Football · Norway Division 1 · 26/08, 19:00

Prediction: Moss vs Sogndal

Team pages: Moss · Sogndal

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.2Total

Moss2.17

Sogndal2.02

1X2

41% 23% 36%

Moss Draw Sogndal

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

2-2

Recent form · 10 last

Moss 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LDWLLLLLDL

Sogndal 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WLLWLWLLWW

Head-to-head

Moss 3–3 Sogndal (6 last)

Sogndal2-4Moss
Sogndal3-1Moss
Moss3-1Sogndal
Moss3-0Sogndal
Sogndal1-0Moss
Sogndal2-1Moss

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Moss 1421 · Sogndal 1502

	Moss	Draw	Sogndal
Our model	42%	21%	36%
Market	41%	24%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 4.2 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 82%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sogndal (rating 1421 vs 1502).
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Moss	Sogndal
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.6	2.6 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.3	1.4 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	50/0/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6	2.3 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	3.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.70

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.95

Under 3.751.85

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 4.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.44
X	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 4.11 ★
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 6.3%

Time*	1	X	2
06:11 +11’	2.20	3.70	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:21	2.44	4.11	2.44

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Moss 3–0–3 Sogndal

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/06/26 Norway Division 1	Sogndal	2-4 HT 2-3	Moss
23/08/25 Norway Division 1	Sogndal	3-1 HT 3-0	Moss
30/07/25 Norway Division 1	Moss	3-1 HT 2-0	Sogndal
19/08/24 Norway Division 1	Moss	3-0 HT 1-0	Sogndal
20/04/24 Norway Division 1	Sogndal	1-0 HT 0-0	Moss
07/10/23 Norway Division 1	Sogndal	2-1 HT 0-0	Moss

Standings · Norway Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Stabaek	18	12	3	3	48	19	39
2	Kongsvinger	18	12	3	3	48	28	39
3	Haugesund	18	12	1	5	57	36	37
4	Stromsgodset	18	10	5	3	47	26	35
5	Hodd	18	9	3	6	32	32	30
6	Odd BK	18	8	5	5	35	28	29
7	Egersund	18	8	2	8	31	32	26
8	Bryne	18	8	2	8	25	27	26
9	Ranheim	18	7	2	9	44	45	23
10	Sogndal	18	6	3	9	32	43	21
11	Sandnes Ulf	18	6	2	10	26	34	20
12	Lyn 1896	18	6	2	10	29	38	20
13	Moss	18	5	3	10	29	41	18
14	Asane	18	5	2	11	27	40	16
15	Raufoss	18	5	1	12	22	43	16
16	Strommen	18	4	3	11	25	45	15

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Moss	Sogndal
Bryne	1-2 L	0-2 L
Raufoss	1-2 L	1-3 L
Egersund	0-3 L	4-2 W
Strommen	2-3 L	3-2 W
Sandnes Ulf	1-4 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 5 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sogndal (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Moss

LDWLLLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Bryne Norway Division 1	0-0	1-2	1	3	L
10/08	Odd BK Norway Division 1	0-2	3-3	3	2	D
02/08	Hodd Norway Division 1	1-2	1-2	8	6	L
26/07	Raufoss Norway Division 1	1-1	1-2	12	3	L
04/07	Egersund Norway Division 1	0-2	0-3	0	2	L
27/06	Strommen Norway Division 1	1-2	2-3	4	5	L
21/06	Sandnes Ulf Norway Division 1	0-1	1-4	7	5	L
14/06	Sogndal Norway Division 1	3-2	4-2	7	3	W
30/05	Stabaek Norway Division 1	2-1	2-2	7	5	D
25/05	Haugesund Norway Division 1	0-0	1-3	11	2	L

Sogndal

WLLWLWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Fjøra Norway Cup	4-0	8-0	–	–	W
16/08	Sandnes Ulf Norway Division 1	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
09/08	Bryne Norway Division 1	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
02/08	Lyn 1896 Norway Division 1	0-3	2-3	7	2	L
26/07	Ranheim Norway Division 1	1-0	3-2	7	3	W
03/07	Kongsvinger Norway Division 1	1-4	1-5	10	1	L
27/06	Egersund Norway Division 1	3-1	4-2	4	5	W
21/06	Raufoss Norway Division 1	1-2	1-3	6	2	L
14/06	Moss Norway Division 1	2-3	2-4	7	3	L
31/05	Strommen Norway Division 1	1-0	3-2	1	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Moss vs Sogndal?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Moss win (41%). Probabilities: Moss 41%, draw 23%, Sogndal 36%.

How many goals are expected in Moss vs Sogndal?

The model expects 4.2 goals (Moss 2.17 · Sogndal 2.02), with a 52% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Moss vs Sogndal?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-2.