Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 29/08, 20:00

Prediction: Deportivo Laferrere vs Real Pilar

Team pages: Deportivo Laferrere · Real Pilar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.38Total

Deportivo Laferrere1.26

Real Pilar1.12

1X2

38% 31% 31%

Deportivo Laferrere Draw Real Pilar

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Laferrere 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDWWLWDLLW

Real Pilar 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWLLWWDDWW

Head-to-head

Deportivo Laferrere 2–1–3 Real Pilar (6 last)

Real Pilar1-0Deportivo Laferrere
Real Pilar1-1Deportivo Laferrere
Deportivo Laferrere1-2Real Pilar
Deportivo Laferrere2-0Real Pilar
Real Pilar0-1Deportivo Laferrere
Deportivo Laferrere0-2Real Pilar

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Laferrere 1511 · Real Pilar 1543

	Deportivo Laferrere	Draw	Real Pilar
Our model	38%	30%	31%
Market	37%	32%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.38 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Real Pilar: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Laferrere	Real Pilar
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.3	1.2 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.8	2.3 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.5	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.38

X2.80

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.08

2 (+0.25)1.73

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38
X	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
04:11 +3’	2.38	2.80	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Laferrere 2–1–3 Real Pilar

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Real Pilar	1-0 HT 1-0	Deportivo Laferrere
29/06/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Real Pilar	1-1 HT 1-1	Deportivo Laferrere
08/02/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Deportivo Laferrere	1-2 HT 0-1	Real Pilar
04/06/23 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Deportivo Laferrere	2-0 HT 0-0	Real Pilar
28/01/23 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Real Pilar	0-1 HT 0-0	Deportivo Laferrere
26/06/22 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Deportivo Laferrere	0-2 HT 0-0	Real Pilar

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	32	18	8	6	49	24	62
2	Atletico Camioneros	32	16	11	5	39	20	59
3	Villa Dalmine	32	16	11	5	35	16	59
4	Arsenal de Sarandi	32	15	12	5	41	22	57
5	Talleres Remedios	32	16	9	7	34	17	57
6	Sportivo Italiano	32	14	10	8	36	25	52
7	Real Pilar	32	14	9	9	36	31	51
8	Deportivo Laferrere	32	12	9	11	38	41	45
9	Deportivo Armenio	31	12	8	11	33	34	44
10	Club Comunicaciones	32	11	10	11	32	31	43
11	Argentino Merlo	32	10	10	12	30	32	40
12	San Martin De Burzaco	32	9	13	10	31	34	40
13	Deportivo Merlo	31	9	12	10	33	45	39
14	Villa San Carlos	32	9	11	12	34	37	38
15	CS Dock Sud	31	8	13	10	34	33	37
16	Argentino Quilmes	32	8	13	11	28	33	37
17	Defensores Unidos	32	7	11	14	28	36	32
18	Deportivo Liniers	31	7	11	13	21	31	32
19	CSD Flandria	32	8	8	16	26	39	32
20	CA Brown de Adrogue	32	7	11	14	20	34	32
21	UAI Urquiza	32	3	19	10	15	28	28
22	CA Ituzaingo	32	1	11	20	19	49	14

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Laferrere	Real Pilar
CA Brown de Adrogue	1-0 W	2-0 W
Deportivo Armenio	1-1 D	1-0 W
CSD Flandria	2-1 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Real Pilar (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Laferrere

WDWWLWDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/08	UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	2-0	1	5	W
22/08	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	0-2	8	3	L
15/08	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	3-5	6	7	L
09/08	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
01/08	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-1	3-1	3	3	W
26/07	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	5	1	L
18/07	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	5	7	W
15/07	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
10/07	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
04/07	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	2-1	9	4	W

Real Pilar

DWLLWWDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/08	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	2-0	2	4	W
22/08	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
15/08	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
08/08	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
01/08	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
25/07	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	2-1	3	8	W
18/07	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
15/07	Deportivo Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-2	2-3	6	6	L
10/07	Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-1	2-1	1	2	W
05/07	Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	7	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Laferrere vs Real Pilar?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Laferrere win (38%). Probabilities: Deportivo Laferrere 38%, draw 31%, Real Pilar 31%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Laferrere vs Real Pilar?

The model expects 2.38 goals (Deportivo Laferrere 1.26 · Real Pilar 1.12), with a 56% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Laferrere vs Real Pilar?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.