Football · Norway Division 1 · 30/08, 17:00

Prediction: Hodd vs Stabaek

Team pages: Hodd · Stabaek

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.82Total

Hodd1.38

Stabaek2.44

1X2

19% 21% 60%

Hodd Draw Stabaek

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Hodd 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLDWWLWWWL

Stabaek 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

DWLWWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Hodd 0–1–2 Stabaek (3 last)

Stabaek6-0Hodd
Hodd1-3Stabaek
Stabaek1-1Hodd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hodd 1522 · Stabaek 1622

	Hodd	Draw	Stabaek
Our model	20%	20%	60%
Market	19%	21%	60%

Estimated total (ours) 3.82 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stabaek (rating 1522 vs 1622).
H2H favours Stabaek: 2-1-0.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hodd	Stabaek
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 2.3	3.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.9	1.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.3	2.9 / 7.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.3	2.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.75

X4.33

21.53

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.95

2 (-1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 4.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.75 → 4.75	Pinn 5.13
X	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.68 ★
2	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.4% Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
18:03 +17’	4.75	4.33	1.53

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:52 +4’	4.83	4.51	1.56
15:01 +1’	4.86▲	4.58▲	1.55▼
20:47 +8’	4.97▲	4.63▲	1.54▼
11:58 +1’	5.13▲	4.68▲	1.51▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Hodd 0–1–2 Stabaek

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/07/26 Norway Division 1	Stabaek	6-0 HT 3-0	Hodd
25/10/25 Norway Division 1	Hodd	1-3 HT 1-2	Stabaek
31/03/25 Norway Division 1	Stabaek	1-1 HT 0-0	Hodd

Standings · Norway Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Stabaek	19	13	3	3	52	21	42
2	Kongsvinger	19	13	3	3	49	28	42
3	Haugesund	19	13	1	5	60	36	40
4	Stromsgodset	19	11	5	3	50	27	38
5	Hodd	19	9	3	7	33	35	30
6	Odd BK	19	8	5	6	35	29	29
7	Bryne	19	9	2	8	26	27	29
8	Egersund	19	8	2	9	31	35	26
9	Ranheim	19	7	2	10	46	49	23
10	Lyn 1896	19	7	2	10	31	39	23
11	Sogndal	19	6	4	9	34	45	22
12	Sandnes Ulf	19	6	2	11	26	35	20
13	Moss	19	5	4	10	31	43	19
14	Strommen	19	5	3	11	28	46	18
15	Asane	19	5	2	12	28	42	16
16	Raufoss	19	5	1	13	23	46	16

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hodd	Stabaek
Strommen	4-3 W	0-1 L
Moss	2-1 W	2-2 D
Lyn 1896	4-1 W	4-3 W
Bryne	0-1 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Hodd (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hodd

LLDWWLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/08	Stromsgodset Norway Division 1	0-0	1-3	2	4	L
16/08	Strommen Norway Division 1	3-1	4-3	6	3	W
09/08	Sandnes Ulf Norway Division 1	0-1	4-3	0	2	W
02/08	Moss Norway Division 1	2-1	2-1	7	6	W
27/07	Stabaek Norway Division 1	0-3	0-6	2	4	L
04/07	Stromsgodset Norway Division 1	3-2	4-3	1	7	W
27/06	Lyn 1896 Norway Division 1	2-1	4-1	2	5	W
21/06	Odd BK Norway Division 1	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
14/06	Kongsvinger Norway Division 1	1-0	1-2	7	4	L
31/05	Bryne Norway Division 1	0-0	0-1	4	5	L

Stabaek

DWLWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/08	Ranheim Norway Division 1	2-2	4-2	8	2	W
16/08	Egersund Norway Division 1	1-0	4-0	3	5	W
08/08	Lyn 1896 Norway Division 1	1-2	4-3	13	3	W
02/08	Raufoss Norway Division 1	0-0	2-0	13	1	W
27/07	Hodd Norway Division 1	3-0	6-0	5	4	W
03/07	Ranheim Norway Division 1	2-0	5-2	7	0	W
27/06	Bryne Norway Division 1	2-0	2-0	7	1	W
21/06	Strommen Norway Division 1	0-0	0-1	8	2	L
14/06	Egersund Norway Division 1	0-0	3-1	7	2	W
30/05	Moss Norway Division 1	1-2	2-2	4	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hodd vs Stabaek?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Stabaek win (60%). Probabilities: Hodd 19%, draw 21%, Stabaek 60%.

How many goals are expected in Hodd vs Stabaek?

The model expects 3.82 goals (Hodd 1.38 · Stabaek 2.44), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Hodd vs Stabaek?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.