Football · Norway Division 1 · 05/09, 20:00

Prediction: Stabaek vs Moss

Team pages: Stabaek · Moss

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.12Total

Stabaek2.8

Moss1.32

1X2

68% 17% 15%

Stabaek Draw Moss

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Stabaek 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWWWWWWL

Moss 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLDLDL

Head-to-head

Stabaek 1–3–2 Moss (6 last)

Moss2-2Stabaek
Stabaek2-0Moss
Stabaek3-3Moss
Moss4-2Stabaek
Stabaek1-4Moss
Moss3-3Stabaek

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stabaek (rating 1608 vs 1441).
H2H favours Moss: 2-3-1.
High corners: 13.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Stabaek	Moss
Goals for / against (FT)	3.1 / 1.1	1.6 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.4	0.7 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 8.2	2.1 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0.1	3.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 41.98

Under 41.81

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 4.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 11:31

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.34▲	Pinn 1.34
X	5.72 → 5.84▲	Pinn 5.84
2	6.44 → 6.60▲	Pinn 6.60

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
10:19 +1’	1.33	5.72	6.44
11:30 +1’	1.34▲	5.84▲	6.60▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Stabaek 1–3–2 Moss

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Norway Division 1	Moss	2-2 HT 2-1	Stabaek
29/03/26 Europe Friendlies	Stabaek	2-0 HT 1-0	Moss
02/08/25 Norway Division 1	Stabaek	3-3 HT 0-1	Moss
27/04/25 Norway Division 1	Moss	4-2 HT 3-0	Stabaek
27/07/24 Norway Division 1	Stabaek	1-4 HT 1-2	Moss
11/05/24 Norway Division 1	Moss	3-3 HT 0-1	Stabaek

Standings · Norway Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Haugesund	20	14	1	5	62	36	43
2	Kongsvinger	20	13	4	3	53	32	43
3	Stabaek	20	13	3	4	53	23	42
4	Stromsgodset	20	12	5	3	53	29	41
5	Hodd	20	10	3	7	35	36	33
6	Odd BK	20	9	5	6	40	32	32
7	Bryne	20	9	2	9	26	29	29
8	Egersund	20	8	3	9	33	37	27
9	Lyn 1896	20	7	3	10	35	43	24
10	Ranheim	20	7	2	11	49	54	23
11	Sandnes Ulf	20	7	2	11	29	35	23
12	Sogndal	20	6	4	10	36	48	22
13	Strommen	20	6	3	11	30	47	21
14	Moss	20	5	4	11	32	45	19
15	Asane	20	5	3	12	30	44	17
16	Raufoss	20	5	1	14	23	49	16

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Stabaek	Moss
Hodd	1-2 L	1-2 L
Egersund	4-0 W	0-3 L
Raufoss	2-0 W	1-2 L
Bryne	2-0 W	1-2 L
Strommen	0-1 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Stabaek (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Stabaek

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Hodd Norway Division 1	0-0	1-2	11	2	L
26/08	Ranheim Norway Division 1	2-2	4-2	8	2	W
16/08	Egersund Norway Division 1	1-0	4-0	3	5	W
08/08	Lyn 1896 Norway Division 1	1-2	4-3	13	3	W
02/08	Raufoss Norway Division 1	0-0	2-0	13	1	W
27/07	Hodd Norway Division 1	3-0	6-0	5	4	W
03/07	Ranheim Norway Division 1	2-0	5-2	7	0	W
27/06	Bryne Norway Division 1	2-0	2-0	7	1	W
21/06	Strommen Norway Division 1	0-0	0-1	8	2	L
14/06	Egersund Norway Division 1	0-0	3-1	7	2	W

Moss

WLLLLLDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Strommen Norway Division 1	0-2	1-2	4	4	L
26/08	Sogndal Norway Division 1	1-1	2-2	7	2	D
15/08	Bryne Norway Division 1	0-0	1-2	1	3	L
10/08	Odd BK Norway Division 1	0-2	3-3	3	2	D
02/08	Hodd Norway Division 1	1-2	1-2	8	6	L
26/07	Raufoss Norway Division 1	1-1	1-2	12	3	L
04/07	Egersund Norway Division 1	0-2	0-3	0	2	L
27/06	Strommen Norway Division 1	1-2	2-3	4	5	L
21/06	Sandnes Ulf Norway Division 1	0-1	1-4	7	5	L
14/06	Sogndal Norway Division 1	3-2	4-2	7	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Stabaek vs Moss?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Stabaek win (68%). Probabilities: Stabaek 68%, draw 17%, Moss 15%.

How many goals are expected in Stabaek vs Moss?

The model expects 4.12 goals (Stabaek 2.8 · Moss 1.32), with a 52% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Moss?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.