Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 10/10, 01:00
Prediction: Excursionistas vs Villa San Carlos
Team pages: Excursionistas · Villa San Carlos
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.29Total
Excursionistas1.59
Villa San Carlos0.7
1X2
Excursionistas
Draw
Villa San Carlos
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 60%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-0 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Excursionistas
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Villa San Carlos
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Excursionistas
3–2–1
Villa San Carlos
(6 last)
- Villa San Carlos0-2Excursionistas
- Excursionistas0-0Villa San Carlos
- Villa San Carlos2-1Excursionistas
- Villa San Carlos2-2Excursionistas
- Excursionistas1-0Villa San Carlos
- Excursionistas1-0Villa San Carlos
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Excursionistas 1560 · Villa San Carlos 1548
| Excursionistas | Draw | Villa San Carlos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 27% | 15% |
| Market | 59% | 25% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.29 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Excursionistas: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Excursionistas | Villa San Carlos | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.1 | 1 / 0.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.5 | 0.2 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 10/70/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.3 | 2.6 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.2 | 4.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Excursionistas 3–2–1 Villa San Carlos
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Villa San Carlos | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Excursionistas |
| 23/08/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Excursionistas | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Villa San Carlos |
| 05/04/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Villa San Carlos | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Excursionistas |
| 14/07/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Villa San Carlos | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Excursionistas |
| 24/02/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Excursionistas | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Villa San Carlos |
| 30/06/19 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | Excursionistas | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Villa San Carlos |
Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excursionistas | 39 | 23 | 8 | 8 | 63 | 30 | 77 |
| 2 | Arsenal de Sarandi | 39 | 20 | 12 | 7 | 53 | 26 | 72 |
| 3 | Talleres Remedios | 39 | 19 | 11 | 9 | 41 | 24 | 68 |
| 4 | Sportivo Italiano | 38 | 18 | 11 | 9 | 45 | 28 | 65 |
| 5 | Villa Dalmine | 39 | 17 | 14 | 8 | 39 | 24 | 65 |
| 6 | Atletico Camioneros | 39 | 17 | 13 | 9 | 44 | 30 | 64 |
| 7 | Real Pilar | 38 | 17 | 10 | 11 | 42 | 38 | 61 |
| 8 | Deportivo Armenio | 38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | 42 | 38 | 60 |
| 9 | Club Comunicaciones | 38 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 39 | 34 | 55 |
| 10 | Deportivo Laferrere | 39 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 47 | 51 | 52 |
| 11 | San Martin De Burzaco | 39 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 40 | 44 | 50 |
| 12 | CS Dock Sud | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 40 | 42 | 47 |
| 13 | Villa San Carlos | 39 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 37 | 43 | 47 |
| 14 | Deportivo Merlo | 39 | 10 | 15 | 14 | 37 | 52 | 45 |
| 15 | Argentino Merlo | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 33 | 39 | 44 |
| 16 | Argentino Quilmes | 39 | 9 | 17 | 13 | 32 | 39 | 44 |
| 17 | Deportivo Liniers | 39 | 10 | 14 | 15 | 32 | 40 | 44 |
| 18 | CSD Flandria | 39 | 11 | 9 | 19 | 35 | 48 | 42 |
| 19 | Defensores Unidos | 39 | 9 | 14 | 16 | 33 | 40 | 41 |
| 20 | CA Brown de Adrogue | 38 | 8 | 15 | 15 | 24 | 37 | 39 |
| 21 | UAI Urquiza | 38 | 5 | 20 | 13 | 21 | 35 | 35 |
| 22 | CA Ituzaingo | 39 | 1 | 13 | 25 | 27 | 64 | 16 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Excursionistas | Villa San Carlos |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal de Sarandi | 0-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Argentino Merlo | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Talleres Remedios | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Deportivo Laferrere | 5-3 W | 1-1 D |
| CA Brown de Adrogue | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 2 L | 2 W 3 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Excursionistas (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Excursionistas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 26/09 | Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 19/09 | UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 13/09 | Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 08/09 | CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 2 | W |
| 29/08 | Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 26/08 | Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 22/08 | Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 15/08 | Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
2-0 | 5-3 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 08/08 | CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | L |
Villa San Carlos
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 26/09 | Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 20/09 | Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 12/09 | Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 06/09 | CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 30/08 | Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 25/08 | CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-1 | 3-2 | 12 | 6 | W |
| 23/08 | Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 16/08 | Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 10 | W |
| 08/08 | Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Excursionistas vs Villa San Carlos?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Excursionistas win (58%). Probabilities: Excursionistas 58%, draw 26%, Villa San Carlos 16%.
How many goals are expected in Excursionistas vs Villa San Carlos?
The model expects 2.29 goals (Excursionistas 1.59 · Villa San Carlos 0.7), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Excursionistas vs Villa San Carlos?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.