Football · Sweden Superettan · 07/09, 19:05

Prediction: Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK

Team pages: Orebro SK · Ostersunds FK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.69Total

Orebro SK1.33

Ostersunds FK1.36

1X2

35% 28% 37%

Orebro SK Draw Ostersunds FK

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Orebro SK 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DDLLDLLDWD

Ostersunds FK 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DLWWDWWDDD

Head-to-head

Orebro SK 3–1–2 Ostersunds FK (6 last)

Ostersunds FK3-2Orebro SK
Orebro SK2-0Ostersunds FK
Ostersunds FK3-1Orebro SK
Orebro SK3-1Ostersunds FK
Orebro SK4-1Ostersunds FK
Ostersunds FK1-1Orebro SK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Orebro SK 1485 · Ostersunds FK 1546

	Orebro SK	Draw	Ostersunds FK
Our model	35%	28%	37%
Market	35%	28%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.69 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ostersunds FK (rating 1485 vs 1546).
H2H favours Orebro SK: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Orebro SK	Ostersunds FK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.8	1.1 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.7	0.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 6.4	3 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.1	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.20

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 2.76
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.52 ★
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
07:42 +7’	2.55	3.20	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:52 +1’	2.61	3.49	2.48
22:16	2.64▲	3.52▲	2.50▲
09:52	2.76▲	3.52	2.39▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Orebro SK 3–1–2 Ostersunds FK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 Sweden Superettan	Ostersunds FK	3-2 HT 1-2	Orebro SK
13/09/25 Sweden Superettan	Orebro SK	2-0 HT 1-0	Ostersunds FK
24/05/25 Sweden Superettan	Ostersunds FK	3-1 HT 1-0	Orebro SK
05/03/25 Club Friendly List	Orebro SK	3-1 HT 2-0	Ostersunds FK
02/08/24 Sweden Superettan	Orebro SK	4-1 HT 1-1	Ostersunds FK
05/05/24 Sweden Superettan	Ostersunds FK	1-1 HT 1-0	Orebro SK

Standings · Sweden Superettan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	IFK Norrkoping	21	15	2	4	41	13	47
2	Falkenbergs FF	21	11	5	5	41	30	38
3	Varbergs BoIS FC	21	11	4	6	38	27	37
4	Ostersunds FK	21	9	8	4	30	23	35
5	Osters IF	21	10	3	8	32	30	33
6	Nordic United FC	21	8	8	5	32	30	32
7	Landskrona BoIS	21	8	7	6	27	22	31
8	Sandvikens IF	21	8	6	7	36	29	30
9	IK Oddevold	21	7	8	6	34	31	29
10	Helsingborg	21	7	5	9	34	41	26
11	Norrby IF	21	4	11	6	25	28	23
12	IFK Varnamo	21	6	4	11	25	38	22
13	Ljungskile	21	5	6	10	25	30	21
14	IK Brage	21	5	6	10	35	42	21
15	Orebro SK	21	4	8	9	21	33	20
16	GIF Sundsvall	21	4	1	16	15	44	13

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Orebro SK	Ostersunds FK
Norrby IF	1-3 L	2-2 D
IFK Varnamo	1-3 L	1-1 D
Ljungskile	2-3 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 3 L	0 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Ostersunds FK (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Orebro SK

DDLLDLLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/09	Helsingborg Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
25/08	Varbergs BoIS FC Sweden Superettan	2-0	2-1	3	1	W
14/08	IK Brage Sweden Superettan	1-1	3-3	10	2	D
10/08	Norrby IF Sweden Superettan	1-2	1-3	11	1	L
03/08	IFK Varnamo Sweden Superettan	1-0	1-3	6	2	L
27/07	IK Oddevold Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
19/07	Nordic United FC Sweden Superettan	0-2	0-2	2	0	L
27/06	Ljungskile Sweden Superettan	2-1	2-3	4	4	L
22/06	Sandvikens IF Sweden Superettan	1-1	1-1	9	5	D
14/06	Falkenbergs FF Sweden Superettan	1-0	1-1	11	2	D

Ostersunds FK

DLWWDWWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Landskrona BoIS Sweden Superettan	0-1	1-1	3	2	D
24/08	Ljungskile Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-0	10	2	D
16/08	IFK Varnamo Sweden Superettan	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
07/08	GIF Sundsvall Sweden Superettan	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
01/08	Osters IF Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-0	8	4	W
26/07	Norrby IF Sweden Superettan	0-1	2-2	5	4	D
18/07	Landskrona BoIS Sweden Superettan	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
27/06	GIF Sundsvall Sweden Superettan	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
21/06	IFK Norrkoping Sweden Superettan	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
14/06	Ljungskile Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-1	8	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Ostersunds FK win (37%). Probabilities: Orebro SK 35%, draw 28%, Ostersunds FK 37%.

How many goals are expected in Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK?

The model expects 2.69 goals (Orebro SK 1.33 · Ostersunds FK 1.36), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.