Football · Sweden Damallsvenskan · 07/08, 19:00

Prediction: Vaxjo (W) vs FC Rosengård (W)

Team pages: Vaxjo (W) · FC Rosengård (W)

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Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.17Total

Vaxjo (W)1.36

FC Rosengård (W)1.81

1X2

28% 25% 47%

Vaxjo (W) Draw FC Rosengård (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Vaxjo (W) 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDLLLWDWLL

FC Rosengård (W) 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLDWLDLWWD

Head-to-head

Vaxjo (W) 1–5 FC Rosengård (W) (6 last)

Vaxjo (W)0-3FC Rosengård (W)
FC Rosengård (W)2-3Vaxjo (W)
Vaxjo (W)0-1FC Rosengård (W)
FC Rosengård (W)2-1Vaxjo (W)
FC Rosengård (W)4-0Vaxjo (W)
Vaxjo (W)0-7FC Rosengård (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vaxjo (W) 1443 · FC Rosengård (W) 1501

	Vaxjo (W)	Draw	FC Rosengård (W)
Our model	28%	25%	47%
Market	28%	24%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 3.17 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Rosengård (W) (rating 1443 vs 1501).
H2H favours FC Rosengård (W): 5-0-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vaxjo (W)	FC Rosengård (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.4	1.6 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.1	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.1	2.4 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.3 / 0	1.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.20

X3.70

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 06:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 3.20▲	Pinn 3.42 ★
X	3.50 → 3.70▲	Pinn 3.81
2	2.15 → 1.90▼	Bet365 1.90

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 10.9% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
18:40 +34’	2.75	3.50	2.15
21:37 +3’	3.25▲	3.60▲	1.90▼
06:21 +12’	3.20▼	3.70▲	1.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:34 +5’	3.24	3.72	1.84
05:12 +1’	3.21▼	3.71▼	1.85▲
07:46	3.28▲	3.81▲	1.88▲
08:59 +1’	3.42▲	3.81	1.83▼
16:12 +1’	3.42	3.81	1.86▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vaxjo (W) 1–0–5 FC Rosengård (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/03/26 Sweden Cup Women	Vaxjo (W)	0-3 HT 0-1	FC Rosengård (W)
22/08/25 Sweden Damallsvenskan	FC Rosengård (W)	2-3 HT 0-0	Vaxjo (W)
29/03/25 Sweden Damallsvenskan	Vaxjo (W)	0-1 HT 0-1	FC Rosengård (W)
17/03/25 Sweden Cup Women	FC Rosengård (W)	2-1 HT 1-0	Vaxjo (W)
19/09/24 Sweden Damallsvenskan	FC Rosengård (W)	4-0 HT 2-0	Vaxjo (W)
12/06/24 Sweden Damallsvenskan	Vaxjo (W)	0-7 HT 0-4	FC Rosengård (W)

Standings · Sweden Damallsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hammarby (W)	13	11	1	1	31	6	34
2	BK Hacken (W)	12	11	0	1	32	10	33
3	Malmo FF (W)	13	6	4	3	22	9	22
4	AIK (W)	12	6	3	3	19	18	21
5	Vittsjö GIK (W)	13	5	3	5	13	14	18
6	Kristianstads (W)	12	5	3	4	21	23	18
7	Eskilstuna Utd (W)	12	5	2	5	9	16	17
8	Pitea IF (W)	12	4	3	5	12	14	15
9	Brommapojkarna (W)	12	5	0	7	17	23	15
10	IFK Norrkoping (W)	13	2	6	5	14	17	12
11	Vaxjo (W)	12	3	2	7	16	23	11
12	FC Rosengård (W)	12	2	4	6	16	18	10
13	Djurgardens (W)	12	2	2	8	7	22	8
14	IK Uppsala (W)	12	1	3	8	12	28	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vaxjo (W)	FC Rosengård (W)
Kristianstads (W)	0-4 L	2-2 D
Brommapojkarna (W)	2-1 W	1-2 L
IFK Norrkoping (W)	0-0 D	1-1 D
Malmo FF (W)	0-3 L	0-1 L
Vittsjö GIK (W)	0-2 L	1-1 D
BK Hacken (W)	2-4 L	0-2 L
Pitea IF (W)	1-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 5 L	0 W 3 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FC Rosengård (W) (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Vaxjo (W)

LDLLLWDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	Hammarby (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-3	0-5	1	0	L
25/07	Kristianstads (W) Women’s Friendly	0-1	0-4	–	–	L
24/06	Brommapojkarna (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-1	2-1	2	1	W
18/06	IFK Norrkoping (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
13/06	IK Uppsala (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	4-0	4-0	5	2	W
31/05	Malmo FF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-2	0-3	4	1	L
24/05	Vittsjö GIK (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	0-2	7	2	L
20/05	BK Hacken (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-2	2-4	2	1	L
09/05	AIK (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-2	3-3	3	2	D
03/05	Pitea IF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	1-2	4	0	L

FC Rosengård (W)

LLDWLDLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/08	Vittsjö GIK (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	1-1	4	2	D
18/07	FC Copenhagen (W) Women’s Friendly	2-1	3-2	7	0	W
24/06	Djurgardens (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	2-0	4-1	2	2	W
18/06	BK Hacken (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-1	0-2	8	0	L
13/06	IFK Norrkoping (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-1	1-1	8	2	D
31/05	Brommapojkarna (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	1-2	6	2	L
23/05	Eskilstuna Utd (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	2-0	3-0	5	3	W
15/05	Kristianstads (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-1	2-2	6	2	D
10/05	Pitea IF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-2	1-2	5	0	L
02/05	Malmo FF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	0-1	6	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vaxjo (W) vs FC Rosengård (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Rosengård (W) win (47%). Probabilities: Vaxjo (W) 28%, draw 25%, FC Rosengård (W) 47%.

How many goals are expected in Vaxjo (W) vs FC Rosengård (W)?

The model expects 3.17 goals (Vaxjo (W) 1.36 · FC Rosengård (W) 1.81), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Vaxjo (W) vs FC Rosengård (W)?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.