12	14	12	39	41	50
12	CS Dock Sud	38	11	14	13	40	42	47
13	Villa San Carlos	38	11	14	13	37	39	47
14	Argentino Merlo	38	11	11	16	33	39	44
15	Deportivo Merlo	38	10	14	14	36	51	44
16	Argentino Quilmes	38	9	16	13	30	37	43
17	Deportivo Liniers	38	10	13	15	31	39	43
18	Defensores Unidos	38	9	14	15	33	39	41
19	CA Brown de Adrogue	38	8	15	15	24	37	39
20	CSD Flandria	38	10	9	19	34	48	39
21	UAI Urquiza	38	5	20	13	21	35	35
22	CA Ituzaingo	38	1	12	25	25	62	15

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CA Ituzaingo	Argentino Quilmes
Defensores Unidos	0-1 L	1-1 D
Club Comunicaciones	2-2 D	0-0 D
CS Dock Sud	0-2 L	0-0 D
Deportivo Merlo	0-0 D	1-0 W
Atletico Camioneros	0-1 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 3 L	1 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Argentino Quilmes (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CA Ituzaingo

LDDLLLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/10	UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	2-3	1	4	L
26/09	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	8	2	L
19/09	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-3	1-3	3	3	L
12/09	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	2-2	4	4	D
08/09	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-2	7	2	L
29/08	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	7	4	L
25/08	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	0	4	L
22/08	Deportivo Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
15/08	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	1	3	D
08/08	Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	5	5	L

Argentino Quilmes

DWLLLLWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
27/09	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
20/09	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
13/09	Deportivo Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
06/09	Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
29/08	Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	6	6	L
25/08	San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	2-3	7	7	L
23/08	Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	2	7	L
16/08	Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
08/08	Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	0	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CA Ituzaingo vs Argentino Quilmes?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Argentino Quilmes win (50%). Probabilities: CA Ituzaingo 19%, draw 31%, Argentino Quilmes 50%.

How many goals are expected in CA Ituzaingo vs Argentino Quilmes?

The model expects 1.96 goals (CA Ituzaingo 0.68 · Argentino Quilmes 1.28), with a 53% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in CA Ituzaingo vs Argentino Quilmes?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.