Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 09/08, 16:30

Prediction: IFK Goteborg vs Kalmar FF

Team pages: IFK Goteborg · Kalmar FF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.88Total

IFK Goteborg1.6

Kalmar FF1.28

1X2

44% 27% 30%

IFK Goteborg Draw Kalmar FF

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

IFK Goteborg 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WDLLLWLLWW

Kalmar FF 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWWWLDWD

Head-to-head

IFK Goteborg 2–2–2 Kalmar FF (6 last)

Kalmar FF1-1IFK Goteborg
IFK Goteborg1-1Kalmar FF
Kalmar FF0-1IFK Goteborg
IFK Goteborg2-0Kalmar FF
Kalmar FF2-0IFK Goteborg
Kalmar FF1-0IFK Goteborg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · IFK Goteborg 1486 · Kalmar FF 1526

	IFK Goteborg	Draw	Kalmar FF
Our model	44%	27%	30%
Market	44%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kalmar FF (rating 1486 vs 1526).
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	IFK Goteborg	Kalmar FF
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2	1.4 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1	1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.8	2.1 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.50

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.32 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4% Pinnacle margin 5.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:35 +1’	2.10	3.50	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:36	2.32	3.49	2.93

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · IFK Goteborg 2–2–2 Kalmar FF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/04/26 Sweden Allsvenskan	Kalmar FF	1-1 HT 1-1	IFK Goteborg
02/11/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	IFK Goteborg	1-1 HT 1-0	Kalmar FF
14/04/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Kalmar FF	0-1 HT 0-0	IFK Goteborg
30/07/23 Sweden Allsvenskan	IFK Goteborg	2-0 HT 1-0	Kalmar FF
09/04/23 Sweden Allsvenskan	Kalmar FF	2-0 HT 1-0	IFK Goteborg
22/08/22 Sweden Allsvenskan	Kalmar FF	1-0 HT 0-0	IFK Goteborg

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sirius	14	12	2	0	40	17	38
2	Hammarby	15	8	3	4	33	15	27
3	BK Hacken	15	6	7	2	28	23	25
4	Djurgarden	13	7	2	4	27	15	23
5	Vasteras SK	14	6	4	4	24	23	22
6	AIK	14	6	4	4	18	18	22
7	Elfsborg	15	5	6	4	20	18	21
8	Malmo FF	14	6	2	6	28	24	20
9	GAIS	15	5	5	5	19	15	20
10	Kalmar FF	15	5	3	7	19	21	18
11	Mjällby AIF	14	4	5	5	20	19	17
12	Brommapojkarna	14	4	5	5	19	22	17
13	IFK Goteborg	14	3	4	7	17	33	13
14	Degerfors	14	2	4	8	12	24	10
15	Orgryte IS	14	2	4	8	14	33	10
16	Halmstad	14	1	4	9	11	29	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	IFK Goteborg	Kalmar FF
Degerfors	2-0 W	2-1 W
Brommapojkarna	2-1 W	2-0 W
Malmo FF	0-4 L	2-2 D
AIK	1-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Kalmar FF (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

IFK Goteborg

WDLLLWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-0	8	4	W
30/07	FC Levadia Tallinn UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-0	1-0	8	8	W
26/07	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	1-2	1-4	4	5	L
21/07	FC Levadia Tallinn UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-2	1-2	5	7	L
17/07	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	2-1	10	3	W
12/07	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-3	0-4	4	3	L
05/07	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	1-2	10	2	L
27/06	Ham-Kam Club Friendly List	1-0	1-2	3	1	L
18/06	Valerenga Club Friendly List	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
31/05	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	4-2	5-4	3	2	W

Kalmar FF

LWLWWWLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	1-1	6	3	D
25/07	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	2-1	3	5	W
20/07	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	2-2	2	3	D
12/07	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-2	1	2	L
05/07	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	3-0	4	1	W
27/06	Brommapojkarna Club Friendly List	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
22/06	AIK Club Friendly List	2-0	2-0	3	2	W
30/05	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-3	3	3	L
23/05	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
17/05	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-1	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in IFK Goteborg vs Kalmar FF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a IFK Goteborg win (44%). Probabilities: IFK Goteborg 44%, draw 27%, Kalmar FF 30%.

How many goals are expected in IFK Goteborg vs Kalmar FF?

The model expects 2.88 goals (IFK Goteborg 1.6 · Kalmar FF 1.28), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs Kalmar FF?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.