Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 03/10, 22:00

Prediction: Deportivo Liniers vs Excursionistas

Team pages: Deportivo Liniers · Excursionistas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.68Total

Deportivo Liniers1

Excursionistas1.69

1X2

20% 28% 52%

Deportivo Liniers Draw Excursionistas

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Liniers 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWLLWDDWLL

Excursionistas 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWWLWWWW

Head-to-head

Deportivo Liniers 1–1–4 Excursionistas (6 last)

Excursionistas4-1Deportivo Liniers
Deportivo Liniers1-0Excursionistas
Excursionistas1-0Deportivo Liniers
Excursionistas0-0Deportivo Liniers
Deportivo Liniers0-1Excursionistas
Excursionistas3-0Deportivo Liniers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Liniers 1485 · Excursionistas 1572

	Deportivo Liniers	Draw	Excursionistas
Our model	21%	26%	52%
Market	20%	29%	51%

Estimated total (ours) 2.68 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Excursionistas (rating 1485 vs 1572).
H2H favours Excursionistas: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Liniers	Excursionistas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.2	2.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4	2.7 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.4	3.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

14.50

X3.10

21.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)2.00

2 (-0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 21.85

Under 21.95

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
19:24 +7’	4.50	3.10	1.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Liniers 1–1–4 Excursionistas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Excursionistas	4-1 HT 1-0	Deportivo Liniers
12/10/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Liniers	1-0 HT 0-0	Excursionistas
12/06/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Excursionistas	1-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Liniers
29/06/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Excursionistas	0-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Liniers
13/02/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Liniers	0-1 HT 0-1	Excursionistas
06/06/23 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Excursionistas	3-0 HT 1-0	Deportivo Liniers

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	37	22	8	7	59	29	74
2	Arsenal de Sarandi	37	19	12	6	50	24	69
3	Talleres Remedios	37	19	10	8	40	21	67
4	Villa Dalmine	37	17	13	7	38	21	64
5	Atletico Camioneros	37	17	12	8	42	27	63
6	Sportivo Italiano	37	17	11	9	43	28	62
7	Real Pilar	37	16	10	11	40	38	58
8	Deportivo Armenio	37	16	9	12	39	38	57
9	Club Comunicaciones	37	14	12	11	38	33	54
10	Deportivo Laferrere	37	12	12	13	44	49	48
11	San Martin De Burzaco	37	11	14	12	37	40	47
12	CS Dock Sud	36	10	14	12	38	38	44
13	Villa San Carlos	37	10	14	13	36	39	44
14	Argentino Merlo	37	11	11	15	32	37	44
15	Deportivo Merlo	37	10	13	14	36	51	43
16	Argentino Quilmes	37	9	15	13	29	36	42
17	Defensores Unidos	37	9	13	15	32	38	40
18	Deportivo Liniers	37	9	13	15	30	39	40
19	CSD Flandria	36	10	8	18	32	45	38
20	CA Brown de Adrogue	37	8	14	15	24	37	38
21	UAI Urquiza	37	4	20	13	18	33	32
22	CA Ituzaingo	37	1	12	24	23	59	15

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Liniers	Excursionistas
Arsenal de Sarandi	0-2 L	0-3 L
Argentino Merlo	1-2 L	2-0 W
Talleres Remedios	2-0 W	2-1 W
Deportivo Laferrere	2-2 D	5-3 W
CA Brown de Adrogue	1-1 D	0-1 L
Deportivo Armenio	3-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo Liniers (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Liniers

DWLLWDDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	0-2	2	7	L
20/09	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-2	6	7	L
12/09	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	2-0	2	3	W
06/09	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	2-2	3	2	D
29/08	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
26/08	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	3-1	3	4	W
22/08	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	9	4	L
16/08	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	4	1	L
08/08	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	3-2	1	7	W
01/08	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	6	1	D

Excursionistas

WLWWWLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	3-0	3	4	W
19/09	UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	2-1	4	8	W
13/09	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
08/09	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	2-1	11	2	W
29/08	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	0-3	6	8	L
26/08	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	4	1	W
22/08	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	2-1	4	4	W
15/08	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	5-3	2	7	W
08/08	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	3	0	L
01/08	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	2-1	7	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Liniers vs Excursionistas?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Excursionistas win (52%). Probabilities: Deportivo Liniers 20%, draw 28%, Excursionistas 52%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Liniers vs Excursionistas?

The model expects 2.68 goals (Deportivo Liniers 1 · Excursionistas 1.69), with a 59% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Liniers vs Excursionistas?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.