Football · Norway Toppserien Women · 07/11, 13:00

Prediction: Fortuna Aalesund (W) vs Valerenga (W)

Team pages: Fortuna Aalesund (W) · Valerenga (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.12Total

Fortuna Aalesund (W)1.49

Valerenga (W)1.63

1X2

34% 26% 40%

Fortuna Aalesund (W) Draw Valerenga (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Fortuna Aalesund (W) 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

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Valerenga (W) 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Fortuna Aalesund (W) 2–2 Valerenga (W) (4 last)

Valerenga (W)1-2Fortuna Aalesund (W)
Valerenga (W)0-2Fortuna Aalesund (W)
Valerenga (W)5-2Fortuna Aalesund (W)
Fortuna Aalesund (W)1-3Valerenga (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fortuna Aalesund (W) 1613 · Valerenga (W) 1569

	Fortuna Aalesund (W)	Draw	Valerenga (W)
Our model	34%	26%	40%
Market	34%	26%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 3.12 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fortuna Aalesund (W) (rating 1613 vs 1569).
High corners: 13 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fortuna Aalesund (W)	Valerenga (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 0.6	2.7 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.1	1.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 7.8	2.1 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0	1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.50

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.44 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
16:02 +11’	2.63	3.50	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:43 +34’	2.79	3.55	2.25
18:09 +4’	2.37▼	3.50▼	2.44▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Fortuna Aalesund (W) 2–0–2 Valerenga (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/06/26 Norway Cup Women	Valerenga (W)	1-2 HT 1-0	Fortuna Aalesund (W)
21/03/26 Norway Toppserien Women	Valerenga (W)	0-2 HT 0-1	Fortuna Aalesund (W)
21/06/23 Norway Cup Women	Valerenga (W)	5-2 HT 4-1	Fortuna Aalesund (W)
07/08/19 Norway Cup Women	Fortuna Aalesund (W)	1-3 HT 1-1	Valerenga (W)

Standings · Norway Toppserien Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SK Brann (W)	21	17	3	1	60	8	54
2	Fortuna Aalesund (W)	21	16	2	3	48	18	50
3	Rosenborg (W)	21	13	6	2	42	21	45
4	Valerenga (W)	21	13	2	6	52	26	41
5	Lyn (W)	21	9	5	7	40	31	32
6	Stabaek (W)	21	9	3	9	38	23	30
7	Haugesund (W)	21	7	3	11	29	46	24
8	Honefoss (W)	21	6	4	11	18	32	22
9	Molde FK (W)	21	6	3	12	27	41	21
10	Roa (W)	21	4	5	12	20	45	17
11	LSK Kvinner (W)	21	4	3	14	25	45	15
12	Bodo/Glimt (W)	21	1	3	17	14	77	6

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fortuna Aalesund (W)	Valerenga (W)
LSK Kvinner (W)	3-0 W	3-0 W
Roa (W)	1-0 W	6-3 W
SK Brann (W)	2-1 W	0-1 L
Rosenborg (W)	1-1 D	1-1 D
Molde FK (W)	4-1 W	4-0 W
Bodo/Glimt (W)	2-0 W	4-1 W
Honefoss (W)	1-0 W	2-1 W
Haugesund (W)	5-1 W	2-1 W
Lyn (W)	2-1 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	8 W 1 D 0 L	7 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Valerenga (W) (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fortuna Aalesund (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Stabaek (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
24/10	LSK Kvinner (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	3-0	9	2	W
16/10	Roa (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
04/10	SK Brann (W) Norway Toppserien Women	2-0	2-1	2	4	W
26/09	Rosenborg (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
20/09	Molde FK (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	4-1	11	1	W
11/09	Bodo/Glimt (W) Norway Toppserien Women	2-0	2-0	10	2	W
31/08	Honefoss (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
22/08	Haugesund (W) Norway Toppserien Women	3-0	5-1	15	1	W
15/08	Lyn (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	2-1	10	4	W

Valerenga (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	Lyn (W) Norway Toppserien Women	3-0	3-0	6	0	W
24/10	SK Brann (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	0-1	1	0	L
17/10	LSK Kvinner (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	3-0	6	1	W
04/10	Rosenborg (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-1	1-1	6	1	D
26/09	Molde FK (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	4-0	2	1	W
17/09	Haugesund (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-1	2-1	5	1	W
11/09	Roa (W) Norway Toppserien Women	3-2	6-3	6	1	W
19/08	Honefoss (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	2-1	10	1	W
14/08	Bodo/Glimt (W) Norway Toppserien Women	2-0	4-1	6	0	W
20/06	Rosenborg (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-2	2-3	4	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fortuna Aalesund (W) vs Valerenga (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Valerenga (W) win (40%). Probabilities: Fortuna Aalesund (W) 34%, draw 26%, Valerenga (W) 40%.

How many goals are expected in Fortuna Aalesund (W) vs Valerenga (W)?

The model expects 3.12 goals (Fortuna Aalesund (W) 1.49 · Valerenga (W) 1.63), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Fortuna Aalesund (W) vs Valerenga (W)?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.