Football · Norway Division 1 · 26/08, 19:00

Prediction: Stabaek vs Ranheim

Team pages: Stabaek · Ranheim

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.38Total

Stabaek2.8

Ranheim1.58

1X2

62% 19% 19%

Stabaek Draw Ranheim

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Stabaek 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WDWLWWWWWW

Ranheim 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WDLWLLLLWL

Head-to-head

Stabaek 3–1–2 Ranheim (6 last)

Ranheim2-5Stabaek
Ranheim1-1Stabaek
Stabaek1-2Ranheim
Stabaek3-0Ranheim
Ranheim3-0Stabaek
Stabaek3-2Ranheim

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Stabaek 1598 · Ranheim 1451

	Stabaek	Draw	Ranheim
Our model	63%	18%	19%
Market	62%	19%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 4.38 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stabaek (rating 1598 vs 1451).
H2H favours Stabaek: 3-1-2.
High corners: 13.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Stabaek	Ranheim
Goals for / against (FT)	3 / 0.9	2.3 / 2.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.4	1 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 7.4	2.4 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0.1	2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.44

X4.75

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.85

2 (+1.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 41.85

Under 41.95

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 4.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.44	Pinn 1.45
X	4.75 → 4.75	Pinn 5.28 ★
2	4.75 → 4.75	Pinn 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
06:16 +7’	1.44	4.75	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:22	1.45	5.28	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Stabaek 3–1–2 Ranheim

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/07/26 Norway Division 1	Ranheim	2-5 HT 0-2	Stabaek
23/08/25 Norway Division 1	Ranheim	1-1 HT 0-1	Stabaek
28/06/25 Norway Division 1	Stabaek	1-2 HT 0-1	Ranheim
10/08/24 Norway Division 1	Stabaek	3-0 HT 3-0	Ranheim
22/05/24 Norway Division 1	Ranheim	3-0 HT 2-0	Stabaek
16/10/22 Norway Division 1	Stabaek	3-2 HT 1-1	Ranheim

Standings · Norway Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Stabaek	18	12	3	3	48	19	39
2	Kongsvinger	18	12	3	3	48	28	39
3	Haugesund	18	12	1	5	57	36	37
4	Stromsgodset	18	10	5	3	47	26	35
5	Hodd	18	9	3	6	32	32	30
6	Odd BK	18	8	5	5	35	28	29
7	Egersund	18	8	2	8	31	32	26
8	Bryne	18	8	2	8	25	27	26
9	Ranheim	18	7	2	9	44	45	23
10	Sogndal	18	6	3	9	32	43	21
11	Sandnes Ulf	18	6	2	10	26	34	20
12	Lyn 1896	18	6	2	10	29	38	20
13	Moss	18	5	3	10	29	41	18
14	Asane	18	5	2	11	27	40	16
15	Raufoss	18	5	1	12	22	43	16
16	Strommen	18	4	3	11	25	45	15

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Stabaek	Ranheim
Lyn 1896	4-3 W	3-2 W
Strommen	0-1 L	4-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Ranheim (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Stabaek

WDWLWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Egersund Norway Division 1	1-0	4-0	3	5	W
08/08	Lyn 1896 Norway Division 1	1-2	4-3	13	3	W
02/08	Raufoss Norway Division 1	0-0	2-0	13	1	W
27/07	Hodd Norway Division 1	3-0	6-0	5	4	W
03/07	Ranheim Norway Division 1	2-0	5-2	7	0	W
27/06	Bryne Norway Division 1	2-0	2-0	7	1	W
21/06	Strommen Norway Division 1	0-0	0-1	8	2	L
14/06	Egersund Norway Division 1	0-0	3-1	7	2	W
30/05	Moss Norway Division 1	1-2	2-2	4	5	D
25/05	Kongsvinger Norway Division 1	1-0	2-0	7	3	W

Ranheim

WDLWLLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Stromsgodset Norway Division 1	0-1	1-3	2	3	L
09/08	Strommen Norway Division 1	3-0	4-1	3	0	W
03/08	Haugesund Norway Division 1	1-2	3-4	9	3	L
26/07	Sogndal Norway Division 1	0-1	2-3	10	3	L
03/07	Stabaek Norway Division 1	0-2	2-5	3	0	L
27/06	Asane Norway Division 1	0-0	0-3	12	1	L
19/06	Lyn 1896 Norway Division 1	1-1	3-2	5	1	W
14/06	Haugesund Norway Division 1	1-2	1-4	4	3	L
07/06	Strommen Norway Division 1	1-1	2-2	7	4	D
31/05	Sandnes Ulf Norway Division 1	3-0	5-1	8	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Stabaek vs Ranheim?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Stabaek win (62%). Probabilities: Stabaek 62%, draw 19%, Ranheim 19%.

How many goals are expected in Stabaek vs Ranheim?

The model expects 4.38 goals (Stabaek 2.8 · Ranheim 1.58), with a 53% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Ranheim?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.