Football · Norway Toppserien Women · 07/11, 13:00

Prediction: Lyn (W) vs Stabaek (W)

Team pages: Lyn (W) · Stabaek (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.23Total

Lyn (W)1.54

Stabaek (W)1.69

1X2

34% 25% 41%

Lyn (W) Draw Stabaek (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Lyn (W) 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLWLWDWWWL

Stabaek (W) 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LDWWLLWLLW

Head-to-head

Lyn (W) 2–4 Stabaek (W) (6 last)

Stabaek (W)0-1Lyn (W)
Lyn (W)0-3Stabaek (W)
Stabaek (W)3-2Lyn (W)
Stabaek (W)4-1Lyn (W)
Lyn (W)6-0Stabaek (W)
Lyn (W)0-1Stabaek (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lyn (W) 1513 · Stabaek (W) 1515

	Lyn (W)	Draw	Stabaek (W)
Our model	34%	25%	40%
Market	34%	25%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3.23 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Stabaek (W): 4-0-2.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lyn (W)	Stabaek (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 2	2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	1.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 4.9	2.6 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.7 / 0	2.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.60

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.60▲	Bet365 2.60
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.74 ★
2	2.75 → 2.20▼	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
15:57 +16’	2.10	3.60	2.75
17:04 +12’	2.60▲	3.60	2.20▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:53 +24’	2.73	3.70	2.23
18:08 +5’	2.57▼	3.74▲	2.16▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lyn (W) 2–0–4 Stabaek (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Norway Toppserien Women	Stabaek (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	Lyn (W)
15/11/25 Norway Toppserien Women	Lyn (W)	0-3 HT 0-0	Stabaek (W)
29/07/25 Women’s Friendly	Stabaek (W)	3-2 HT 2-0	Lyn (W)
19/06/25 Norway Toppserien Women	Stabaek (W)	4-1 HT 0-0	Lyn (W)
16/04/25 Norway Toppserien Women	Lyn (W)	6-0 HT 4-0	Stabaek (W)
08/09/24 Norway Toppserien Women	Lyn (W)	0-1 HT 0-1	Stabaek (W)

Standings · Norway Toppserien Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SK Brann (W)	21	17	3	1	60	8	54
2	Fortuna Aalesund (W)	21	16	2	3	48	18	50
3	Rosenborg (W)	21	13	6	2	42	21	45
4	Valerenga (W)	21	13	2	6	52	26	41
5	Lyn (W)	21	9	5	7	40	31	32
6	Stabaek (W)	21	9	3	9	38	23	30
7	Haugesund (W)	21	7	3	11	29	46	24
8	Honefoss (W)	21	6	4	11	18	32	22
9	Molde FK (W)	21	6	3	12	27	41	21
10	Roa (W)	21	4	5	12	20	45	17
11	LSK Kvinner (W)	21	4	3	14	25	45	15
12	Bodo/Glimt (W)	21	1	3	17	14	77	6

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lyn (W)	Stabaek (W)
Molde FK (W)	2-1 W	3-0 W
Bodo/Glimt (W)	4-1 W	7-1 W
Haugesund (W)	4-3 W	1-1 D
Honefoss (W)	1-1 D	0-1 L
LSK Kvinner (W)	3-2 W	5-1 W
SK Brann (W)	0-3 L	0-1 L
Roa (W)	3-1 W	1-2 L
Rosenborg (W)	2-3 L	2-4 L
Fortuna Aalesund (W)	1-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Stabaek (W) (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lyn (W)

LLWLWDWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	Valerenga (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-3	0-3	4	0	L
24/10	Molde FK (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	2-1	10	1	W
16/10	Bodo/Glimt (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	4-1	7	1	W
04/10	Haugesund (W) Norway Toppserien Women	2-1	4-3	5	3	W
26/09	Honefoss (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	1-1	4	1	D
19/09	LSK Kvinner (W) Norway Toppserien Women	2-1	3-2	8	3	W
13/09	SK Brann (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	0-3	2	1	L
31/08	Roa (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	3-1	6	3	W
20/08	Rosenborg (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-2	2-3	3	0	L
15/08	Fortuna Aalesund (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	1-2	0	4	L

Stabaek (W)

LDWWLLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Fortuna Aalesund (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
24/10	Roa (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	1-2	10	3	L
17/10	Honefoss (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	0-1	10	3	L
04/10	Molde FK (W) Norway Toppserien Women	2-0	3-0	3	2	W
26/09	SK Brann (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	0-1	0	0	L
17/09	Rosenborg (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	2-4	6	3	L
13/09	LSK Kvinner (W) Norway Toppserien Women	2-1	5-1	6	2	W
22/08	Bodo/Glimt (W) Norway Toppserien Women	6-0	7-1	5	3	W
15/08	Haugesund (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	1-1	6	1	D
20/06	Roa (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	0-1	12	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lyn (W) vs Stabaek (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Stabaek (W) win (41%). Probabilities: Lyn (W) 34%, draw 25%, Stabaek (W) 41%.

How many goals are expected in Lyn (W) vs Stabaek (W)?

The model expects 3.23 goals (Lyn (W) 1.54 · Stabaek (W) 1.69), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Lyn (W) vs Stabaek (W)?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.