Football · Norway Division 1 · 26/08, 19:00

Prediction: Asane vs Lyn 1896

Team pages: Asane · Lyn 1896

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.98Total

Asane1.83

Lyn 18962.15

1X2

32% 24% 44%

Asane Draw Lyn 1896

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Asane 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLWLWLDLLW

Lyn 1896 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLLWDWLW

Head-to-head

Asane 1–1–4 Lyn 1896 (6 last)

Lyn 18966-2Asane
Asane0-2Lyn 1896
Lyn 18962-1Asane
Asane3-2Lyn 1896
Lyn 18963-1Asane
Lyn 18962-2Asane

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Asane 1483 · Lyn 1896 1489

	Asane	Draw	Lyn 1896
Our model	33%	22%	45%
Market	31%	25%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 3.98 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Lyn 1896: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Asane	Lyn 1896
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 2.1	2.2 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.2	1.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 3.6	3.6 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0	2.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.50

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.93

2 (-0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.52.00

Under 3.51.80

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 4.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Pinn 3.01
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.88 ★
2	2.05 → 2.05	Pinn 2.12

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 6.2%

Time*	1	X	2
06:19 +2’	2.88	3.50	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:22	3.07	3.90	2.07
08:17	3.01▼	3.88▼	2.12▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Asane 1–1–4 Lyn 1896

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/07/26 Norway Division 1	Lyn 1896	6-2 HT 5-0	Asane
06/08/25 Norway Division 1	Asane	0-2 HT 0-0	Lyn 1896
29/06/25 Norway Division 1	Lyn 1896	2-1 HT 1-0	Asane
02/11/24 Norway Division 1	Asane	3-2 HT 2-1	Lyn 1896
20/07/24 Norway Division 1	Lyn 1896	3-1 HT 2-1	Asane
27/09/14 Norway Division 2 Group 3	Lyn 1896	2-2 HT 2-0	Asane

Standings · Norway Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Stabaek	18	12	3	3	48	19	39
2	Kongsvinger	18	12	3	3	48	28	39
3	Haugesund	18	12	1	5	57	36	37
4	Stromsgodset	18	10	5	3	47	26	35
5	Hodd	18	9	3	6	32	32	30
6	Odd BK	18	8	5	5	35	28	29
7	Egersund	18	8	2	8	31	32	26
8	Bryne	18	8	2	8	25	27	26
9	Ranheim	18	7	2	9	44	45	23
10	Sogndal	18	6	3	9	32	43	21
11	Sandnes Ulf	18	6	2	10	26	34	20
12	Lyn 1896	18	6	2	10	29	38	20
13	Moss	18	5	3	10	29	41	18
14	Asane	18	5	2	11	27	40	16
15	Raufoss	18	5	1	12	22	43	16
16	Strommen	18	4	3	11	25	45	15

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Asane	Lyn 1896
Odd BK	1-4 L	5-1 W
Ranheim	3-0 W	2-3 L
Bryne	0-1 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Asane (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Asane

WLWLWLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Raufoss Norway Division 1	1-1	2-1	3	3	W
09/08	Kongsvinger Norway Division 1	0-0	1-2	4	3	L
02/08	Odd BK Norway Division 1	1-4	1-4	9	2	L
26/07	Egersund Norway Division 1	2-0	3-3	2	3	D
02/07	Lyn 1896 Norway Division 1	0-5	2-6	4	2	L
27/06	Ranheim Norway Division 1	0-0	3-0	3	1	W
21/06	Bryne Norway Division 1	0-1	0-1	4	7	L
14/06	Odd BK Norway Division 1	1-1	2-1	1	5	W
31/05	Kongsvinger Norway Division 1	1-0	1-3	1	2	L
25/05	Raufoss Norway Division 1	0-0	3-0	5	1	W

Lyn 1896

WLLLLWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Odd BK Norway Division 1	4-0	5-1	6	2	W
08/08	Stabaek Norway Division 1	2-1	3-4	6	3	L
02/08	Sogndal Norway Division 1	3-0	3-2	4	2	W
25/07	Stromsgodset Norway Division 1	0-0	1-1	7	3	D
02/07	Asane Norway Division 1	5-0	6-2	5	2	W
27/06	Hodd Norway Division 1	1-2	1-4	8	5	L
19/06	Ranheim Norway Division 1	1-1	2-3	5	1	L
14/06	Bryne Norway Division 1	0-0	0-3	7	4	L
30/05	Odd BK Norway Division 1	0-1	0-3	8	2	L
25/05	Strommen Norway Division 1	1-0	1-0	2	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Asane vs Lyn 1896?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Lyn 1896 win (44%). Probabilities: Asane 32%, draw 24%, Lyn 1896 44%.

How many goals are expected in Asane vs Lyn 1896?

The model expects 3.98 goals (Asane 1.83 · Lyn 1896 2.15), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Asane vs Lyn 1896?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.