Prediction: UAI Urquiza vs Deportivo Merlo
Expected goals: 2.02 (UAI Urquiza 1.04 · Deportivo Merlo 0.98). The model gives 35% home, 33% draw, 32% away. Over 1.75 goals (53%) and not both to score (51%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Recent form leaves UAI Urquiza with 1 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses over 10 games; Deportivo Merlo has piled up 3-2-5 in the same span. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, UAI Urquiza won 1 and Deportivo Merlo 1, with 4 draws.
| UAI Urquiza | Draw | Deportivo Merlo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 33% | 32% |
| Market | 35% | 33% | 32% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| UAI Urquiza | Deportivo Merlo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.4 / 1.1 | 1.1 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/60/40% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.5 | 1.3 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.3 | 5.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · UAI Urquiza 1–4–1 Deportivo Merlo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Deportivo Merlo | 0-0 HT 0-0 | UAI Urquiza |
| 30/09/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Deportivo Merlo | 1-2 HT 0-1 | UAI Urquiza |
| 10/05/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | UAI Urquiza | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Deportivo Merlo |
| 24/08/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | UAI Urquiza | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Deportivo Merlo |
| 06/04/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Deportivo Merlo | 1-1 HT 1-0 | UAI Urquiza |
| 12/06/23 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana | Deportivo Merlo | 1-0 HT 1-0 | UAI Urquiza |
Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excursionistas | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 34 | 15 | 45 |
| 2 | Talleres Remedios | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 26 | 10 | 45 |
| 3 | Arsenal de Sarandi | 23 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 33 | 17 | 44 |
| 4 | Villa Dalmine | 23 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 28 | 13 | 43 |
| 5 | Atletico Camioneros | 23 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 27 | 15 | 41 |
| 6 | Sportivo Italiano | 23 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 23 | 20 | 35 |
| 7 | Real Pilar | 23 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 25 | 24 | 34 |
| 8 | Deportivo Armenio | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 25 | 27 | 32 |
| 9 | San Martin De Burzaco | 23 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 23 | 20 | 31 |
| 10 | Club Comunicaciones | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 26 | 25 | 31 |
| 11 | Argentino Merlo | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 21 | 21 | 31 |
| 12 | Deportivo Laferrere | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 25 | 29 | 31 |
| 13 | Deportivo Merlo | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 27 | 35 | 31 |
| 14 | CS Dock Sud | 23 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 24 | 22 | 27 |
| 15 | Argentino Quilmes | 23 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 24 | 25 | 27 |
| 16 | Deportivo Liniers | 23 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 16 | 23 | 26 |
| 17 | Defensores Unidos | 23 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 19 | 24 | 24 |
| 18 | CA Brown de Adrogue | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 27 | 23 |
| 19 | UAI Urquiza | 23 | 3 | 13 | 7 | 12 | 20 | 22 |
| 20 | CSD Flandria | 23 | 6 | 4 | 13 | 18 | 30 | 22 |
| 21 | Villa San Carlos | 23 | 4 | 9 | 10 | 24 | 30 | 21 |
| 22 | CA Ituzaingo | 23 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 17 | 41 | 9 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | UAI Urquiza | Deportivo Merlo |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Liniers | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Villa Dalmine | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| Excursionistas | 0-0 D | 0-5 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 0 L | 0 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: UAI Urquiza (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
UAI Urquiza
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-2 | 0-4 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 28/06 | Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 20/06 | San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 13/06 | Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 08/06 | Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 30/05 | Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 27/05 | Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 23/05 | CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 16/05 | Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 09/05 | Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | D |
Deportivo Merlo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 27/06 | Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-3 | 0-5 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 21/06 | Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
1-3 | 2-4 | 2 | 9 | L |
| 15/06 | Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 06/06 | Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 03/06 | Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 27/05 | Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 23/05 | CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 7 | W |
| 17/05 | Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
2-0 | 3-2 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 09/05 | CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in UAI Urquiza vs Deportivo Merlo?
According to our model, the most likely result is a UAI Urquiza win (35%). Probabilities: UAI Urquiza 35%, draw 33%, Deportivo Merlo 32%.
How many goals are expected in UAI Urquiza vs Deportivo Merlo?
The model expects 2.02 goals (UAI Urquiza 1.04 · Deportivo Merlo 0.98), with a 53% chance of over 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in UAI Urquiza vs Deportivo Merlo?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.