Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 03/10, 22:00

Prediction: San Martin De Burzaco vs Argentino Merlo

Team pages: San Martin De Burzaco · Argentino Merlo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.16Total

San Martin De Burzaco1.48

Argentino Merlo0.68

1X2

56% 28% 16%

San Martin De Burzaco Draw Argentino Merlo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

San Martin De Burzaco 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLDLWLDWWL

Argentino Merlo 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LWDDLDLLWL

Head-to-head

San Martin De Burzaco 2–1–3 Argentino Merlo (6 last)

Argentino Merlo0-1San Martin De Burzaco
San Martin De Burzaco3-0Argentino Merlo
Argentino Merlo2-0San Martin De Burzaco
Argentino Merlo3-1San Martin De Burzaco
San Martin De Burzaco0-0Argentino Merlo
San Martin De Burzaco0-1Argentino Merlo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · San Martin De Burzaco 1498 · Argentino Merlo 1451

	San Martin De Burzaco	Draw	Argentino Merlo
Our model	55%	29%	16%
Market	56%	28%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.16 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours San Martin De Burzaco (rating 1498 vs 1451).
H2H favours Argentino Merlo: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	San Martin De Burzaco	Argentino Merlo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.5	0.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4	1.2 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.2	3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.25

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.88

Under 21.93

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:16 +2’	1.61	3.25	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · San Martin De Burzaco 2–1–3 Argentino Merlo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Argentino Merlo	0-1 HT 0-1	San Martin De Burzaco
30/08/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	San Martin De Burzaco	3-0 HT 0-0	Argentino Merlo
13/04/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Argentino Merlo	2-0 HT 0-0	San Martin De Burzaco
22/06/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Argentino Merlo	3-1 HT 2-0	San Martin De Burzaco
03/02/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	San Martin De Burzaco	0-0 HT 0-0	Argentino Merlo
17/07/22 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	San Martin De Burzaco	0-1 HT 0-0	Argentino Merlo

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	37	22	8	7	59	29	74
2	Arsenal de Sarandi	37	19	12	6	50	24	69
3	Talleres Remedios	37	19	10	8	40	21	67
4	Villa Dalmine	37	17	13	7	38	21	64
5	Atletico Camioneros	37	17	12	8	42	27	63
6	Sportivo Italiano	37	17	11	9	43	28	62
7	Real Pilar	37	16	10	11	40	38	58
8	Deportivo Armenio	37	16	9	12	39	38	57
9	Club Comunicaciones	37	14	12	11	38	33	54
10	Deportivo Laferrere	37	12	12	13	44	49	48
11	San Martin De Burzaco	37	11	14	12	37	40	47
12	CS Dock Sud	36	10	14	12	38	38	44
13	Villa San Carlos	37	10	14	13	36	39	44
14	Argentino Merlo	37	11	11	15	32	37	44
15	Deportivo Merlo	37	10	13	14	36	51	43
16	Argentino Quilmes	37	9	15	13	29	36	42
17	Defensores Unidos	37	9	13	15	32	38	40
18	Deportivo Liniers	37	9	13	15	30	39	40
19	CSD Flandria	36	10	8	18	32	45	38
20	CA Brown de Adrogue	37	8	14	15	24	37	38
21	UAI Urquiza	37	4	20	13	18	33	32
22	CA Ituzaingo	37	1	12	24	23	59	15

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	San Martin De Burzaco	Argentino Merlo
Talleres Remedios	2-3 L	2-1 W
Deportivo Laferrere	2-1 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

San Martin De Burzaco

DLDLWLDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	2-3	–	–	L
19/09	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	2-1	1	5	W
12/09	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
05/09	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
30/08	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	0-2	1	4	L
25/08	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	3-2	7	7	W
22/08	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	0-2	6	8	L
15/08	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
09/08	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-4	5	3	L
02/08	Deportivo Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	6	7	D

Argentino Merlo

LWDDLDLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	10	3	L
20/09	Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	2-1	3	7	W
12/09	Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	3	0	L
06/09	UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	0-2	6	2	L
30/08	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
26/08	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	1	1	L
22/08	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
15/08	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	6	4	D
08/08	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-1	2	7	W
01/08	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-2	1-3	6	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in San Martin De Burzaco vs Argentino Merlo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a San Martin De Burzaco win (56%). Probabilities: San Martin De Burzaco 56%, draw 28%, Argentino Merlo 16%.

How many goals are expected in San Martin De Burzaco vs Argentino Merlo?

The model expects 2.16 goals (San Martin De Burzaco 1.48 · Argentino Merlo 0.68), with a 51% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in San Martin De Burzaco vs Argentino Merlo?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.