Football · Norway Toppserien Women · 20/09, 15:00

Prediction: Fortuna Aalesund (W) vs Molde FK (W)

Team pages: Fortuna Aalesund (W) · Molde FK (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.49Total

Fortuna Aalesund (W)2.33

Molde FK (W)1.16

1X2

63% 20% 17%

Fortuna Aalesund (W) Draw Molde FK (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Fortuna Aalesund (W) 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWWLWWWWWW

Molde FK (W) 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLLDWDWL

Head-to-head

Fortuna Aalesund (W) 4–2–0 Molde FK (W) (6 last)

Fortuna Aalesund (W)5-1Molde FK (W)
Molde FK (W)2-3Fortuna Aalesund (W)
Molde FK (W)0-3Fortuna Aalesund (W)
Fortuna Aalesund (W)2-2Molde FK (W)
Molde FK (W)0-8Fortuna Aalesund (W)
Fortuna Aalesund (W)1-1Molde FK (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fortuna Aalesund (W) 1615 · Molde FK (W) 1497

	Fortuna Aalesund (W)	Draw	Molde FK (W)
Our model	63%	20%	17%
Market	63%	20%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 3.49 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fortuna Aalesund (W) (rating 1615 vs 1497).
H2H favours Fortuna Aalesund (W): 4-2-0.
High corners: 14.1 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fortuna Aalesund (W)	Molde FK (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.8 / 0.7	1.8 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.1	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/30/0%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.2 / 9.3	1.8 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0	1.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.42

X4.50

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.88

2 (+1.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.42▲	Pinn 1.43
X	4.75 → 4.50▼	Pinn 5.48 ★
2	6.50 → 5.25▼	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
19:03 +11’	1.33	4.75	6.50
15:07 +35’	1.42▲	4.50▼	5.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:24 +247’	1.40	5.63	4.94
00:00 +76’	1.42▲	5.54▼	4.80▼
04:20 +181’	1.43▲	5.48▼	4.70▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Fortuna Aalesund (W) 4–2–0 Molde FK (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/05/26 Norway Cup Women	Fortuna Aalesund (W)	5-1 HT 1-0	Molde FK (W)
02/05/26 Norway Toppserien Women	Molde FK (W)	2-3 HT 1-1	Fortuna Aalesund (W)
16/08/25 Norway Division 1 Women	Molde FK (W)	0-3 HT 0-2	Fortuna Aalesund (W)
22/06/25 Norway Division 1 Women	Fortuna Aalesund (W)	2-2 HT 0-2	Molde FK (W)
07/05/25 Norway Cup Women	Molde FK (W)	0-8 HT 0-4	Fortuna Aalesund (W)
31/05/23 Norway Cup Women	Fortuna Aalesund (W)	1-1 HT 0-1	Molde FK (W)

Standings · Norway Toppserien Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SK Brann (W)	16	14	2	0	52	4	44
2	Fortuna Aalesund (W)	15	12	1	2	37	14	37
3	Rosenborg (W)	16	11	3	2	31	18	36
4	Valerenga (W)	16	10	1	5	41	24	31
5	Stabaek (W)	16	7	3	6	33	19	24
6	Lyn (W)	16	6	4	6	29	22	22
7	Molde FK (W)	15	5	3	7	22	25	18
8	LSK Kvinner (W)	16	4	3	9	22	31	15
9	Haugesund (W)	16	4	3	9	20	39	15
10	Honefoss (W)	16	3	3	10	12	29	12
11	Roa (W)	16	2	5	9	15	34	11
12	Bodo/Glimt (W)	16	0	3	13	9	64	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fortuna Aalesund (W)	Molde FK (W)
Bodo/Glimt (W)	2-0 W	2-1 W
Honefoss (W)	1-0 W	0-1 L
Haugesund (W)	5-1 W	3-3 D
LSK Kvinner (W)	3-0 W	1-0 W
Roa (W)	3-2 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 0 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Fortuna Aalesund (W) (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fortuna Aalesund (W)

WWWLWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Bodo/Glimt (W) Norway Toppserien Women	2-0	2-0	10	2	W
31/08	Honefoss (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
22/08	Haugesund (W) Norway Toppserien Women	3-0	5-1	15	1	W
15/08	Lyn (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	2-1	10	4	W
20/06	Bodo/Glimt (W) Norway Toppserien Women	5-1	8-1	14	1	W
13/06	LSK Kvinner (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	3-0	7	0	W
30/05	SK Brann (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
26/05	Roa (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	3-2	10	0	W
15/05	Honefoss (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	2-0	10	2	W
08/05	Lyn (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	1-0	7	4	W

Molde FK (W)

LWWLLDWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Honefoss (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
22/08	LSK Kvinner (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	1-0	8	5	W
15/08	Roa (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	1-1	9	0	D
08/08	Bodo/Glimt (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	2-1	7	2	W
20/06	Haugesund (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	3-3	4	2	D
13/06	Stabaek (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-2	1-2	5	3	L
26/05	Rosenborg (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-1	2-3	2	0	L
15/05	Valerenga (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	2-1	2	3	W
08/05	Roa (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	4-0	3	1	W
02/05	Fortuna Aalesund (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-1	2-3	2	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fortuna Aalesund (W) vs Molde FK (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Fortuna Aalesund (W) win (63%). Probabilities: Fortuna Aalesund (W) 63%, draw 20%, Molde FK (W) 17%.

How many goals are expected in Fortuna Aalesund (W) vs Molde FK (W)?

The model expects 3.49 goals (Fortuna Aalesund (W) 2.33 · Molde FK (W) 1.16), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Fortuna Aalesund (W) vs Molde FK (W)?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.