Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 29/08, 20:00

Prediction: CA Ituzaingo vs CS Dock Sud

Team pages: CA Ituzaingo · CS Dock Sud

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.07Total

CA Ituzaingo0.81

CS Dock Sud1.27

1X2

23% 31% 46%

CA Ituzaingo Draw CS Dock Sud

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

CA Ituzaingo 0-5-5 (W-D-L)

LDLLDDLDDL

CS Dock Sud 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DWLDWDDWLD

Head-to-head

CA Ituzaingo 5–1 CS Dock Sud (6 last)

CS Dock Sud3-0CA Ituzaingo
CA Ituzaingo1-0CS Dock Sud
CS Dock Sud0-2CA Ituzaingo
CS Dock Sud1-4CA Ituzaingo
CA Ituzaingo1-0CS Dock Sud
CA Ituzaingo1-0CS Dock Sud

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CA Ituzaingo 1433 · CS Dock Sud 1539

	CA Ituzaingo	Draw	CS Dock Sud
Our model	22%	32%	46%
Market	23%	30%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.07 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CS Dock Sud (rating 1433 vs 1539).
H2H favours CA Ituzaingo: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CA Ituzaingo	CS Dock Sud
Goals for / against (FT)	0.3 / 1.1	1.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/70/30%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 2.5	2.2 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.3	4.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.80

X3.00

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 1.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
04:11 +3’	3.80	3.00	1.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Ituzaingo 5–0–1 CS Dock Sud

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	CS Dock Sud	3-0 HT 0-0	CA Ituzaingo
02/10/23 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	CA Ituzaingo	1-0 HT 0-0	CS Dock Sud
28/05/23 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	CS Dock Sud	0-2 HT 0-2	CA Ituzaingo
17/06/22 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	CS Dock Sud	1-4 HT 0-1	CA Ituzaingo
19/02/22 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	CA Ituzaingo	1-0 HT 1-0	CS Dock Sud
12/11/21 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	CA Ituzaingo	1-0 HT 0-0	CS Dock Sud

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	32	18	8	6	49	24	62
2	Atletico Camioneros	32	16	11	5	39	20	59
3	Villa Dalmine	32	16	11	5	35	16	59
4	Arsenal de Sarandi	32	15	12	5	41	22	57
5	Talleres Remedios	32	16	9	7	34	17	57
6	Sportivo Italiano	32	14	10	8	36	25	52
7	Real Pilar	32	14	9	9	36	31	51
8	Deportivo Laferrere	32	12	9	11	38	41	45
9	Deportivo Armenio	31	12	8	11	33	34	44
10	Club Comunicaciones	32	11	10	11	32	31	43
11	Argentino Merlo	32	10	10	12	30	32	40
12	San Martin De Burzaco	32	9	13	10	31	34	40
13	Deportivo Merlo	31	9	12	10	33	45	39
14	Villa San Carlos	32	9	11	12	34	37	38
15	CS Dock Sud	31	8	13	10	34	33	37
16	Argentino Quilmes	32	8	13	11	28	33	37
17	Defensores Unidos	32	7	11	14	28	36	32
18	Deportivo Liniers	31	7	11	13	21	31	32
19	CSD Flandria	32	8	8	16	26	39	32
20	CA Brown de Adrogue	32	7	11	14	20	34	32
21	UAI Urquiza	32	3	19	10	15	28	28
22	CA Ituzaingo	32	1	11	20	19	49	14

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CA Ituzaingo	CS Dock Sud
Arsenal de Sarandi	0-2 L	0-0 D
Atletico Camioneros	0-1 L	2-2 D
Sportivo Italiano	0-0 D	0-4 L
San Martin De Burzaco	1-2 L	4-1 W
Villa San Carlos	1-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 4 L	1 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: CS Dock Sud (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CA Ituzaingo

LDLLDDLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/08	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	0	4	L
22/08	Deportivo Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
15/08	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	1	4	D
08/08	Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
01/08	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
25/07	Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
18/07	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	3	7	L
15/07	San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-2	2	7	L
10/07	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
04/07	Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-3	5	5	L

CS Dock Sud

DWLDWDDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	2-2	6	4	D
15/08	Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	0-4	9	6	L
09/08	San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	4-1	13	3	W
02/08	Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
25/07	Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
18/07	Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
14/07	UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
10/07	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-2	3	6	L
04/07	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	3-1	4	6	W
28/06	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	1	10	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CA Ituzaingo vs CS Dock Sud?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CS Dock Sud win (46%). Probabilities: CA Ituzaingo 23%, draw 31%, CS Dock Sud 46%.

How many goals are expected in CA Ituzaingo vs CS Dock Sud?

The model expects 2.07 goals (CA Ituzaingo 0.81 · CS Dock Sud 1.27), with a 51% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in CA Ituzaingo vs CS Dock Sud?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.