Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 14/07, 20:00
Prediction: Defensores Unidos vs Excursionistas
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.23Total
Defensores Unidos0.89
Excursionistas1.34
1X2
Defensores Unidos
Draw
Excursionistas
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Defensores Unidos
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Excursionistas
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Defensores Unidos
2–1
Excursionistas
(3 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Defensores Unidos 1465 · Excursionistas 1548
| Defensores Unidos | Draw | Excursionistas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 24% | 31% | 46% |
| Market | 24% | 30% | 46% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.23 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Excursionistas (rating 1465 vs 1548).
- H2H favours Defensores Unidos: 2-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Defensores Unidos | Excursionistas | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.3 | 2 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.6 | 0.7 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.2 | 2.8 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.6 / 0.3 | 5.4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Defensores Unidos 2–0–1 Excursionistas
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/03/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Excursionistas | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Defensores Unidos |
| 01/04/18 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | Excursionistas | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Defensores Unidos |
| 04/11/17 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | Defensores Unidos | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Excursionistas |
Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal de Sarandi | 24 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 36 | 18 | 47 |
| 2 | Villa Dalmine | 24 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 30 | 14 | 46 |
| 3 | Talleres Remedios | 24 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 27 | 11 | 46 |
| 4 | Excursionistas | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 35 | 17 | 45 |
| 5 | Atletico Camioneros | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 28 | 17 | 41 |
| 6 | Sportivo Italiano | 24 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 24 | 20 | 38 |
| 7 | Real Pilar | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 27 | 25 | 37 |
| 8 | Argentino Merlo | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 24 | 21 | 34 |
| 9 | Club Comunicaciones | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 28 | 26 | 34 |
| 10 | Deportivo Armenio | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 26 | 28 | 33 |
| 11 | San Martin De Burzaco | 24 | 7 | 11 | 6 | 23 | 20 | 32 |
| 12 | Deportivo Laferrere | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 26 | 30 | 32 |
| 13 | Deportivo Merlo | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 27 | 35 | 32 |
| 14 | CS Dock Sud | 24 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 25 | 24 | 27 |
| 15 | Argentino Quilmes | 24 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 24 | 28 | 27 |
| 16 | Deportivo Liniers | 24 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 24 | 26 |
| 17 | Defensores Unidos | 24 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 20 | 27 | 24 |
| 18 | CA Brown de Adrogue | 24 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 16 | 27 | 24 |
| 19 | UAI Urquiza | 24 | 3 | 14 | 7 | 12 | 20 | 23 |
| 20 | CSD Flandria | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 19 | 31 | 23 |
| 21 | Villa San Carlos | 24 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 24 | 30 | 22 |
| 22 | CA Ituzaingo | 24 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 17 | 41 | 10 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Defensores Unidos
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 05/07 | Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 27/06 | Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 20/06 | Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 13/06 | CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 06/06 | Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 31/05 | CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 27/05 | Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 23/05 | Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 9 | W |
Excursionistas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 04/07 | CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 27/06 | Deportivo Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
3-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 20/06 | Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 13/06 | Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 06/06 | San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 31/05 | Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 27/05 | Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 16/05 | Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Defensores Unidos vs Excursionistas?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Excursionistas win (46%). Probabilities: Defensores Unidos 24%, draw 30%, Excursionistas 46%.
How many goals are expected in Defensores Unidos vs Excursionistas?
The model expects 2.23 goals (Defensores Unidos 0.89 · Excursionistas 1.34), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Defensores Unidos vs Excursionistas?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.