Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 20/09, 14:00
Prediction: Djurgarden vs Elfsborg
Team pages: Djurgarden · Elfsborg
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.75Total
Djurgarden1.89
Elfsborg0.86
1X2
Djurgarden
Draw
Elfsborg
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Djurgarden
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Elfsborg
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Djurgarden
3–3
Elfsborg
(6 last)
- Elfsborg2-1Djurgarden
- Djurgarden1-0Elfsborg
- Elfsborg4-0Djurgarden
- Elfsborg1-2Djurgarden
- Djurgarden2-0Elfsborg
- Djurgarden0-4Elfsborg
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Djurgarden 1582 · Elfsborg 1541
| Djurgarden | Draw | Elfsborg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 24% | 16% |
| Market | 62% | 22% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.75 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Djurgarden (rating 1582 vs 1541).
- High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Djurgarden | Elfsborg | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 0.4 | 1.3 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.5 / 6.6 | 1.6 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0 | 3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Djurgarden 3–0–3 Elfsborg
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/04/26 Sweden Allsvenskan | Elfsborg | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Djurgarden |
| 19/07/25 Sweden Allsvenskan | Djurgarden | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Elfsborg |
| 19/05/25 Sweden Allsvenskan | Elfsborg | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Djurgarden |
| 28/07/24 Sweden Allsvenskan | Elfsborg | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Djurgarden |
| 12/05/24 Sweden Allsvenskan | Djurgarden | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Elfsborg |
| 22/07/23 Sweden Allsvenskan | Djurgarden | 0-4 HT 0-3 | Elfsborg |
Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sirius | 21 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 50 | 27 | 48 |
| 2 | Djurgarden | 21 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 46 | 19 | 41 |
| 3 | Hammarby | 21 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 48 | 20 | 40 |
| 4 | Elfsborg | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 29 | 21 | 34 |
| 5 | Malmo FF | 21 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 37 | 31 | 33 |
| 6 | BK Hacken | 21 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 34 | 30 | 33 |
| 7 | AIK | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 29 | 31 | 32 |
| 8 | Vasteras SK | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 32 | 35 | 32 |
| 9 | IFK Goteborg | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 30 | 41 | 29 |
| 10 | GAIS | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 25 | 20 | 27 |
| 11 | Brommapojkarna | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 30 | 35 | 27 |
| 12 | Mjällby AIF | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 26 | 34 | 21 |
| 13 | Kalmar FF | 21 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 21 | 31 | 19 |
| 14 | Degerfors | 21 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 19 | 33 | 19 |
| 15 | Orgryte IS | 21 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 24 | 47 | 15 |
| 16 | Halmstad | 21 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 14 | 39 | 11 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Djurgarden | Elfsborg |
|---|---|---|
| Kalmar FF | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Mjällby AIF | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Malmo FF | 3-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Vasteras SK | 0-1 L | 3-0 W |
| Degerfors | 1-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 1 L | 5 W 0 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Djurgarden
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09 | Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 03/09 | Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 31/08 | Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan |
3-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 24/08 | Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 16/08 | AIK Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-3 | 1-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 10/08 | Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 03/08 | Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan |
3-0 | 6-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 25/07 | Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 20/07 | Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-0 | 0-0 | 13 | 4 | D |
| 13/07 | Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan |
2-0 | 3-0 | 10 | 1 | W |
Elfsborg
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 06/09 | Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 29/08 | Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 23/08 | IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 14/08 | Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 08/08 | Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 26/07 | Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 19/07 | Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-0 | 1-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 12/07 | GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 05/07 | Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Djurgarden vs Elfsborg?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Djurgarden win (61%). Probabilities: Djurgarden 61%, draw 23%, Elfsborg 16%.
How many goals are expected in Djurgarden vs Elfsborg?
The model expects 2.75 goals (Djurgarden 1.89 · Elfsborg 0.86), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Djurgarden vs Elfsborg?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.