Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 29/08, 20:00

Prediction: Argentino Quilmes vs Sportivo Italiano

Team pages: Argentino Quilmes · Sportivo Italiano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.88Total

Argentino Quilmes0.8

Sportivo Italiano1.08

1X2

26% 33% 41%

Argentino Quilmes Draw Sportivo Italiano

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 57% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-0 17%

Recent form · 10 last

Argentino Quilmes 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LLWDDDDWLL

Sportivo Italiano 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWWWDDWWLL

Head-to-head

Argentino Quilmes 1–3–2 Sportivo Italiano (6 last)

Sportivo Italiano2-1Argentino Quilmes
Sportivo Italiano3-1Argentino Quilmes
Argentino Quilmes0-0Sportivo Italiano
Argentino Quilmes1-0Sportivo Italiano
Sportivo Italiano1-1Argentino Quilmes
Sportivo Italiano1-1Argentino Quilmes

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Argentino Quilmes 1463 · Sportivo Italiano 1541

	Argentino Quilmes	Draw	Sportivo Italiano
Our model	25%	34%	41%
Market	26%	32%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 1.88 goals · Bet365 line 1.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sportivo Italiano (rating 1463 vs 1541).
H2H favours Sportivo Italiano: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Argentino Quilmes	Sportivo Italiano
Goals for / against (FT)	0.4 / 1.1	1.4 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.2	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.8 / 2.9	2 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.2	5.2 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.40

X2.80

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.80

Under 1.752.00

Diff.: 0 · xG: 1.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
X	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
04:03 +11’	3.40	2.80	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Argentino Quilmes 1–3–2 Sportivo Italiano

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Sportivo Italiano	2-1 HT 1-0	Argentino Quilmes
09/07/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Sportivo Italiano	3-1 HT 2-1	Argentino Quilmes
18/02/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Argentino Quilmes	0-0 HT 0-0	Sportivo Italiano
11/09/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Argentino Quilmes	1-0 HT 0-0	Sportivo Italiano
14/04/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Sportivo Italiano	1-1 HT 0-1	Argentino Quilmes
20/04/19 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Sportivo Italiano	1-1 HT 0-1	Argentino Quilmes

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	32	18	8	6	49	24	62
2	Atletico Camioneros	32	16	11	5	39	20	59
3	Villa Dalmine	32	16	11	5	35	16	59
4	Arsenal de Sarandi	32	15	12	5	41	22	57
5	Talleres Remedios	32	16	9	7	34	17	57
6	Sportivo Italiano	32	14	10	8	36	25	52
7	Real Pilar	32	14	9	9	36	31	51
8	Deportivo Laferrere	32	12	9	11	38	41	45
9	Deportivo Armenio	31	12	8	11	33	34	44
10	Club Comunicaciones	32	11	10	11	32	31	43
11	Argentino Merlo	32	10	10	12	30	32	40
12	San Martin De Burzaco	32	9	13	10	31	34	40
13	Deportivo Merlo	31	9	12	10	33	45	39
14	Villa San Carlos	32	9	11	12	34	37	38
15	CS Dock Sud	31	8	13	10	34	33	37
16	Argentino Quilmes	32	8	13	11	28	33	37
17	Defensores Unidos	32	7	11	14	28	36	32
18	Deportivo Liniers	31	7	11	13	21	31	32
19	CSD Flandria	32	8	8	16	26	39	32
20	CA Brown de Adrogue	32	7	11	14	20	34	32
21	UAI Urquiza	32	3	19	10	15	28	28
22	CA Ituzaingo	32	1	11	20	19	49	14

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Argentino Quilmes	Sportivo Italiano
San Martin De Burzaco	2-3 L	2-1 W
Villa San Carlos	0-2 L	1-0 W
Deportivo Liniers	1-0 W	1-0 W
Real Pilar	0-0 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Sportivo Italiano (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Argentino Quilmes

LLWDDDDWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/08	San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	2-3	7	7	L
23/08	Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	2	7	L
16/08	Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
08/08	Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	0	3	D
01/08	UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
25/07	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	1	6	D
18/07	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
14/07	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	5	9	W
10/07	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-3	2	10	L
05/07	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-3	3	7	L

Sportivo Italiano

DWWWDDWWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/08	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
21/08	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	4	7	L
15/08	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	4-0	4	6	W
09/08	Deportivo Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	3-0	4-0	2	1	W
01/08	Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	6	11	D
25/07	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
18/07	San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	2-1	1	7	W
14/07	Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
10/07	Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
05/07	Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	5	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Argentino Quilmes vs Sportivo Italiano?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sportivo Italiano win (41%). Probabilities: Argentino Quilmes 26%, draw 33%, Sportivo Italiano 41%.

How many goals are expected in Argentino Quilmes vs Sportivo Italiano?

The model expects 1.88 goals (Argentino Quilmes 0.8 · Sportivo Italiano 1.08), with a 51% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Argentino Quilmes vs Sportivo Italiano?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.