Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 14/07, 20:00
Prediction: Sportivo Italiano vs Villa San Carlos
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.74Total
Sportivo Italiano1.13
Villa San Carlos0.61
1X2
Sportivo Italiano
Draw
Villa San Carlos
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 53%
Not both to score 55%
Most likely score
0-0
Recent form · 10 last
Sportivo Italiano
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Villa San Carlos
1-7-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sportivo Italiano
2–3–1
Villa San Carlos
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sportivo Italiano 1499 · Villa San Carlos 1482
| Sportivo Italiano | Draw | Villa San Carlos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 34% | 19% |
| Market | 49% | 30% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.74 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 72%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Sportivo Italiano: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sportivo Italiano | Villa San Carlos | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1 | 0.7 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.1 | 0.2 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.2 | 2.5 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.4 | 5.5 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sportivo Italiano 2–3–1 Villa San Carlos
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/03/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Villa San Carlos | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Sportivo Italiano |
| 05/09/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Sportivo Italiano | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Villa San Carlos |
| 19/04/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Villa San Carlos | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Sportivo Italiano |
| 12/10/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Sportivo Italiano | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Villa San Carlos |
| 25/05/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Villa San Carlos | 2-2 HT 0-0 | Sportivo Italiano |
| 03/02/19 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | Villa San Carlos | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Sportivo Italiano |
Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal de Sarandi | 24 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 36 | 18 | 47 |
| 2 | Villa Dalmine | 24 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 30 | 14 | 46 |
| 3 | Talleres Remedios | 24 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 27 | 11 | 46 |
| 4 | Excursionistas | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 35 | 17 | 45 |
| 5 | Atletico Camioneros | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 28 | 17 | 41 |
| 6 | Sportivo Italiano | 24 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 24 | 20 | 38 |
| 7 | Real Pilar | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 27 | 25 | 37 |
| 8 | Argentino Merlo | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 24 | 21 | 34 |
| 9 | Club Comunicaciones | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 28 | 26 | 34 |
| 10 | Deportivo Armenio | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 26 | 28 | 33 |
| 11 | San Martin De Burzaco | 24 | 7 | 11 | 6 | 23 | 20 | 32 |
| 12 | Deportivo Laferrere | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 26 | 30 | 32 |
| 13 | Deportivo Merlo | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 27 | 35 | 32 |
| 14 | CS Dock Sud | 24 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 25 | 24 | 27 |
| 15 | Argentino Quilmes | 24 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 24 | 28 | 27 |
| 16 | Deportivo Liniers | 24 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 24 | 26 |
| 17 | Defensores Unidos | 24 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 20 | 27 | 24 |
| 18 | CA Brown de Adrogue | 24 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 16 | 27 | 24 |
| 19 | UAI Urquiza | 24 | 3 | 14 | 7 | 12 | 20 | 23 |
| 20 | CSD Flandria | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 19 | 31 | 23 |
| 21 | Villa San Carlos | 24 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 24 | 30 | 22 |
| 22 | CA Ituzaingo | 24 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 17 | 41 | 10 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sportivo Italiano | Villa San Carlos |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Liniers | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Real Pilar | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| UAI Urquiza | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| Villa Dalmine | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Excursionistas | 0-1 L | 0-2 L |
| Arsenal de Sarandi | 3-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Argentino Merlo | 0-2 L | 0-0 D |
| San Martin De Burzaco | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 4 L | 0 W 7 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sportivo Italiano
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 05/07 | Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 28/06 | UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 20/06 | Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 13/06 | Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 8 | L |
| 06/06 | Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
2-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 31/05 | Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 27/05 | San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 23/05 | Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 18/05 | Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
Villa San Carlos
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 04/07 | CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 28/06 | Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 20/06 | Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 13/06 | UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 06/06 | Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 31/05 | Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 26/05 | Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 22/05 | Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 8 | D |
| 16/05 | Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sportivo Italiano vs Villa San Carlos?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sportivo Italiano win (48%). Probabilities: Sportivo Italiano 48%, draw 32%, Villa San Carlos 20%.
How many goals are expected in Sportivo Italiano vs Villa San Carlos?
The model expects 1.74 goals (Sportivo Italiano 1.13 · Villa San Carlos 0.61), with a 59% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Sportivo Italiano vs Villa San Carlos?
The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.