Football · Norway Division 1 · 30/08, 17:00

Prediction: Kongsvinger vs Lyn 1896

Team pages: Kongsvinger · Lyn 1896

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.41Total

Kongsvinger2.79

Lyn 18961.62

1X2

61% 19% 20%

Kongsvinger Draw Lyn 1896

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Kongsvinger 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWDLWWLWWW

Lyn 1896 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLLLWDWLWW

Head-to-head

Kongsvinger 4–2–0 Lyn 1896 (6 last)

Lyn 18960-3Kongsvinger
Kongsvinger2-1Lyn 1896
Lyn 18960-1Kongsvinger
Kongsvinger2-1Lyn 1896
Lyn 18961-1Kongsvinger
Kongsvinger1-1Lyn 1896

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kongsvinger 1611 · Lyn 1896 1494

	Kongsvinger	Draw	Lyn 1896
Our model	62%	18%	20%
Market	61%	20%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 4.41 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kongsvinger (rating 1611 vs 1494).
H2H favours Kongsvinger: 4-2-0.
High corners: 13 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kongsvinger	Lyn 1896
Goals for / against (FT)	2.9 / 1.8	2.3 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.8	1.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6.8	3.7 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.50

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.00

2 (+1.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 41.82

Under 41.98

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 4.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Pinn 1.52
X	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 5.05 ★
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.9% Pinnacle margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
18:16 +3’	1.50	4.50	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:52 +4’	1.50	5.05	4.81
22:43	1.53▲	4.97▼	4.68▼
15:01 +1’	1.52▼	5.03▲	4.70▲
18:17 +3’	1.53▲	5.01▼	4.63▼
20:47 +8’	1.53	5.04▲	4.64▲
11:58	1.52▼	5.05▲	4.64

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 4

Go premium to see every market's movement

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Kongsvinger 4–2–0 Lyn 1896

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Norway Division 1	Lyn 1896	0-3 HT 0-2	Kongsvinger
07/03/26 Europe Friendlies	Kongsvinger	2-1 HT 1-1	Lyn 1896
25/10/25 Norway Division 1	Lyn 1896	0-1 HT 0-0	Kongsvinger
24/05/25 Norway Division 1	Kongsvinger	2-1 HT 0-0	Lyn 1896
17/11/24 Norway Division 1 Play-Offs	Lyn 1896	1-1 HT 1-0	Kongsvinger
11/08/24 Norway Division 1	Kongsvinger	1-1 HT 0-1	Lyn 1896

Standings · Norway Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Stabaek	19	13	3	3	52	21	42
2	Kongsvinger	19	13	3	3	49	28	42
3	Haugesund	19	13	1	5	60	36	40
4	Stromsgodset	19	11	5	3	50	27	38
5	Hodd	19	9	3	7	33	35	30
6	Odd BK	19	8	5	6	35	29	29
7	Bryne	19	9	2	8	26	27	29
8	Egersund	19	8	2	9	31	35	26
9	Ranheim	19	7	2	10	46	49	23
10	Lyn 1896	19	7	2	10	31	39	23
11	Sogndal	19	6	4	9	34	45	22
12	Sandnes Ulf	19	6	2	11	26	35	20
13	Moss	19	5	4	10	31	43	19
14	Strommen	19	5	3	11	28	46	18
15	Asane	19	5	2	12	28	42	16
16	Raufoss	19	5	1	13	23	46	16

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kongsvinger	Lyn 1896
Odd BK	1-0 W	5-1 W
Asane	2-1 W	2-1 W
Sogndal	5-1 W	3-2 W
Stromsgodset	4-4 D	1-1 D
Hodd	2-1 W	1-4 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Kongsvinger (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kongsvinger

WWDLWWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/08	Odd BK Norway Division 1	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
16/08	Haugesund Norway Division 1	1-0	3-2	6	5	W
09/08	Asane Norway Division 1	0-0	2-1	11	3	W
02/08	Strommen Norway Division 1	0-0	1-3	7	3	L
26/07	Sandnes Ulf Norway Division 1	3-0	6-1	3	2	W
03/07	Sogndal Norway Division 1	4-1	5-1	4	1	W
27/06	Haugesund Norway Division 1	2-3	2-4	6	4	L
21/06	Stromsgodset Norway Division 1	1-2	4-4	9	2	D
14/06	Hodd Norway Division 1	0-1	2-1	8	4	W
31/05	Asane Norway Division 1	0-1	3-1	10	2	W

Lyn 1896

LLLLWDWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/08	Asane Norway Division 1	2-0	2-1	6	5	W
15/08	Odd BK Norway Division 1	4-0	5-1	6	2	W
08/08	Stabaek Norway Division 1	2-1	3-4	6	3	L
02/08	Sogndal Norway Division 1	3-0	3-2	4	2	W
25/07	Stromsgodset Norway Division 1	0-0	1-1	7	3	D
02/07	Asane Norway Division 1	5-0	6-2	5	2	W
27/06	Hodd Norway Division 1	1-2	1-4	8	5	L
19/06	Ranheim Norway Division 1	1-1	2-3	5	1	L
14/06	Bryne Norway Division 1	0-0	0-3	7	4	L
30/05	Odd BK Norway Division 1	0-1	0-3	8	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kongsvinger vs Lyn 1896?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Kongsvinger win (61%). Probabilities: Kongsvinger 61%, draw 19%, Lyn 1896 20%.

How many goals are expected in Kongsvinger vs Lyn 1896?

The model expects 4.41 goals (Kongsvinger 2.79 · Lyn 1896 1.62), with a 54% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Kongsvinger vs Lyn 1896?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.