Football · Norway Toppserien Women · 31/10, 14:00

Prediction: Stabaek (W) vs Fortuna Aalesund (W)

Team pages: Stabaek (W) · Fortuna Aalesund (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.22Total

Stabaek (W)1.07

Fortuna Aalesund (W)2.14

1X2

17% 22% 61%

Stabaek (W) Draw Fortuna Aalesund (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Stabaek (W) 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLDWWLLWLL

Fortuna Aalesund (W) 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWDWWW

Head-to-head

Stabaek (W) 0–2–0 Fortuna Aalesund (W) (2 last)

Stabaek (W)1-1Fortuna Aalesund (W)
Fortuna Aalesund (W)2-2Stabaek (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Stabaek (W) 1504 · Fortuna Aalesund (W) 1618

	Stabaek (W)	Draw	Fortuna Aalesund (W)
Our model	17%	22%	61%
Market	17%	22%	61%

Estimated total (ours) 3.22 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fortuna Aalesund (W) (rating 1504 vs 1618).
High corners: 15 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Stabaek (W)	Fortuna Aalesund (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.3	2.9 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.5	1.4 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 6.4	3.8 / 8.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0	2.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

15.25

X4.10

21.48

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.93

2 (-1)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
X	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.31 ★
2	1.48 → 1.48	Pinn 1.51

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11% Pinnacle margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
17:10 +12’	5.25	4.10	1.48

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:14 +64’	4.99	4.13	1.55
16:12 +69’	5.21▲	4.31▲	1.51▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Stabaek (W) 0–2–0 Fortuna Aalesund (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/06/26 Norway Cup Women	Stabaek (W)	1-1 HT 1-1	Fortuna Aalesund (W)
28/03/26 Norway Toppserien Women	Fortuna Aalesund (W)	2-2 HT 1-1	Stabaek (W)

Standings · Norway Toppserien Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SK Brann (W)	20	16	3	1	56	7	51
2	Fortuna Aalesund (W)	20	16	2	2	48	17	50
3	Rosenborg (W)	20	12	6	2	36	21	42
4	Valerenga (W)	20	12	2	6	49	26	38
5	Lyn (W)	20	9	5	6	40	28	32
6	Stabaek (W)	20	8	3	9	37	23	27
7	Haugesund (W)	20	7	3	10	29	45	24
8	Honefoss (W)	20	5	4	11	17	32	19
9	Molde FK (W)	20	5	3	12	24	40	18
10	Roa (W)	20	4	5	11	20	39	17
11	LSK Kvinner (W)	20	4	3	13	24	41	15
12	Bodo/Glimt (W)	20	1	3	16	13	74	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Stabaek (W)	Fortuna Aalesund (W)
Roa (W)	1-2 L	1-0 W
Honefoss (W)	0-1 L	1-0 W
Molde FK (W)	3-0 W	4-1 W
SK Brann (W)	0-1 L	2-1 W
Rosenborg (W)	2-4 L	1-1 D
LSK Kvinner (W)	5-1 W	3-0 W
Bodo/Glimt (W)	7-1 W	2-0 W
Haugesund (W)	1-1 D	5-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	7 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Fortuna Aalesund (W) (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Stabaek (W)

WLDWWLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Roa (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	1-2	10	3	L
17/10	Honefoss (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	0-1	10	3	L
04/10	Molde FK (W) Norway Toppserien Women	2-0	3-0	3	2	W
26/09	SK Brann (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	0-1	0	0	L
17/09	Rosenborg (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	2-4	6	3	L
13/09	LSK Kvinner (W) Norway Toppserien Women	2-1	5-1	6	2	W
22/08	Bodo/Glimt (W) Norway Toppserien Women	6-0	7-1	5	3	W
15/08	Haugesund (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	1-1	6	1	D
20/06	Roa (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	0-1	12	1	L
13/06	Molde FK (W) Norway Toppserien Women	2-0	2-1	6	3	W

Fortuna Aalesund (W)

WWWWWWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	LSK Kvinner (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	3-0	9	2	W
16/10	Roa (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
04/10	SK Brann (W) Norway Toppserien Women	2-0	2-1	2	4	W
26/09	Rosenborg (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
20/09	Molde FK (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	4-1	11	1	W
11/09	Bodo/Glimt (W) Norway Toppserien Women	2-0	2-0	10	2	W
31/08	Honefoss (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
22/08	Haugesund (W) Norway Toppserien Women	3-0	5-1	15	1	W
15/08	Lyn (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	2-1	10	4	W
20/06	Bodo/Glimt (W) Norway Toppserien Women	5-1	8-1	14	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Stabaek (W) vs Fortuna Aalesund (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Fortuna Aalesund (W) win (61%). Probabilities: Stabaek (W) 17%, draw 22%, Fortuna Aalesund (W) 61%.

How many goals are expected in Stabaek (W) vs Fortuna Aalesund (W)?

The model expects 3.22 goals (Stabaek (W) 1.07 · Fortuna Aalesund (W) 2.14), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Stabaek (W) vs Fortuna Aalesund (W)?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.