Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 03/10, 22:00

Prediction: Defensores Unidos vs Argentino Quilmes

Team pages: Defensores Unidos · Argentino Quilmes

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.62Total

Defensores Unidos0.91

Argentino Quilmes0.7

1X2

38% 36% 26%

Defensores Unidos Draw Argentino Quilmes

Markets

Under 1.5 goals 51% Not both to score 56%

Most likely score

0-0 21%

Recent form · 10 last

Defensores Unidos 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLLWWDDWLW

Argentino Quilmes 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DDWLLLLWDD

Head-to-head

Defensores Unidos 3–1–2 Argentino Quilmes (6 last)

Argentino Quilmes1-0Defensores Unidos
Defensores Unidos4-1Argentino Quilmes
Argentino Quilmes4-0Defensores Unidos
Defensores Unidos1-1Argentino Quilmes
Argentino Quilmes0-1Defensores Unidos
Defensores Unidos2-0Argentino Quilmes

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Defensores Unidos 1509 · Argentino Quilmes 1484

	Defensores Unidos	Draw	Argentino Quilmes
Our model	37%	37%	25%
Market	39%	34%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 1.62 goals · Bet365 line 1.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 80%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Defensores Unidos: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Defensores Unidos	Argentino Quilmes
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.8	0.4 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.2	0.2 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	10/90/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.8	1.8 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.2	4.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.30

X2.63

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 1.752.00

Under 1.751.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 1.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
19:22 +7’	2.30	2.63	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Defensores Unidos 3–1–2 Argentino Quilmes

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Argentino Quilmes	1-0 HT 0-0	Defensores Unidos
02/10/22 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Defensores Unidos	4-1 HT 2-1	Argentino Quilmes
04/06/22 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Argentino Quilmes	4-0 HT 1-0	Defensores Unidos
07/08/21 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Defensores Unidos	1-1 HT 0-1	Argentino Quilmes
28/03/21 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Argentino Quilmes	0-1 HT 0-0	Defensores Unidos
15/10/19 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Defensores Unidos	2-0 HT 0-0	Argentino Quilmes

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	37	22	8	7	59	29	74
2	Arsenal de Sarandi	37	19	12	6	50	24	69
3	Talleres Remedios	37	19	10	8	40	21	67
4	Villa Dalmine	37	17	13	7	38	21	64
5	Atletico Camioneros	37	17	12	8	42	27	63
6	Sportivo Italiano	37	17	11	9	43	28	62
7	Real Pilar	37	16	10	11	40	38	58
8	Deportivo Armenio	37	16	9	12	39	38	57
9	Club Comunicaciones	37	14	12	11	38	33	54
10	Deportivo Laferrere	37	12	12	13	44	49	48
11	San Martin De Burzaco	37	11	14	12	37	40	47
12	CS Dock Sud	36	10	14	12	38	38	44
13	Villa San Carlos	37	10	14	13	36	39	44
14	Argentino Merlo	37	11	11	15	32	37	44
15	Deportivo Merlo	37	10	13	14	36	51	43
16	Argentino Quilmes	37	9	15	13	29	36	42
17	Defensores Unidos	37	9	13	15	32	38	40
18	Deportivo Liniers	37	9	13	15	30	39	40
19	CSD Flandria	36	10	8	18	32	45	38
20	CA Brown de Adrogue	37	8	14	15	24	37	38
21	UAI Urquiza	37	4	20	13	18	33	32
22	CA Ituzaingo	37	1	12	24	23	59	15

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Defensores Unidos	Argentino Quilmes
Club Comunicaciones	0-2 L	0-0 D
CS Dock Sud	3-0 W	0-0 D
Deportivo Merlo	0-0 D	1-0 W
Atletico Camioneros	0-0 D	0-1 L
Sportivo Italiano	2-0 W	0-2 L
San Martin De Burzaco	2-0 W	2-3 L
Villa San Carlos	0-1 L	0-2 L
Deportivo Liniers	2-3 L	1-0 W
Real Pilar	1-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 4 L	2 W 3 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Defensores Unidos (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Defensores Unidos

LLLWWDDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
18/09	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	3	9	L
12/09	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	3-0	7	3	W
06/09	Deportivo Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
29/08	Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
25/08	Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	6	5	W
22/08	San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	2-0	6	8	W
16/08	Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	3	10	L
08/08	Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-3	6	7	L
01/08	Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-2	3	3	L

Argentino Quilmes

DDWLLLLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
20/09	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
13/09	Deportivo Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
06/09	Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
29/08	Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	6	6	L
25/08	San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	2-3	7	7	L
23/08	Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	2	7	L
16/08	Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
08/08	Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	0	3	D
01/08	UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	5	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Defensores Unidos vs Argentino Quilmes?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Defensores Unidos win (38%). Probabilities: Defensores Unidos 38%, draw 36%, Argentino Quilmes 26%.

How many goals are expected in Defensores Unidos vs Argentino Quilmes?

The model expects 1.62 goals (Defensores Unidos 0.91 · Argentino Quilmes 0.7), with a 56% chance of under 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Defensores Unidos vs Argentino Quilmes?

The model gives a 56% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.