Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 15/07, 00:00
Prediction: Deportivo Merlo vs Real Pilar
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.21Total
Deportivo Merlo1.1
Real Pilar1.1
1X2
Deportivo Merlo
Draw
Real Pilar
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Deportivo Merlo
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Real Pilar
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Deportivo Merlo
2–1–2
Real Pilar
(5 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Deportivo Merlo 1491 · Real Pilar 1486
| Deportivo Merlo | Draw | Real Pilar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 32% | 34% |
| Market | 34% | 32% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.21 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Deportivo Merlo | Real Pilar | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.8 | 0.8 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 1.1 | 0.6 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 2.9 | 2.4 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.1 / 0.3 | 4.1 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Merlo 2–1–2 Real Pilar
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/03/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Real Pilar | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Deportivo Merlo |
| 04/10/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Real Pilar | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Deportivo Merlo |
| 18/05/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Deportivo Merlo | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Real Pilar |
| 19/12/20 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | Deportivo Merlo | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Real Pilar |
| 17/11/19 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | Real Pilar | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Deportivo Merlo |
Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal de Sarandi | 24 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 36 | 18 | 47 |
| 2 | Villa Dalmine | 24 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 30 | 14 | 46 |
| 3 | Talleres Remedios | 24 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 27 | 11 | 46 |
| 4 | Excursionistas | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 35 | 17 | 45 |
| 5 | Atletico Camioneros | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 28 | 17 | 41 |
| 6 | Sportivo Italiano | 24 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 24 | 20 | 38 |
| 7 | Real Pilar | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 27 | 25 | 37 |
| 8 | Argentino Merlo | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 24 | 21 | 34 |
| 9 | Club Comunicaciones | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 28 | 26 | 34 |
| 10 | Deportivo Armenio | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 26 | 28 | 33 |
| 11 | San Martin De Burzaco | 24 | 7 | 11 | 6 | 23 | 20 | 32 |
| 12 | Deportivo Laferrere | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 26 | 30 | 32 |
| 13 | Deportivo Merlo | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 27 | 35 | 32 |
| 14 | CS Dock Sud | 24 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 25 | 24 | 27 |
| 15 | Argentino Quilmes | 24 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 24 | 28 | 27 |
| 16 | Deportivo Liniers | 24 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 24 | 26 |
| 17 | Defensores Unidos | 24 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 20 | 27 | 24 |
| 18 | CA Brown de Adrogue | 24 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 16 | 27 | 24 |
| 19 | UAI Urquiza | 24 | 3 | 14 | 7 | 12 | 20 | 23 |
| 20 | CSD Flandria | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 19 | 31 | 23 |
| 21 | Villa San Carlos | 24 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 24 | 30 | 22 |
| 22 | CA Ituzaingo | 24 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 17 | 41 | 10 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Deportivo Merlo | Real Pilar |
|---|---|---|
| UAI Urquiza | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Villa Dalmine | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Excursionistas | 0-5 L | 0-1 L |
| Deportivo Liniers | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Real Pilar (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Deportivo Merlo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 04/07 | Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 27/06 | Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-3 | 0-5 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 21/06 | Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-3 | 2-4 | 2 | 9 | L |
| 15/06 | Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 06/06 | Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 03/06 | Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 27/05 | Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 23/05 | CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 7 | W |
| 17/05 | Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
2-0 | 3-2 | 1 | 8 | W |
Real Pilar
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
2-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 05/07 | Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 27/06 | San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 20/06 | Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 14/06 | Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 05/06 | CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 12 | L |
| 30/05 | UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 26/05 | CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 16/05 | Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Deportivo Merlo vs Real Pilar?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Merlo win (34%). Probabilities: Deportivo Merlo 34%, draw 32%, Real Pilar 34%.
How many goals are expected in Deportivo Merlo vs Real Pilar?
The model expects 2.21 goals (Deportivo Merlo 1.1 · Real Pilar 1.1), with a 56% chance of over 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Deportivo Merlo vs Real Pilar?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.