Football · Sweden Damallsvenskan · 31/07, 19:00
Prediction: Hammarby (W) vs Vaxjo (W)
Team pages: Hammarby (W) · Vaxjo (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.64Total
Hammarby (W)2.82
Vaxjo (W)0.82
1X2
Hammarby (W)
Draw
Vaxjo (W)
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Hammarby (W)
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Vaxjo (W)
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Hammarby (W)
4–1–1
Vaxjo (W)
(6 last)
- Hammarby (W)2-2Vaxjo (W)
- Vaxjo (W)0-7Hammarby (W)
- Hammarby (W)4-1Vaxjo (W)
- Vaxjo (W)1-4Hammarby (W)
- Hammarby (W)1-2Vaxjo (W)
- Vaxjo (W)0-3Hammarby (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hammarby (W) 1584 · Vaxjo (W) 1442
| Hammarby (W) | Draw | Vaxjo (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 78% | 15% | 8% |
| Market | 82% | 11% | 6% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.64 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hammarby (W) (rating 1584 vs 1442).
- H2H favours Hammarby (W): 4-1-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Hammarby (W) | Vaxjo (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.8 | 1.2 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 5.2 | 2.3 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.1 / 0 | 1.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hammarby (W) 4–1–1 Vaxjo (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/03/26 Sweden Cup Women | Hammarby (W) | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Vaxjo (W) |
| 28/09/25 Sweden Damallsvenskan | Vaxjo (W) | 0-7 HT 0-2 | Hammarby (W) |
| 23/03/25 Sweden Damallsvenskan | Hammarby (W) | 4-1 HT 3-0 | Vaxjo (W) |
| 02/11/24 Sweden Damallsvenskan | Vaxjo (W) | 1-4 HT 1-2 | Hammarby (W) |
| 08/06/24 Sweden Damallsvenskan | Hammarby (W) | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Vaxjo (W) |
| 01/09/23 Sweden Damallsvenskan | Vaxjo (W) | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Hammarby (W) |
Standings · Sweden Damallsvenskan
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hammarby (W) | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 6 | 31 |
| 2 | BK Hacken (W) | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 10 | 30 |
| 3 | Malmo FF (W) | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 9 | 21 |
| 4 | AIK (W) | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 15 | 21 |
| 5 | Vittsjö GIK (W) | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 13 | 17 |
| 6 | Eskilstuna Utd (W) | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 10 | 17 |
| 7 | Kristianstads (W) | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 23 | 15 |
| 8 | Pitea IF (W) | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 14 | 14 |
| 9 | Brommapojkarna (W) | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 15 | 22 | 12 |
| 10 | Vaxjo (W) | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 18 | 11 |
| 11 | FC Rosengård (W) | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 17 | 9 |
| 12 | IFK Norrkoping (W) | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 9 |
| 13 | Djurgardens (W) | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 20 | 8 |
| 14 | IK Uppsala (W) | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 24 | 6 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Hammarby (W) | Vaxjo (W) |
|---|---|---|
| IFK Norrkoping (W) | 4-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Pitea IF (W) | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| AIK (W) | 4-1 W | 3-3 D |
| BK Hacken (W) | 0-1 L | 2-4 L |
| Vittsjö GIK (W) | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Kristianstads (W) | 1-0 W | 0-4 L |
| Malmo FF (W) | 2-1 W | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 1 L | 0 W 2 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Hammarby (W) (7 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hammarby (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | IFK Norrkoping (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan |
3-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 14/07 | FC Nordsjaelland (W) Women’s Friendly |
0-3 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 25/06 | Pitea IF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 17/06 | AIK (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan |
3-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 13/06 | BK Hacken (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 31/05 | Vittsjö GIK (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 27/05 | Eskilstuna Utd (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 23/05 | Kristianstads (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 20/05 | Malmo FF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 16/05 | BK Hacken (W) Sweden Cup Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
Vaxjo (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Kristianstads (W) Women’s Friendly |
0-1 | 0-4 | – | – | L |
| 24/06 | Brommapojkarna (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 18/06 | IFK Norrkoping (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 13/06 | IK Uppsala (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan |
4-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 31/05 | Malmo FF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 24/05 | Vittsjö GIK (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 20/05 | BK Hacken (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan |
1-2 | 2-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | AIK (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan |
1-2 | 3-3 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 03/05 | Pitea IF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 25/04 | Kristianstads (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 0 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hammarby (W) vs Vaxjo (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Hammarby (W) win (80%). Probabilities: Hammarby (W) 80%, draw 13%, Vaxjo (W) 7%.
How many goals are expected in Hammarby (W) vs Vaxjo (W)?
The model expects 3.64 goals (Hammarby (W) 2.82 · Vaxjo (W) 0.82), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Hammarby (W) vs Vaxjo (W)?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.