Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 25/07, 22:00

Prediction: CA Ituzaingo vs Sportivo Italiano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.08Total

CA Ituzaingo0.81

Sportivo Italiano1.27

1X2

22% 31% 46%

CA Ituzaingo Draw Sportivo Italiano

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-1

Recent form · 10 last

CA Ituzaingo 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

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Sportivo Italiano 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

CA Ituzaingo 2–3–1 Sportivo Italiano (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CA Ituzaingo 1427 · Sportivo Italiano 1508

	CA Ituzaingo	Draw	Sportivo Italiano
Our model	22%	32%	46%
Market	23%	31%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 2.08 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sportivo Italiano (rating 1427 vs 1508).
H2H favours CA Ituzaingo: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CA Ituzaingo	Sportivo Italiano
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.7	1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.4	1.9 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.2 / 0.9	5.2 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

14.00

X2.88

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 21.93

Under 21.88

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
X	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
2	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
01:19 +1’	4.00	2.88	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Ituzaingo 2–3–1 Sportivo Italiano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Sportivo Italiano	0-0 HT 0-0	CA Ituzaingo
09/12/21 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	CA Ituzaingo	2-1 HT 0-0	Sportivo Italiano
04/12/21 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Sportivo Italiano	0-0 HT 0-0	CA Ituzaingo
26/09/21 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Sportivo Italiano	0-1 HT 0-0	CA Ituzaingo
09/05/21 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	CA Ituzaingo	0-2 HT 0-0	Sportivo Italiano
18/12/20 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Sportivo Italiano	0-0 HT 0-0	CA Ituzaingo

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Arsenal de Sarandi	26	14	8	4	37	19	50
2	Excursionistas	26	14	7	5	37	17	49
3	Talleres Remedios	26	14	7	5	29	13	49
4	Villa Dalmine	26	13	9	4	30	14	48
5	Atletico Camioneros	26	13	8	5	31	17	47
6	Sportivo Italiano	26	12	8	6	27	21	44
7	Club Comunicaciones	26	10	8	8	30	26	38
8	Deportivo Laferrere	26	10	8	8	29	30	38
9	Real Pilar	26	10	7	9	29	29	37
10	Deportivo Armenio	26	10	7	9	30	31	37
11	Deportivo Merlo	26	9	9	8	31	38	36
12	San Martin De Burzaco	26	8	11	7	26	23	35
13	Argentino Merlo	26	9	8	9	26	24	35
14	CS Dock Sud	26	7	10	9	26	24	31
15	Argentino Quilmes	26	7	10	9	25	28	31
16	Deportivo Liniers	26	6	9	11	17	26	27
17	CSD Flandria	26	7	5	14	20	32	26
18	Defensores Unidos	26	5	10	11	20	29	25
19	UAI Urquiza	26	3	15	8	12	22	24
20	CA Brown de Adrogue	26	5	9	12	16	29	24
21	Villa San Carlos	26	4	10	12	24	33	22
22	CA Ituzaingo	26	1	7	18	18	45	10

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CA Ituzaingo	Sportivo Italiano
San Martin De Burzaco	1-2 L	2-1 W
Villa San Carlos	1-3 L	1-0 W
Deportivo Liniers	1-1 D	1-0 W
Real Pilar	2-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Sportivo Italiano (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CA Ituzaingo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	3	7	L
15/07	San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-2	2	7	L
10/07	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
04/07	Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-3	5	5	L
27/06	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
20/06	Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	2	3	D
13/06	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	2-3	5	8	L
05/06	Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	2-0	4	12	W
01/06	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	1	11	L
27/05	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	5	7	L

Sportivo Italiano

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	2-1	1	7	W
14/07	Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
10/07	Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
05/07	Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	5	5	D
28/06	UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
20/06	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-2	4	5	L
13/06	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	9	8	L
06/06	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	3-1	2	6	W
31/05	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	4	6	L
27/05	San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-2	3	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CA Ituzaingo vs Sportivo Italiano?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sportivo Italiano win (46%). Probabilities: CA Ituzaingo 22%, draw 31%, Sportivo Italiano 46%.

How many goals are expected in CA Ituzaingo vs Sportivo Italiano?

The model expects 2.08 goals (CA Ituzaingo 0.81 · Sportivo Italiano 1.27), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in CA Ituzaingo vs Sportivo Italiano?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.