Football · Sweden Damallsvenskan · 05/09, 12:30

Prediction: Pitea IF (W) vs Vaxjo (W)

Team pages: Pitea IF (W) · Vaxjo (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.92Total

Pitea IF (W)1.72

Vaxjo (W)1.19

1X2

49% 25% 26%

Pitea IF (W) Draw Vaxjo (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Pitea IF (W) 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLDDLLWD

Vaxjo (W) 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLWDWLWLWL

Head-to-head

Pitea IF (W) 4–2 Vaxjo (W) (6 last)

Vaxjo (W)1-2Pitea IF (W)
Vaxjo (W)1-2Pitea IF (W)
Pitea IF (W)0-1Vaxjo (W)
Vaxjo (W)1-0Pitea IF (W)
Pitea IF (W)3-2Vaxjo (W)
Pitea IF (W)5-2Vaxjo (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pitea IF (W) 1486 · Vaxjo (W) 1448

	Pitea IF (W)	Draw	Vaxjo (W)
Our model	49%	26%	25%
Market	50%	24%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.92 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Pitea IF (W): 4-0-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pitea IF (W)	Vaxjo (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.8	1.1 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.7 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.5	3 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.1 / 0	1.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.70

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Pinn 1.90 ★
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.56

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 10%

Time*	1	X	2
15:34 +8’	1.80	3.70	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:45 +1’	1.90	3.42	3.56

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Pitea IF (W) 4–0–2 Vaxjo (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Sweden Damallsvenskan	Vaxjo (W)	1-2 HT 0-0	Pitea IF (W)
12/10/25 Sweden Damallsvenskan	Vaxjo (W)	1-2 HT 0-2	Pitea IF (W)
11/05/25 Sweden Damallsvenskan	Pitea IF (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	Vaxjo (W)
14/09/24 Sweden Damallsvenskan	Vaxjo (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Pitea IF (W)
14/04/24 Sweden Damallsvenskan	Pitea IF (W)	3-2 HT 1-2	Vaxjo (W)
17/09/23 Sweden Damallsvenskan	Pitea IF (W)	5-2 HT 2-0	Vaxjo (W)

Standings · Sweden Damallsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	BK Hacken (W)	16	15	0	1	47	12	45
2	Hammarby (W)	16	13	2	1	40	8	41
3	Malmo FF (W)	16	8	5	3	33	10	29
4	Eskilstuna Utd (W)	16	8	2	6	17	17	26
5	Kristianstads (W)	16	7	4	5	28	25	25
6	AIK (W)	16	7	3	6	22	25	24
7	Vittsjö GIK (W)	16	6	4	6	17	19	22
8	Pitea IF (W)	16	5	4	7	19	25	19
9	Djurgardens (W)	16	5	3	8	21	26	18
10	Vaxjo (W)	16	5	2	9	21	30	17
11	Brommapojkarna (W)	16	5	2	9	20	33	17
12	IFK Norrkoping (W)	16	2	7	7	15	24	13
13	FC Rosengård (W)	16	2	5	9	17	23	11
14	IK Uppsala (W)	16	1	3	12	13	53	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pitea IF (W)	Vaxjo (W)
Brommapojkarna (W)	1-1 D	2-1 W
IK Uppsala (W)	5-1 W	4-0 W
Hammarby (W)	0-5 L	0-5 L
Malmo FF (W)	0-0 D	0-4 L
Eskilstuna Utd (W)	0-2 L	1-0 W
IFK Norrkoping (W)	2-1 W	0-0 D
Djurgardens (W)	0-1 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pitea IF (W)

LWLLDDLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Brommapojkarna (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	1-1	7	0	D
23/08	IK Uppsala (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	2-0	5-1	7	1	W
16/08	Hammarby (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-4	0-5	0	0	L
09/08	BK Hacken (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-2	1-4	2	2	L
31/07	Malmo FF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
25/06	Hammarby (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	1-1	2	0	D
18/06	Eskilstuna Utd (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-2	0-2	8	1	L
13/06	Brommapojkarna (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	1-2	6	1	L
30/05	IFK Norrkoping (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	2-0	2-1	3	1	W
22/05	Djurgardens (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	0-1	5	3	L

Vaxjo (W)

LLWDWLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Malmo FF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-2	0-4	12	1	L
22/08	Eskilstuna Utd (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	1-0	2	2	W
14/08	Djurgardens (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-2	2-3	6	2	L
07/08	FC Rosengård (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	2-0	2-0	7	1	W
31/07	Hammarby (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-3	0-5	1	0	L
24/06	Brommapojkarna (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-1	2-1	2	1	W
18/06	IFK Norrkoping (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
13/06	IK Uppsala (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	4-0	4-0	5	2	W
31/05	Malmo FF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-2	0-3	4	1	L
24/05	Vittsjö GIK (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	0-2	7	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pitea IF (W) vs Vaxjo (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Pitea IF (W) win (49%). Probabilities: Pitea IF (W) 49%, draw 25%, Vaxjo (W) 26%.

How many goals are expected in Pitea IF (W) vs Vaxjo (W)?

The model expects 2.92 goals (Pitea IF (W) 1.72 · Vaxjo (W) 1.19), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Pitea IF (W) vs Vaxjo (W)?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.