Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 10/08, 19:00

Prediction: Sirius vs Brommapojkarna

Team pages: Sirius · Brommapojkarna

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.72Total

Sirius2.62

Brommapojkarna1.1

1X2

69% 18% 13%

Sirius Draw Brommapojkarna

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Sirius 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWDDWWWW

Brommapojkarna 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LWWDLDLLDL

Head-to-head

Sirius 4–2 Brommapojkarna (6 last)

Brommapojkarna1-2Sirius
Brommapojkarna2-4Sirius
Sirius0-3Brommapojkarna
Brommapojkarna4-0Sirius
Sirius2-1Brommapojkarna
Sirius3-2Brommapojkarna

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sirius 1612 · Brommapojkarna 1450

	Sirius	Draw	Brommapojkarna
Our model	69%	18%	13%
Market	69%	19%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 3.72 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sirius (rating 1612 vs 1450).
H2H favours Sirius: 4-0-2.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sirius	Brommapojkarna
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1.1	1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	80/10/10%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.9 / 5.8	2.9 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	2.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.36

X5.00

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.82

2 (+1.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 04:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.36▲	Bet365 1.36
X	5.25 → 5.00▼	Bet365 5.00
2	7.50 → 7.50	Pinn 10.02 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.7% Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:42 +1’	1.33	5.25	7.50
04:42 +2’	1.36▲	5.00▼	7.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:42 +1’	1.32	4.83	9.92
09:32	1.30▼	4.88▲	10.06▲
16:40	1.30▼	4.91▲	10.10▲
17:59 +3’	1.32▲	4.87▼	10.02▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sirius 4–0–2 Brommapojkarna

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/07/26 Sweden Allsvenskan	Brommapojkarna	1-2 HT 0-2	Sirius
17/08/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	Brommapojkarna	2-4 HT 0-0	Sirius
13/04/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	Sirius	0-3 HT 0-0	Brommapojkarna
24/02/25 Club Friendly List	Brommapojkarna	4-0 HT 2-0	Sirius
29/01/25 Europe Friendlies	Sirius	2-1 HT 1-0	Brommapojkarna
15/09/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Sirius	3-2 HT 1-1	Brommapojkarna

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sirius	15	13	2	0	42	17	41
2	Hammarby	15	8	3	4	33	15	27
3	Djurgarden	14	8	2	4	33	15	26
4	BK Hacken	15	6	7	2	28	23	25
5	AIK	16	7	4	5	22	24	25
6	Elfsborg	16	6	6	4	21	18	24
7	Malmo FF	15	7	2	6	30	25	23
8	Vasteras SK	15	6	4	5	24	29	22
9	GAIS	15	5	5	5	19	15	20
10	Kalmar FF	15	5	3	7	19	21	18
11	Mjällby AIF	15	4	5	6	20	20	17
12	Brommapojkarna	15	4	5	6	20	24	17
13	IFK Goteborg	15	4	4	7	19	33	16
14	Orgryte IS	16	3	4	9	20	37	13
15	Degerfors	15	2	4	9	12	26	10
16	Halmstad	15	1	4	10	11	31	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sirius	Brommapojkarna
IFK Goteborg	4-1 W	1-2 L
Elfsborg	3-1 W	0-2 L
Djurgarden	1-1 D	2-1 W
GAIS	2-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sirius (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Sirius

WWWWDDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/08	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	2-0	10	1	W
26/07	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	4-1	4	5	W
19/07	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	3-1	4	5	W
12/07	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	2-1	7	1	W
03/07	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	4-4	9	1	D
26/06	Djurgarden Club Friendly List	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
30/05	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	3-0	3	7	W
24/05	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	2-1	7	4	W
18/05	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	3-2	3	5	W
11/05	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-0	5	1	W

Brommapojkarna

LWWDLDLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-2	4	7	L
26/07	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-1	2	1	D
17/07	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-2	5	3	L
12/07	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	0-2	1-2	5	1	L
06/07	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	1-1	3	2	D
27/06	Kalmar FF Club Friendly List	0-2	0-2	–	–	L
31/05	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-2	5	1	D
22/05	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	2-1	8	2	W
17/05	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
08/05	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-2	8	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sirius vs Brommapojkarna?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sirius win (69%). Probabilities: Sirius 69%, draw 18%, Brommapojkarna 13%.

How many goals are expected in Sirius vs Brommapojkarna?

The model expects 3.72 goals (Sirius 2.62 · Brommapojkarna 1.1), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sirius vs Brommapojkarna?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.