Prediction: GAIS vs Elfsborg
Expected goals: 2.22 (GAIS 1.29 · Elfsborg 0.93). The model gives 44% home, 29% draw, 26% away. Under 2.5 goals (57%) and both teams to score (50%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Recent form leaves GAIS with 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 losses over 10 games; Elfsborg has piled up 2-6-2 in the same span. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, GAIS won 3 and Elfsborg 3.
| GAIS | Draw | Elfsborg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 31% | 26% |
| Market | 45% | 28% | 27% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours GAIS (rating 1552 vs 1496).
- Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| GAIS | Elfsborg | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 0.7 | 1.2 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.4 | 0.6 / 3.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0.3 | 2.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · GAIS 3–0–3 Elfsborg
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/25 Sweden Allsvenskan | GAIS | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Elfsborg |
| 05/05/25 Sweden Allsvenskan | Elfsborg | 2-0 HT 1-0 | GAIS |
| 20/03/25 Europe Friendlies | Elfsborg | 1-2 HT 1-2 | GAIS |
| 11/08/24 Sweden Allsvenskan | Elfsborg | 2-1 HT 2-1 | GAIS |
| 19/05/24 Sweden Allsvenskan | GAIS | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Elfsborg |
| 18/02/24 Sweden Cup | Elfsborg | 2-0 HT 0-0 | GAIS |
Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sirius | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 31 | 14 | 29 |
| 2 | Hammarby | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 14 | 20 |
| 3 | BK Hacken | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 20 | 14 | 20 |
| 4 | Elfsborg | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 17 | 13 | 18 |
| 5 | Mjällby AIF | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 18 | 15 | 16 |
| 6 | Malmo FF | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 20 | 16 |
| 7 | GAIS | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 11 | 15 |
| 8 | Brommapojkarna | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 16 | 15 |
| 9 | Vasteras SK | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 23 | 15 |
| 10 | AIK | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 17 | 15 |
| 11 | Djurgarden | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 13 | 13 |
| 12 | Kalmar FF | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 15 | 13 |
| 13 | Degerfors | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 10 |
| 14 | IFK Goteborg | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 24 | 10 |
| 15 | Halmstad | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 6 |
| 16 | Orgryte IS | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 28 | 6 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | GAIS | Elfsborg |
|---|---|---|
| Halmstad | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Kalmar FF | 3-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Hammarby | 2-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Orgryte IS | 4-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Mjällby AIF | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 0 L | 0 W 3 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: GAIS (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
GAIS
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Valerenga Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 17/06 | Halmstad Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 30/05 | Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan |
1-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 20/05 | Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 09/05 | Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 03/05 | Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan |
1-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 26/04 | IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 23/04 | Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | D |
Elfsborg
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 28/06 | Fredrikstad Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 29/05 | Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan |
1-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 25/05 | BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 21/05 | Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 08/05 | Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 03/05 | AIK Sweden Allsvenskan |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 27/04 | Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 22/04 | Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in GAIS vs Elfsborg?
According to our model, the most likely result is a GAIS win (44%). Probabilities: GAIS 44%, draw 29%, Elfsborg 26%.
How many goals are expected in GAIS vs Elfsborg?
The model expects 2.22 goals (GAIS 1.29 · Elfsborg 0.93), with a 57% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in GAIS vs Elfsborg?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.