Football · Norway Division 1 · 30/08, 17:00

Prediction: Moss vs Strommen

Team pages: Moss · Strommen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.51Total

Moss1.9

Strommen1.61

1X2

44% 24% 32%

Moss Draw Strommen

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Moss 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DWLLLLLDLD

Strommen 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLWWLDWLLW

Head-to-head

Moss 4–2 Strommen (6 last)

Strommen3-2Moss
Moss2-0Strommen
Strommen1-3Moss
Moss2-1Strommen
Strommen0-1Moss
Strommen2-0Moss

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Moss 1468 · Strommen 1483

	Moss	Draw	Strommen
Our model	44%	24%	32%
Market	44%	25%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.51 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Moss: 4-0-2.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Moss	Strommen
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2.5	1.6 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1.4	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.6	3.5 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	2.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.70

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 09:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.10▲	Pinn 2.12
X	3.75 → 3.70▼	Pinn 3.87 ★
2	3.10 → 2.90▼	Pinn 3.02

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 9.1% Pinnacle margin 6.1%

Time*	1	X	2
18:13 +6’	2.00	3.75	3.10
09:51 +8’	2.10▲	3.70▼	2.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:52 +4’	2.04	3.91	3.13
13:52 +1’	2.11▲	3.90▼	3.01▼
15:01	2.12▲	3.87▼	3.02▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Moss 4–0–2 Strommen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/06/26 Norway Division 1	Strommen	3-2 HT 2-1	Moss
31/01/26 Europe Friendlies	Moss	2-0 HT 1-0	Strommen
24/09/22 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Strommen	1-3 HT 0-3	Moss
28/05/22 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Moss	2-1 HT 0-1	Strommen
12/02/22 Europe Friendlies	Strommen	0-1 HT 0-0	Moss
03/06/21 Europe Friendlies	Strommen	2-0 HT 1-0	Moss

Standings · Norway Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Stabaek	19	13	3	3	52	21	42
2	Kongsvinger	19	13	3	3	49	28	42
3	Haugesund	19	13	1	5	60	36	40
4	Stromsgodset	19	11	5	3	50	27	38
5	Hodd	19	9	3	7	33	35	30
6	Odd BK	19	8	5	6	35	29	29
7	Bryne	19	9	2	8	26	27	29
8	Egersund	19	8	2	9	31	35	26
9	Ranheim	19	7	2	10	46	49	23
10	Lyn 1896	19	7	2	10	31	39	23
11	Sogndal	19	6	4	9	34	45	22
12	Sandnes Ulf	19	6	2	11	26	35	20
13	Moss	19	5	4	10	31	43	19
14	Strommen	19	5	3	11	28	46	18
15	Asane	19	5	2	12	28	42	16
16	Raufoss	19	5	1	13	23	46	16

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Moss	Strommen
Odd BK	3-3 D	0-0 D
Hodd	1-2 L	3-4 L
Raufoss	1-2 L	3-1 W
Sandnes Ulf	1-4 L	0-2 L
Stabaek	2-2 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Strommen (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Moss

DWLLLLLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/08	Sogndal Norway Division 1	1-1	2-2	7	2	D
15/08	Bryne Norway Division 1	0-0	1-2	1	3	L
10/08	Odd BK Norway Division 1	0-2	3-3	3	2	D
02/08	Hodd Norway Division 1	1-2	1-2	8	6	L
26/07	Raufoss Norway Division 1	1-1	1-2	12	3	L
04/07	Egersund Norway Division 1	0-2	0-3	0	2	L
27/06	Strommen Norway Division 1	1-2	2-3	4	5	L
21/06	Sandnes Ulf Norway Division 1	0-1	1-4	7	5	L
14/06	Sogndal Norway Division 1	3-2	4-2	7	3	W
30/05	Stabaek Norway Division 1	2-1	2-2	7	5	D

Strommen

DLWWLDWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/08	Raufoss Norway Division 1	2-0	3-1	11	1	W
16/08	Hodd Norway Division 1	1-3	3-4	5	3	L
09/08	Ranheim Norway Division 1	0-3	1-4	4	0	L
02/08	Kongsvinger Norway Division 1	0-0	3-1	2	3	W
26/07	Odd BK Norway Division 1	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
03/07	Raufoss Norway Division 1	0-0	0-1	10	4	L
27/06	Moss Norway Division 1	2-1	3-2	4	5	W
21/06	Stabaek Norway Division 1	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
14/06	Sandnes Ulf Norway Division 1	0-0	0-2	2	0	L
07/06	Ranheim Norway Division 1	1-1	2-2	4	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Moss vs Strommen?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Moss win (44%). Probabilities: Moss 44%, draw 24%, Strommen 32%.

How many goals are expected in Moss vs Strommen?

The model expects 3.51 goals (Moss 1.9 · Strommen 1.61), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Moss vs Strommen?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.