Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 25/07, 22:00

Prediction: Defensores Unidos vs UAI Urquiza

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.9Total

Defensores Unidos1.11

UAI Urquiza0.79

1X2

42% 33% 25%

Defensores Unidos Draw UAI Urquiza

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 58% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-0

Recent form · 10 last

Defensores Unidos 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WWLDLLDLLD

UAI Urquiza 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

LLWDDDLDDL

Head-to-head

Defensores Unidos 4–2–0 UAI Urquiza (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Defensores Unidos 1462 · UAI Urquiza 1451

	Defensores Unidos	Draw	UAI Urquiza
Our model	42%	34%	25%
Market	43%	32%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 1.9 goals · Bet365 line 1.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Defensores Unidos: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Defensores Unidos	UAI Urquiza
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.3	0.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.5	0.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.6	2.9 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.1	3.8 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.10

X2.80

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.80

Under 1.752.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 1.7

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 03:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.10▲	Bet365 2.10
X	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
2	3.75 → 3.50▼	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
01:19 +1’	2.00	2.80	3.75
03:21 +2’	2.10▲	2.80	3.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Defensores Unidos 4–2–0 UAI Urquiza

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	UAI Urquiza	2-2 HT 2-1	Defensores Unidos
13/08/22 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Defensores Unidos	2-1 HT 1-1	UAI Urquiza
16/04/22 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	UAI Urquiza	0-2 HT 0-0	Defensores Unidos
03/10/21 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	UAI Urquiza	2-2 HT 1-2	Defensores Unidos
07/06/21 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Defensores Unidos	1-0 HT 0-0	UAI Urquiza
10/11/19 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Defensores Unidos	2-0 HT 1-0	UAI Urquiza

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Arsenal de Sarandi	26	14	8	4	37	19	50
2	Excursionistas	26	14	7	5	37	17	49
3	Talleres Remedios	26	14	7	5	29	13	49
4	Villa Dalmine	26	13	9	4	30	14	48
5	Atletico Camioneros	26	13	8	5	31	17	47
6	Sportivo Italiano	26	12	8	6	27	21	44
7	Club Comunicaciones	26	10	8	8	30	26	38
8	Deportivo Laferrere	26	10	8	8	29	30	38
9	Real Pilar	26	10	7	9	29	29	37
10	Deportivo Armenio	26	10	7	9	30	31	37
11	Deportivo Merlo	26	9	9	8	31	38	36
12	San Martin De Burzaco	26	8	11	7	26	23	35
13	Argentino Merlo	26	9	8	9	26	24	35
14	CS Dock Sud	26	7	10	9	26	24	31
15	Argentino Quilmes	26	7	10	9	25	28	31
16	Deportivo Liniers	26	6	9	11	17	26	27
17	CSD Flandria	26	7	5	14	20	32	26
18	Defensores Unidos	26	5	10	11	20	29	25
19	UAI Urquiza	26	3	15	8	12	22	24
20	CA Brown de Adrogue	26	5	9	12	16	29	24
21	Villa San Carlos	26	4	10	12	24	33	22
22	CA Ituzaingo	26	1	7	18	18	45	10

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Defensores Unidos

WWLDLLDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	7	7	D
14/07	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	7	4	L
10/07	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-2	1-3	1	5	L
05/07	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	6	6	D
27/06	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	2	6	L
20/06	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
13/06	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
06/06	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-3	2	5	L
31/05	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	9	5	W
27/05	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	2-1	2	9	W

UAI Urquiza

LLWDDDLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
14/07	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	8	7	D
10/07	Deportivo Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
04/07	Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	0-4	1	3	L
28/06	Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
20/06	San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	10	6	D
13/06	Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
08/06	Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	2-1	6	4	W
30/05	Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-2	8	2	L
27/05	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-3	2	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Defensores Unidos vs UAI Urquiza?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Defensores Unidos win (42%). Probabilities: Defensores Unidos 42%, draw 33%, UAI Urquiza 25%.

How many goals are expected in Defensores Unidos vs UAI Urquiza?

The model expects 1.9 goals (Defensores Unidos 1.11 · UAI Urquiza 0.79), with a 51% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Defensores Unidos vs UAI Urquiza?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.