Football · Norway Division 1 · 26/08, 19:00

Prediction: Stromsgodset vs Hodd

Team pages: Stromsgodset · Hodd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.3Total

Stromsgodset3.04

Hodd1.27

1X2

72% 17% 12%

Stromsgodset Draw Hodd

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

3-1

Recent form · 10 last

Stromsgodset 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDDLDWLW

Hodd 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLLDWWLWWW

Head-to-head

Stromsgodset 0–1 Hodd (1 last)

Hodd4-3Stromsgodset

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Stromsgodset 1540 · Hodd 1537

	Stromsgodset	Draw	Hodd
Our model	72%	15%	12%
Market	71%	18%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 4.3 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Stromsgodset	Hodd
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 1.5	2.2 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.7	1.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 8.3	1.6 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0	4.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.25

X5.00

28.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.88

2 (+1.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.80

Under 3.752.00

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 4.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.25	Bet365 1.25
X	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 6.58 ★
2	8.00 → 8.00	Pinn 8.07

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.5% Pinnacle margin 7.6%

Time*	1	X	2
06:09 +12’	1.25	5.00	8.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:21 +1’	1.25	6.58	8.07

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Stromsgodset 0–0–1 Hodd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/07/26 Norway Division 1	Hodd	4-3 HT 3-2	Stromsgodset

Standings · Norway Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Stabaek	18	12	3	3	48	19	39
2	Kongsvinger	18	12	3	3	48	28	39
3	Haugesund	18	12	1	5	57	36	37
4	Stromsgodset	18	10	5	3	47	26	35
5	Hodd	18	9	3	6	32	32	30
6	Odd BK	18	8	5	5	35	28	29
7	Egersund	18	8	2	8	31	32	26
8	Bryne	18	8	2	8	25	27	26
9	Ranheim	18	7	2	9	44	45	23
10	Sogndal	18	6	3	9	32	43	21
11	Sandnes Ulf	18	6	2	10	26	34	20
12	Lyn 1896	18	6	2	10	29	38	20
13	Moss	18	5	3	10	29	41	18
14	Asane	18	5	2	11	27	40	16
15	Raufoss	18	5	1	12	22	43	16
16	Strommen	18	4	3	11	25	45	15

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Stromsgodset	Hodd
Egersund	0-2 L	3-1 W
Bryne	2-0 W	0-1 L
Lyn 1896	1-1 D	4-1 W
Odd BK	2-2 D	0-0 D
Kongsvinger	4-4 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Stromsgodset

WWWDDLDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Ranheim Norway Division 1	1-0	3-1	13	3	W
09/08	Egersund Norway Division 1	0-1	0-2	9	3	L
01/08	Bryne Norway Division 1	0-0	2-0	2	1	W
25/07	Lyn 1896 Norway Division 1	0-0	1-1	12	3	D
04/07	Hodd Norway Division 1	2-3	3-4	9	7	L
27/06	Odd BK Norway Division 1	1-1	2-2	11	5	D
21/06	Kongsvinger Norway Division 1	2-1	4-4	6	2	D
14/06	Raufoss Norway Division 1	2-1	6-1	11	1	W
31/05	Egersund Norway Division 1	2-0	5-0	7	1	W
25/05	Bryne Norway Division 1	0-0	1-0	3	3	W

Hodd

WLLDWWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Strommen Norway Division 1	3-1	4-3	6	3	W
09/08	Sandnes Ulf Norway Division 1	0-1	4-3	0	2	W
02/08	Moss Norway Division 1	2-1	2-1	7	6	W
27/07	Stabaek Norway Division 1	0-3	0-6	2	4	L
04/07	Stromsgodset Norway Division 1	3-2	4-3	1	7	W
27/06	Lyn 1896 Norway Division 1	2-1	4-1	2	5	W
21/06	Odd BK Norway Division 1	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
14/06	Kongsvinger Norway Division 1	1-0	1-2	7	4	L
31/05	Bryne Norway Division 1	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
25/05	Egersund Norway Division 1	2-0	3-1	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Stromsgodset vs Hodd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Stromsgodset win (72%). Probabilities: Stromsgodset 72%, draw 17%, Hodd 12%.

How many goals are expected in Stromsgodset vs Hodd?

The model expects 4.3 goals (Stromsgodset 3.04 · Hodd 1.27), with a 55% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Hodd?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.