Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 09/08, 14:00

Prediction: Malmo FF vs Degerfors

Team pages: Malmo FF · Degerfors

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.29Total

Malmo FF2.16

Degerfors1.13

1X2

60% 23% 18%

Malmo FF Draw Degerfors

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Malmo FF 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLLWDWWDLW

Degerfors 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LDLDWLLLLL

Head-to-head

Malmo FF 5–1–0 Degerfors (6 last)

Degerfors0-1Malmo FF
Malmo FF1-1Degerfors
Degerfors1-4Malmo FF
Degerfors1-2Malmo FF
Malmo FF5-0Degerfors
Malmo FF2-1Degerfors

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Malmo FF 1503 · Degerfors 1427

	Malmo FF	Draw	Degerfors
Our model	60%	22%	18%
Market	59%	23%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.29 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Malmo FF (rating 1503 vs 1427).
H2H favours Malmo FF: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Malmo FF	Degerfors
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.9	0.8 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 1.4	0.1 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	0/10/90%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.2	2.2 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.55

X4.00

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.93

2 (+1)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.77

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.55 → 1.55	Bet365 1.55
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.30
2	5.25 → 5.25	Pinn 5.79 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.6% Pinnacle margin 6.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:31 +2’	1.55	4.00	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:33	1.52	4.30	5.79

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Malmo FF 5–1–0 Degerfors

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/07/26 Sweden Allsvenskan	Degerfors	0-1 HT 0-0	Malmo FF
31/08/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	Malmo FF	1-1 HT 1-1	Degerfors
11/05/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	Degerfors	1-4 HT 0-2	Malmo FF
23/09/23 Sweden Allsvenskan	Degerfors	1-2 HT 0-1	Malmo FF
05/06/23 Sweden Allsvenskan	Malmo FF	5-0 HT 2-0	Degerfors
05/03/23 Sweden Cup	Malmo FF	2-1 HT 0-0	Degerfors

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sirius	14	12	2	0	40	17	38
2	Hammarby	15	8	3	4	33	15	27
3	BK Hacken	15	6	7	2	28	23	25
4	Djurgarden	13	7	2	4	27	15	23
5	Vasteras SK	14	6	4	4	24	23	22
6	AIK	14	6	4	4	18	18	22
7	Elfsborg	15	5	6	4	20	18	21
8	Malmo FF	14	6	2	6	28	24	20
9	GAIS	15	5	5	5	19	15	20
10	Kalmar FF	15	5	3	7	19	21	18
11	Mjällby AIF	14	4	5	5	20	19	17
12	Brommapojkarna	14	4	5	5	19	22	17
13	IFK Goteborg	14	3	4	7	17	33	13
14	Degerfors	14	2	4	8	12	24	10
15	Orgryte IS	14	2	4	8	14	33	10
16	Halmstad	14	1	4	9	11	29	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Malmo FF	Degerfors
Brommapojkarna	2-1 W	2-2 D
Kalmar FF	2-2 D	1-2 L
IFK Goteborg	4-0 W	0-2 L
Vasteras SK	2-3 L	0-2 L
Hammarby	1-4 L	0-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Malmo FF (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Malmo FF

LLLWDWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	2-1	3	7	W
26/07	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	1-2	1-2	5	6	L
20/07	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-2	2-2	5	3	D
12/07	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	3-0	4-0	7	3	W
04/07	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
26/06	Midtjylland Club Friendly List	2-0	2-2	4	0	D
30/05	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	2-2	5-2	4	1	W
24/05	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	1-2	2-3	2	4	L
17/05	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	1-3	1-4	3	2	L
10/05	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	2-3	2-3	5	4	L

Degerfors

LDLDWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-2	7	4	L
25/07	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
19/07	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-4	2	1	L
12/07	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-2	6	9	L
04/07	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
26/06	Lillestrom Club Friendly List	1-2	3-2	2	1	W
31/05	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	2-2	3	1	D
23/05	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	1-2	8	3	L
16/05	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
09/05	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-3	1-4	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Malmo FF vs Degerfors?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Malmo FF win (60%). Probabilities: Malmo FF 60%, draw 23%, Degerfors 18%.

How many goals are expected in Malmo FF vs Degerfors?

The model expects 3.29 goals (Malmo FF 2.16 · Degerfors 1.13), with a 56% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Malmo FF vs Degerfors?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.